Musk's Promise to Sell 20 Million Teslas Hinges on This One Thing Nothing happens without a battery.

hridge2020

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Elon Musk has, for years, been making big promises about the future of electric vehicles and Tesla (TSLA) in particular, saying last spring that the carmaker would sell as many as 20 million cars per year.

Musk is known for not always following through on big promises, especially when it comes to specific days and numbers. He previously said that full-driving capabilities for Teslas would come in "three months maybe, six months definitely" back in 2018 while it still hasn't happened.

A Tesla semi truck was also promised by 2019 but deliveries are only now expected by the coming December.

This Is What Needs To Happen Before Tesla Starts Selling 20 Million Cars Annually
According to a new report released by Reuters, one major thing is standing in between Musk's promise to sell that many Teslas every year -- the 4680 battery that the company announced back in 2020.

Similarly to how semiconductors are a largely unnoticed but crucial part of any smartphone, a powerful EV battery is indispensable to any electric car. Due to the use of dry-coating and more efficient cell-to-pack structure, the 4680 is reported to have five times more energy and six times more power of the 2170 battery.

Car companies like BMW (BMWYY) are also rushing to start using the 4680 battery in new models but, according to 12 experts close to Tesla that Reuters interviewed, production is nowhere near where it needs to be for them to become commonplace.

"I think [Musk] will solve it, but it won't be as quick as he likes," one expert with close ties to Tesla told Reuters. "It's going to take some time to really test it."

"They just aren't ready for mass production," said another.

All experts were kept anonymous to speculate and talk freely on the company information available to them.

The Future of Teslas and EVs
As it is one of the few carmakers to manufacture their own batteries, Tesla is in a better position to ramp up production than most competitors.

Acquiring energy company Maxwell Technologies for $200 million in 2019 also left Musk's brainchild with the know-how and technology to start making 4680 batteries despite reselling it in 2021.

But at the same time, Tesla is dealing with many of the same problems as the rest of the EV industry — supply chain disruption means that many of the materials needed to make the battery are in short supply while the thicker coat means coating takes more time and cannot be done at the same mass-produced levels.

"They can produce in small volume, but when they started big volume production, Tesla ended up with many rejects, too many," another anonymous source told Reuters.

But as some of Reuters' sources predict that a 4680 battery can save as much as $5,500 on production of each Model Y battery, both Tesla and Musk certainly have incentive to ramp up production.

"Bulking up the battery cell helped a lot in boosting efficiency, but pushing for 50% cost savings for the cell as a whole is another matter," one more source told Reuters. "That will depend on whether Tesla can deploy the dry-coating process successfully in a factory."

NOTE: This article was updated to clarify that the Tesla Semi is expected by December 2022 instead of 2023.


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charliemagpie

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We are already at V2 of the 4680, and I suspected all along.. the issue isn't getting there, but getting to full production with a small reject rate.

It occurred to me when Elon said they are recycling (the equivalent?) 50 packs per week. Where do they come from ?

Some certainly from service centers...some from insurance... but 50 per week? .. so I think they are production rejects.

And if production was reaching 1000 packs per week prior to V2. Drawing a long bow, I guess it may have been 5% reject rate.

I think it would have been closer to that than not.

So now we can maybe say.. with V2 we are well above 95% and have already given the green light to mass produce the equipment to make V2.
 

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I don't get why Tesla is selling hinges now and why that's so important all of a sudden? 🤣 :p
 

charliemagpie

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I don't get why Tesla is selling hinges now and why that's so important all of a sudden? 🤣 :p
If I'm doing Donuts on a hillside using my diamond steering, I need piano hinges to hold the doors. :ROFLMAO:
 

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Elon Musk has, for years, been making big promises about the future of electric vehicles and Tesla (TSLA) in particular, saying last spring that the carmaker would sell as many as 20 million cars per year.

Musk is known for not always following through on big promises, especially when it comes to specific days and numbers. He previously said that full-driving capabilities for Teslas would come in "three months maybe, six months definitely" back in 2018 while it still hasn't happened.

A Tesla semi truck was also promised by 2019 but deliveries are only now expected by the coming December.

This Is What Needs To Happen Before Tesla Starts Selling 20 Million Cars Annually
According to a new report released by Reuters, one major thing is standing in between Musk's promise to sell that many Teslas every year -- the 4680 battery that the company announced back in 2020.

Similarly to how semiconductors are a largely unnoticed but crucial part of any smartphone, a powerful EV battery is indispensable to any electric car. Due to the use of dry-coating and more efficient cell-to-pack structure, the 4680 is reported to have five times more energy and six times more power of the 2170 battery.

Car companies like BMW (BMWYY) are also rushing to start using the 4680 battery in new models but, according to 12 experts close to Tesla that Reuters interviewed, production is nowhere near where it needs to be for them to become commonplace.

"I think [Musk] will solve it, but it won't be as quick as he likes," one expert with close ties to Tesla told Reuters. "It's going to take some time to really test it."

