people may be reporting the wrong day. many are using the confirmation email and others are using when they placed it and others may be guessing at the date. We do see obvious incorrect dates reported to the tracker. some even before the cybertruck event which would not be possible.
As a check, someone more interested than I could set up an order for a CT and a MY and hit the enter button at the same time and see if you got sequential order numbers. THAT would show that I'm right and that a LOT of what we thought were CT orders were, in fact, actually MY, M3, and MS orders.
Yikes, that would invalidate so much work on the Cybertruck Tracker!
what if we expand the cybertruck tracker to track all tesla orders? we could then approx the infil rate and still back out cybertruck trends. would require getting say model y orders to contribute to the tracker.
I know. There may be a way to figure out how many S3XY cars were ordered during that same timeframe to extrapolate the number of CTs ordered...
Exactly, we are on the same wavelength - just updated the tracker to handle all tesla reservations to include solar and energy. Now have to get the word out and have people add their reservation numbers even for items already delivered (particularly those reserved after 11/21/2019). I also ripped up and redid our adjustment factors. After you mentioned the Model Y RN you had, it appears that the sudden increase in RN growth coincided with Model Y start of deliveries. I took out the inflection but really need hard data to back the presumption up. Here is a plot of uncorrected and corrected RNs. removed the inflection. It also appears Tesla reuses RNs. See all the blue dots below the trend. Either these are reused RNs or people are submitting grossly incorrect dates.
Quite a bit of a challenge. People will always find a way to break any input form. You'd have to have some kind of warning that pops up if they enter a date/RN range that didn't make sense. Plus, how in the world would we know if Tesla reused a PN? That could cause someone ordering today thinking he was ahead of a LOT of people. Yikes! Also, this chart is really cool. Good job!Exactly, we are on the same wavelength - just updated the tracker to handle all tesla reservations to include solar and energy. Now have to get the word out and have people add their reservation numbers even for items already delivered (particularly those reserved after 11/21/2019). I also ripped up and redid our adjustment factors. After you mentioned the Model Y RN you had, it appears that the sudden increase in RN growth coincided with Model Y start of deliveries. I took out the inflection but really need hard data to back the presumption up. Here is a plot of uncorrected and corrected RNs. removed the inflection. It also appears Tesla reuses RNs. See all the blue dots below the trend. Either these are reused RNs or people are submitting grossly incorrect dates.
for cybertruck I use the curve fit to adjust the RN to date in cases that it looks like a resuse. however, I am not convinced many 'reuses' are really people entering the wrong date. In otherwise with a fit of RN vs date I can identify outliers by setting a threshold for variance from the fit.
It's 100USDollars in the US, 150CanadianDollars (which is not much more than 100US) in Canada.
You can't count on getting the 4615th off the line for many reasons. -We don't know how geography will play into the sequence. (That is, if the lowest RN is in Florida, the second-lowest is in NY, and the next five are in California, no way the first seven would be delivered in RN sequence, and if you're outside of the US, another layer of uncertainty). -How you want yours configured will affect delivery, and nobody knows how. -Maybe Tesla ownership will give priority. -Cancellations are likely. But thanks for explaining the meaning of the first six charactersIts just a sequential number starting around 1127xxxxx. RN = Reservation Number
11=November. 27 should be 21 for reveal date, so obviously I have no idea what happened there...
So, take your number, subtract 112747133 (lowest number I personally have seen here) and that is your approximate position in line.
My number is 112751748, so my position is (very approxiametly) 4,615.
Correct. This is widely accepted/understood. However it still gives you a general idea of how soon you will be asked to configure and receive your Tesla.
Thanks for posting that list. But when I tried it with my number, RN112825894 (twice), it said it couldn't find it. Any idea why?
