Microfactories HW3 FSD Fix

[YDR37]

If you buy a car without FSD, you don't get that capability at a later date, you got exactly what you ordered, a car that could have been purchased with FSD, but wasn't.

If you buy a car without FSD, you can totally get that capability at a later date. If you buy a car without FSD, and then decide -- maybe months or years later -- that you want FSD after all, Tesla will be happy to provide you with an FSD subscription (or in the past, even an FSD purchase).

In fact, Tesla currently offers a 30-day free trial of FSD to new owners. The whole point of that program is to get people who bought a Tesla without FSD to add that capability at a later date.

The issue is that if you have an HW3 vehicle, you will get a second-rate FSD experience compared to an AI4 vehicle. And you will never get unsupervised FSD.

And that appears to conflict with Tesla's previous claims about HW3:

"All cars being produced have the all the hardware necessary, compute and otherwise, for full self-driving. I'll say that again. All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self-driving. All you need to do is improve the software."

- Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, Autonomy Day 2019

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[YDR37]

They didn't pay for FSD functionality, did they?

No, but they did pay for the option of FSD functionality. They paid for FSD-capable hardware, so that they (or a subsequent owner) would have the option to use FSD in the future. As noted in the previous post, it is perfectly possible to get FSD months or years after an initial vehicle purchase.

Tesla said, "last chance to buy FSD", right?

Yes, but you don't have to buy FSD outright in order to get FSD functionality. Tesla continues to offer FSD subscriptions, right?

Those with HW3 who bought FSD should expect an upgrade path

Yes, and those with HW3 who didn't buy FSD may also have legal grounds for an upgrade path, based on Tesla's (incorrect) assurances that HW3 vehicles had "all the hardware necessary, both compute and otherwise, for full self-driving":

This matters beyond just FSD buyers because the “all hardware needed” claim affected every Tesla buyer’s purchasing decision and every Tesla’s resale value. Some plaintiffs are now pursuing this broader theory — arguing that the false hardware claim constitutes fraud that impacted all ~4 million HW3 vehicles, not just the ones whose owners paid for the FSD package.

Again, I'm not a lawyer and cannot judge the merits of this claim. I'm just pointing out that it exists.

 

[Gigahorse]

All we know is what Elon said today:

My interpretation: if you bought an HW3 Tesla vehicle, and you bought FSD, you will be able to take it to a Tesla store and trade it in on a newer AI4 vehicle. In this situation, Tesla will provide a significant (but unspecified) discount on the AI4 vehicle, so you will be able to upgrade to an AI4 vehicle at a relatively low cost. That's my guess, but I could be wrong.

Alternatively, you could keep your old HW3 vehicle but upgrade to AI4 hardware after the new "micro-factory" network is established, as per the previous post. The cost of the upgrade is not clear. Maybe it is free if you own an HW3 vehicle and bought FSD. Maybe you have to pay if you own an HW3 vehicle, but did not buy FSD. We don't know, and Tesla has not provided much detail as yet.

The first offer is likely going to be a dud for most.
The jump for people on HW3 who's cars are now worth $11k bluebook dropping $45k on a new M3 or MY is going to be pretty small.
Those 5 year old Teslas are paid for, by people who hang onto cars, a $2k value in trade in bump is not going to motivate many to drop the detla of 30k to go to HW3 and get cooled seats.

 

[YDR37]

a $2k value in trade in bump is not going to motivate many

The discount could potentially be more than that. One analyst is suggesting $4k to $6k:

Tesla will offer a compelling alternative [to HW3 hardware upgrades]. Affected owners will have the option to accept a special discount on the trade-in of their vehicle, which will go toward the purchase of a brand-new AI4-equipped vehicle.

Tesla didn’t go into further detail about the discount, but we would expect it to be roughly equivalent to the cost of the new FSD hardware and labor. We’d expect about a $4-$6k discount toward a new vehicle. The discount would have to be less than the cost of FSD, or Tesla would simply offer a refund of the FSD purchase.

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[Cayden Thompson]

The discount could potentially be more than that. One analyst is suggesting $4k to $6k:
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Should be double that plus the transfer IMO.

 

[not_elon_]

They should just offer buybacks of the lifetime FSD for all HW3 or prior vehicles. That would give Elon his precious subscription based business potential and solve their obligation problem.

 

[Gigahorse]

The discount could potentially be more than that. One analyst is suggesting $4k to $6k:
.

Yea, still a pretty terrible financial decision to give up a good condition 2021 for cooled seats, a lightbar, and the promised 14.3 FSD which still has a long way to go.
Think Tesla is going to have to make the discount 2x that to move the needle much and going to end up paying for a lot of those hardware upgrades out of pocket.

 

[Cayden Thompson]

Yea, still a pretty terrible financial decision to give up a good condition 2021 for cooled seats, a lightbar, and the promised 14.3 FSD which still has a long way to go.
Think Tesla is going to have to make the discount 2x that to move the needle much and going to end up paying for a lot of those hardware upgrades out of pocket.

Ditto. I actually prefer the looks and seats on the OG Model Y. I wouldn't want to get a new one.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Yea, still a pretty terrible financial decision to give up a good condition 2021 for cooled seats, a lightbar, and the promised 14.3 FSD which still has a long way to go.
Think Tesla is going to have to make the discount 2x that to move the needle much and going to end up paying for a lot of those hardware upgrades out of pocket.

I agree. I would have to get two market quotes and a Tesla quote, and the Tesla quote would need to exceed the value of both market quotes by a few thousand dollars over the price I paid for FSD ($10K) for me to consider trade in. Even then, I don't think I make the jump. It made more sense when there was a different model to move up to (S or X), but moving into a slightly refined version or what I have at a high new vehicle cost isn't a great motivator.

For reference, I have never purchased the same model vehicle twice in a row from any manufacturer and I doubt I ever will. Getting a new vehicle is exciting and the best time to get a new life experience. It is a big problem with Tesla's streamlined vehicle offering, I don't mind staying within a manufacturer, but I do mind staying within the same model.

 

[DECO]

Most cost effective: financial incentives to owners of HW3 vehicles to trade in for HW4.

Unless you want to stay with a Model S or X

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