"They just aren't ready for mass production," said another.

All experts were kept anonymous to speculate and talk freely on the company information available to them.

The Future of Teslas and EVs
As it is one of the few carmakers to manufacture their own batteries, Tesla is in a better position to ramp up production than most competitors.

Acquiring energy company Maxwell Technologies for $200 million in 2019 also left Musk's brainchild with the know-how and technology to start making 4680 batteries despite reselling it in 2021.

But at the same time, Tesla is dealing with many of the same problems as the rest of the EV industry — supply chain disruption means that many of the materials needed to make the battery are in short supply while the thicker coat means coating takes more time and cannot be done at the same mass-produced levels.

"They can produce in small volume, but when they started big volume production, Tesla ended up with many rejects, too many," another anonymous source told Reuters.

But as some of Reuters' sources predict that a 4680 battery can save as much as $5,500 on production of each Model Y battery, both Tesla and Musk certainly have incentive to ramp up production.

"Bulking up the battery cell helped a lot in boosting efficiency, but pushing for 50% cost savings for the cell as a whole is another matter," one more source told Reuters. "That will depend on whether Tesla can deploy the dry-coating process successfully in a factory."

NOTE: This article was updated to clarify that the Tesla Semi is expected by December 2022 instead of 2023.


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Tesla can build and sell 20 million cars a year without the Semi, Roadster, or Cybertruck. Each of the 4 Giga factories is capable of building more than a million cars a year. If they build more factories they can make and sell more cars … regardless of the cell chemistry and structure they use.

a funny thing about journalism is that you are entitled to not share your sources but that eliminates the credibility of the claims. Who would not want to have their views credited to them unless they cannot back their claims? So 12 so-called experts are withholding their names? And you believe the story? Interesting.

I saw an interesting “The Limiting Factor” video today where Jordan went over the 4680 production status. You should consider looking at it. Another thing, you might consider watching some “Best In Tesla” videos because he may be a super fan boy but he does present convincing arguments. In a recent video he talked about Tesla’s ability to produce vehicles and, just as importantly, the ability for other manufacturers to do the same.
 


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Due to the use of dry-coating and more efficient cell-to-pack structure, the 4680 is reported to have five times more energy and six times more power of the 2170 battery.
This sentence is terrible grammatically and incorrect on the facts. The dry-coating makes the battery more efficient to build, not store energy. It is more efficient for storing energy only at the pack level. The 5x number is merely because it's literally 5x larger per cell. Same for the 6x. Ugh.

-Crissa
 

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This sentence is terrible grammatically and incorrect on the facts. The dry-coating makes the battery more efficient to build, not store energy. It is more efficient for storing energy only at the pack level. The 5x number is merely because it's literally 5x larger per cell. Same for the 6x. Ugh.

-Crissa
Jordan (The Limiting Factor) yesterday had a new video that talked about this, and according to him there is a difference in how the particles are distributed between wet and dry electrode deposition processes that [at least] impacts the efficiency of charge transfer so it will affect charging and discharging rates. I do not know if it affects charge density - maybe not.
 

Bill906

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This sentence is terrible grammatically and incorrect on the facts. The dry-coating makes the battery more efficient to build, not store energy. It is more efficient for storing energy only at the pack level. The 5x number is merely because it's literally 5x larger per cell. Same for the 6x. Ugh.

-Crissa
Are you saying my 5 gallon bucket can hold 5 times the water as your 1 gallon bucket isn't because of the new state-of-the-edge, cutting-art technology it uses?
 

Crissa

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Jordan (The Limiting Factor) yesterday had a new video that talked about this, and according to him there is a difference in how the particles are distributed between wet and dry electrode deposition processes that [at least] impacts the efficiency of charge transfer so it will affect charging and discharging rates. I do not know if it affects charge density - maybe not.
Yeah, the better heat dispersion and shorter electron paths could really help charge/discharge rates and reliability. It's also why a larger cell is even possible. Of course, that we won't know until thousands have been cycled tens of thousands of times.

-Crissa
 

rr6013

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Jordan’s video made imminent sense after connecting all the dots in my head of a roadmap. Of course, first principles you always take your hardest shot first. At leastvthat how I shoot pool and other things. Thus Tesla could have focused on anode, leaving the low hanging fruit team on cathode.
Very well, it could be that cathode is constrained. It not like they need to solve two problems anode and cathode. At least, if report’s are factually accurate they have a 4680 battery. Its not like they are Lone Ranger on the 4680. Tesla’s got Panasonic and CATL on contract who have their proprietary chemistries.
Tesla’s damn the torpedoes-full speed ahead. Its producing Semi, rolling out new Powerwall, build more Megapacks and appear to be going with what they got. What they have maybe dry/wet 4680 but if they get carbon cathode dry process too, Tesla achieve “Holy grail” both anode+cathode same mother material composition.

That was my takeaway from Jordan’s video. Steady she goes!
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