Non FS what if.

[HaulingAss]

True, Tesla is driving down the prices consumers pay for automobiles in general. Tesla cracked the whip and legacy auto heard it. Major automakers have been brainstorming since 2020 trying to figure out how to bring costs down, not so much the old way, by pinching pennines and cheapening everything up, but by re-thinking the entire process of how they make cars. They cannot change quickly, but they know they have to constantly strive to make better cars for less money or become irrelevant. Even though they still make and sell cars in larger volume than Tesla, they are no longer King of the hill. Their only hope is to extend sales of cars that Tesla doesn't make, ICE cars, and convince consumers that EVs are not quite ready for prime-time yet.

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[Crissa]

We’re not debating value but let’s get our facts straight. With your 26% increase of pricing at release...

They had the requirement to estimate inflation. So you're forgetting that it wasn't inflation since 2019 we should be looking at, it's inflation higher than trendline. They should have estimated 4% inflation as a trendline, as basic accounting. So over five years $50k should have gone up by $10k. Inflation from 2020 to 2024 would have hit that price by $9k.

Maybe they used a lower estimate, or specific supplies went up higher but... It's still way out of line with inflatIon. Inflation was legally required to be included in estimated prices.

Couple that with cooling ev demand and

There is no evidence EV demand has cooled, so much as 'demand for expensive vehicles'.

...which definitely applies to Rivian, but not to EVs in general.

The singular reason for the two big misses (price and range) of the Cybertruck vis-a-vis the 2019 reveal was the broad failure of the 4680. Tesla expected to hit targets for energy density and cost of that battery that now, nearly five years later, have still yet to be achieved - and may very well never be.

This is not true. The only target the 4680 isn't hitting is time to market. It has the density and charging speeds they estimated. Their original design for the 500 mile pack was double-layered according to reporting in 2019.

It goes back to the chickens....

2019: dozen eggs! $ .79
2023: dozen eggs! $ 3.99
2023: end of the year, dozen eggs! $ 5.99

Damn greedy chickens are baiting me!! (Why is always the chickens?)

Eggs at my store cost $5 a dozen in 2019.
They cost $6 a dozen today in 2024.
And that's California-grown, required-space and natural light, organic extra-large.

Maybe you should talk to your egg supplier.

-Crissa

 

[Jason Carlisle]

Add one extra and no longer get the tax deduction. I’m really interested to see how this plays out.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

That is what people are missing. The Cybertruck comes with a lot of features that weren't originally envisioned (and left out some that Tesla hadn't fully thought through).

There is certainly plenty of valid criticism that stems from the fact that the Cybertruck project was really only active for 3 months before the reveal in November 2019 and the design and included features morphed over the development. Tesla hadn't fully thought out the implications of the 3500 lb. payload capacity on tire choices, suspension and damping considerations, etc. Tesla also didn't fully analyze the implications of having a ramp built into the tailgate. So, in these ways, we got less.

But the Cybertruck that was announced did not envision cooled and ventilated seats, steer-by-wire and four-wheel steering. During the development process they realized their original idea of just a big, tough, basic truck would have too many downsides for too many potential buyers. It's lack of maneuverability and nimbleness would limit its appeal. At some point after the reveal, Elon announced the Cybertruck would be an insane technology bandwagon, demonstrating many future automotive technologies. Tesla was going to use the Cybertruck to develop the car of the future. 48V system voltage, steer-by-wire, etc. I think Tesla upped the chromium content of the stainless shell (above what was originally envisioned) to make it even more resistant to corrosion and easier to care for (that would increase material costs).

Yes, the price did balloon due to a number of factors, some of which were out of Tesla's control and others were due to a deliberate moving the bar higher and the fact that the original prices were optimistic to begin with. What we got 5 years later is a much better product, at a much higher price.

Having been using the Cybertruck for the last two months and over 1800 miles, about 1/3 or more of that off-road, I am over the moon with it's capabilities. It's a bang-up good driver on the road and it truly impresses in the backcountry. No other vehicle in the world can come close to matching this combination of capabilities/range of uses. The hard stainless shell is also incredibly useful, especially off-road, and easy to care for. The narrative that it's troublesome to care for is inexplicable to me.

Had GM or Ford decided to make a truck this nice, this advanced, this tough, and this capable, it would have taken over a decade of development, and they would have to price it at $150K or more. It would be a colossal failure. Instead, Tesla is putting their nose to the grindstone and figuring out how to bring us a lot more for less. It's a win for the environment, a win for consumers and it will be a win for Tesla if they can continue to increase production efficiencies.

People who think it's overpriced don't have a clue what they are talking about. It's not just a legacy truck with unique styling, it's radically better, right down to its core. And its pretty amazing Tesla was able to achieve this with their first iteration of a truck. They really did hit it out of the park!

