It’s looking like 2024 for Cybertruck deliveries

[SolarWizard]

Looks to coincide with the competitors start getting serious with EV Trucks at least GM with the Silverado I expect Ford to try to keep up

ford is developing a bespoke ev truck/bronco/ranger platform that will be built at the new factory in tennessee. The current generation of lightning will soldier on for some as a “ram classic” equivalent, geared towards work truck buyers.
Ram’s truck will be comparable to the approach chevy is taking in that it is ev from ground up.

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[ldjessee]

Ahem… the platform, factory, TX workforce, supply chain and DOJO.

Elon has big balls changing everything at once, really. Any one of those is a heavy lift. GigaTX and IDRA are why Cybertruck never happened in 2022. Out of the blocks recruitment in Austin wasn’t anything like what was expected and housing - a constraint. Lithium is not a SOP factor, but in out years of production is viewed - at risk. Biden’s subsidizing Tesla to home it’s processing stateside. But raw Li remains a highly contested variable Tesla would like to cap. AND DOJO…an experiment that may be unnecessary - a good thing. Engineers are training FSD on existing hardware. DOJO is now backup in the case FSD training doesn’t scale, the supercompute route will scale — IF they can get it to run as envisioned. Run is a software term of art that code architecture is compatible with a hardware stack to accomplish throughput data in meaningful, usable form. Tesla aren’t there yet.

DOJO and FSD are common to all Tesla cars at this point, so nothing new there... and DOJO is not in the car, it is what is used to build up/train the algorithm used to drive... so not new for Cybertruck.

Texas plant and workforce are already going for Model Y, both structural and non-structural battery packs, so nothing new there.

The truck is a new vehicle, if that is what you mean by new platform, but that would be true of any new vehicle at this point, as Tesla does not do 're-skin' jobs other manufacturers do (same car, slightly different cosmetic changes, maybe different options, but almost everything else is the same).

Supply chain for stainless steel will be new... but I think the 'glass' (transparent ceramics I think I have seen some people use for Alon and similar materials) is what the Semi windshield is made of? I think that was what made the Semi windshield so tough... but maybe that has changed.

The Semi event will probably update the published specs and might answer that question.

If not used for the Semi, then supply chain will be new for the Cybertruck for the Alon 'glass'.

DOJO is a way to train the AI / Algorithm faster. It only speeds up things, it is not a 'heavy' lift nor any lift. Elon has stated more than once now that if DOJO cannot outperform the NVIDIA GPU computer clusters, it will not be used for production.

Next years AI day will probably give us an update on that.. .but again, nothing required for the Cybertruck.

Castings are already done for Model Y. Sure, larger casting for the Cybertruck, but not new technology, just a refinement of existing technology and manufacturing techniques Tesla already uses.

So, the only new things for Cybertruck is Stainless Steel and maybe the glass.

Rear wheel steer is used on construction and farm equipment, military vehicles, and was even available to consumers for a while and is again with competition (Hummer EV), so not really going to put it in the new category. Could see putting it in a 'needs to be refined' category with castings for the Cybertruck.

 

[davelloydbrown]

My reservation number on the spreadsheet for CT deliveries shows my corrected number as 34 K which previously had me listed as getting my CT in Sept 2023. It has now changed and has me getting it in May of 2024.

I hope this is wrong but looking back to the model 3, it was first introduced in July of 2017 and I did not get mine until June of 2018 (I reserved on the first day in 2016). My vin says I got the 28 k model 3 produced. Although the model 3 role out was production hell according to Elon, the CT has a lot of unique features and represents a completely different vehicle with yet unknow challenges. It will also require significant ramp up of the 4680 as well as cold rolled stainless steel.

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