It’s looking like 2024 for Cybertruck deliveries

[Tinker71]

That was your take away? Huh...

I had the opposite feeling, with 4680 production tripling, Semi NOT using 4680 and still able to get the range they promised (and that it will be at no cargo loss compared to an ICE truck, probably thanks to the extra 2,000 lbs EV Class A trucks get), that means that that ever increasing number of 4680 cells are pretty much for the Model Y and Cybertruck.

I think they are sandbagging. I am expecting (assuming no great depression or world war) that it will be more like the Model Y launch, early (in that it will be before August of 2023) and ramp quickly.

Obviously, opinions differ.

I hate to be a realist, but the CT ramp probably won't be as fast as the Y. Y shared 80% parts with 3.
The folding process is new, the gigacast is bigger and Tesla struggled with the front cast on the Y (rev ? Y)

This all said, the team that builds the factory that builds the car is getting better every year. Telsa is a true manufacturing expert now. Big, but innovative and flexible at the same time. This is the true story.

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[cvalue13]

Elon Musk has said that Tesla plans to produce the Cybertruck in volume in 2023. He has not changed that statement…. I will take Elon at his prediction until he fails to meet the prediction.

I thought that Elon’s CT timing predictions were the one thing we’re free to not believe? (They certainly have a low reliability factor, historically.)

Personally, I believe many inside Tesla are not confident that CTs will be shipping (at any material volume) even in 2024.

If that is true that people within Tesla are dubious of CT timing (understanding it is controversial, but for the sake of argument), it merely means that all the present outward-facing indices of progress (Elon’s comments, delivery of equipment, etc.) is more about companies doing company things (i.e., keeping up appearances and setting aggressive expectations despite known headwinds) rather than being information with good predictive value.

 

[jerhenderson]

50k Cybertruck’s manufactured in 2023? That’s an extremely optimistic timeline.

If SOP starts mid 2023 Tesla would need to pop out 1,924 Cybertruck’s per week.

there's no painting required so assembly should be faster than a car.

 

[charliemagpie]

Tesla will produce the CT, it will sell in the Hundreds of thousands. Not Hundreds or thousands.

A new narrative to prop up Legacy will be needed.


Ooops sorry, heard it already. "Thats only our first version"

 

[cyberboi]

These delays are so annoying.

 

[RMK!]

I thought that Elon’s CT timing predictions were the one thing we’re free to not believe? (They certainly have a low reliability factor, historically.)

Personally, I believe many inside Tesla are not confident that CTs will be shipping (at any material volume) even in 2024.

If that is true that people within Tesla are dubious of CT timing (understanding it is controversial, but for the sake of argument), it merely means that all the present outward-facing indices of progress (Elon’s comments, delivery of equipment, etc.) is more about companies doing company things (i.e., keeping up appearances and setting aggressive expectations despite known headwinds) rather than being information with good predictive value.

That (the bolded part) is a prime example of a statement totally lacking "good predictive value". Uninformed speculation on what "people within Tesla" think or feel is a basis for the general FUD that follows Tesla like a virus. The company and it's founder are of course inoculated from this but for the general populace, the I read it somewhere statement is exactly how some of this crap is initiated, intentional or not.

 

[cvalue13]

That (the bolded part) is a prime example of a statement totally lacking "good predictive value". Uninformed speculation on what "people within Tesla" think or feel is a basis for the general FUD that follows Tesla like a virus. The company and it's founder are of course inoculated from this but for the general populace, the I read it somewhere statement is exactly how some of this crap is initiated, intentional or not.

do with it what you want, but don’t get butthurt

I live in Austin, and unable to say much more: it’s not “read somewhere”

 

[davelloydbrown]

There is a spreadsheet that monitors reservations and tells you when you should get your CT

I reserved on the first day you could online and I have a model 3 to trade in (when the model 3 came out previous tesla owners got first deliveries) so the spreadsheet estimates that I should get mine in September 2023.
Considering all the problems Elon had with the model 3 launch, I also ordered it on the first day in 2016 and received it in September 2018 (23 k model 3 made) after a two year wait.
It is now 3 years since I ordered my CT and it will be 4 years before I hopefully get it so that should be more than enough time for them to sort out the production issues considering all they have learned over the past 4-5 years since the model 3 ramp.

 

[Geo9598]

Sorry, but I just don’t see SOP in mid 2023. That’s roughly 160 business days from now. It’s Tesla’s first truck using a brand new manufacturing method. Many unforeseen challenges lie ahead before volume production can begin.

2023 will be an exciting year for reservation holders however. We will finally see pre-production CT’s on the streets as engineers validate the various systems before production begins. The true dimensions of the truck should also come into focus next year.

So… How much is Elon going to raise the CT price on us? Anyone have a clue?

 

[Crissa]

Tesla will produce the CT, it will sell in the Hundreds of thousands. Not Hundreds or thousands.

Millions. There may be a million preorders. Do you know how many Model 3 or Model Y preorders vs deliveries since the first? Millions.

-Crissa

 

[azjohn]

These delays are so annoying.

Expect early 2024 which will coincide when other EV Truck companies will have serious models

 

[charliemagpie]

Millions. There may be a million preorders. Do you know how many Model 3 or Model Y preorders vs deliveries since the first? Millions.

-Crissa

Billions

 

[CostcoSamples]

I think 25k to 50k units in 2023 is reasonable. lots of kinks to iron out in first couple months of production but then it will ramp quickly. Tesla will put the A team on the job.

 

[fritter63]

That is what I gained from yesterdays earnings report. it sounds like we will see pre-production Cybertruck’s running around Austin but volume production won’t happen until 2024. A few lucky buyers may receive their trucks in late 2023 however.

 

[speach]

I can say I pined away for a Tesla of any kind for years. I finally got tired of waiting for the CT, and was in a position to take the plunge on a P100D Model S (keeping my tow vehicle for boats, etc). I could not be happier. I love (love love) this car, and believe when the CT does finally come out, I'll be ready for it. I would recommend to anyone else who is waiting for the CT for their first Tesla, don't. Go buy a S3XY now (if you are able).

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