Been driving mine for a month, over 1,200 miles in. I think your post is spot on, the CT does a lot more than most trucks, but it's hard to appreciate unless you're behind the wheel. I know that I didn't really get the CT until I had it for a while.

I had a Lightning and it was an amazing truck. It was also the kind of truck that is a minor step forward compared to other trucks on the market. Due to this, a $60k-70k Lightning is exceptional value, it does everything a truck should do and it does it well.

Can Tesla deliver something close to the FS offering at $72k after tax rebate? If so, then I don't see any other truck on the market at the same price that is competitive. The value truck remains the Lightning ($50k-ish lowest trim after tax and incentives), but the only option that makes sense at $70k-80k is a CT. Things get complicated once you pass the tax rebate, lots of compelling and different vehicles (towing = Silverado, fastest = CT, open air = Hummer, small/lifestyle = R1T Quad).

My other comparisons were EV only, but if adding ICE I look at the highest trim Raptor being priced at about $115k well optioned. The Beast compares very well with this truck in functionality, so the pricing seems right still. At $72k, you're only a few thousand bucks over a Lariat F-150, so the pricing seems spot on. When people are talking inflation and speaking to eggs, that is meaningless. Inflation is not the same across products, and in fact vehicle prices were one of the main drivers of higher inflation while other products did not increase in cost at the same rate. The inflation calculator people use is an average across all different products, some things may be up 2% and others 30%, you need to compare apples to apples. This truck comparison shows you exactly why the CT is priced how it is.

My guess is the AWD will be the same truck as the FS without the known options (premium wheels, FSD, accessories). Maybe a few small things are yanked, like cooled seats or rear heated seats, but it will be minor stuff. If anything material is taken out, the CT would no longer match up to interior features of the Lariat, so Tesla cannot get cheap. The RWD is where I'm interested to see what features remain, it seems like there is no way can they put out all the features of their premium lineup (X/S), like air suspension, at a value price.

 

[Gurule92]

Add one extra and no longer get the tax deduction. I’m really interested to see how this plays out.

Yea that's less awesome but I'm fine with it because the extras can be bought after. Unlike the model X 7 seat

 

[HaulingAss]

Add one extra and no longer get the tax deduction. I’m really interested to see how this plays out.

Software options like FSD do not count against the price ceiling for purposes of getting the tax credit.

 

[Jason Carlisle]

Yes but heated seats do. Can’t imagine spending 72K on a car without it but 9K for it is also crazy. Heated steering wheel, premium sound, wheels, lots of things could knock it over 80K

Software options like FSD do not count against the price ceiling for purposes of getting the tax credit.

 

[Crissa]

Check out Crissa's posting skills ?

Walmart near my house has 60 eggs for 7.99

Oh, I read that wrong x-x

Whoops ^-^ 60 is a number. That's like, alot of eggs!

-Crissa

 

[Gurule92]

Yes but heated seats do. Can’t imagine spending 72K on a car without it but 9K for it is also crazy. Heated steering wheel, premium sound, wheels, lots of things could knock it over 80K

None of those things have been taken out of a dual motor Tesla that I know of and there is no reason to believe they would start now.

Also, as of now, all of that is standard in all forms of CT including RWD within the site code

 

[kbolt]

Anything higher than 79.9k and i think a whole lot of people walk. The tax incentive forces tesla to stay below 80k

If it's under 80k and gets the incentive I pull the trigger immediately!

 

[Gurule92]

If it's under 80k and gets the incentive I pull the trigger immediately!

SAAAAAAAAAME.

I was hoping to have a few more things in order before it gets here but if elon right now was like, yo, do you want this 79k truck? I'd be like im omw to the factory bro

 

[kbolt]

SAAAAAAAAAME.

I was hoping to have a few more things in order before it gets here but if elon right now was like, yo, do you want this 79k truck? I'd be like im omw to the factory bro

Had anyone done that? Elon said people would be able to take delivery from Texas

 

[Idrenak]

For me, the gotta-have-it phase is over. When the non-FS does become available, the price will need to be right AND I will need to be able to test drive the vehicle. I cannot make a purchase without seeing if it is comfortable and I enjoy driving it. I can always just keep my Model-X.

Do I still want it? Absolutely, but it will need to be a rational decision.

I'm right there with you. I'll hold out until 1st quarter of next year but after that I'm going a different route. My Ram pickup is getting up in miles and I'm not buying a fill in pu to get me through to a CT delivery. I'd like to have a CT but I can certainly live without one.

 

[Gurule92]

I'm right there with you. I'll hold out until 1st quarter of next year but after that I'm going a different route. My Ram pickup is getting up in miles and I'm not buying a fill in pu to get me through to a CT delivery. I'd like to have a CT but I can certainly live without one.

You guys should find someone with one as cool as @Chris9702L to let you check theirs out! After driving and actually seeing it im committed. Unless they screw me again on price when FS goes away

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