Chris9702L

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RN 112831….
I’m 112842 and still thinking middle of the year. Two factors - one, I’m thinking of the S curve. Right now they are just starting out, slowly ramping, figuring stuff out and ironing out the process. It should take a couple months before they are punching them out like clockwork. Second, I think don’t price, specs, and changing circumstances they will have a take rate of less than 50% so we are closer than you think.

crazy math
250,000 a year production run
20,8000 per month
5,400 per week
770 per day (7 day week)
Roughly 1 every minute! 🤪

I think a Model 3/Y gets born every 30-40 seconds
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crazy math
250,000 a year production run
20,8000 per month
5,400 per week
770 per day (7 day week)
Roughly 1 every minute! 🤪

I think a Model 3/Y gets born every 30-40 seconds
i hope you get yours sooner rather than later!

But there is a problem with your math.
250,000/yr (Elon's target)
20,833/month (that works)
4,807/week (I used 250k / 52wks per year, there aren't 4 weeks/month, there are 4.3333 wks/mo)
686/day (7 day week)
For a 12 hour day, that is 1 every 63 seconds
For a 10 hour day, 1 every 52.5 seconds

But how many lines are there that create the CT at that rate? If you can build a 3/Y every 30-40 seconds, how many lines are building the 3/Y? If you assume Tesla is running a 12 hour shift to build all their cars, and the CT is building 250k/yr on 1 complete line (maybe 4 GigaPresses to feed that 1 complete line) and they add another complete line, then you are building a CT every 31.5 seconds, right up there with the 3/Y. If you add a 3rd line, then you are at 1 every 21 seconds. Without comparing the number of workers and total lines, then you can't fairly compare the average time between new cars.

What would be interesting is, from the moment the initial work begins on a CT, to the time that exact casting (or battery, or skin, whatever the long pole in the tent might be) rolls off the line as a deliverable car, what is THAT amount of time? And how does that compare with the other 4 models?
 

joesdayjob

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the forum is very confusing to me. there is 100 dif posts that all seem the same ... my cyberbeast was jan to march delivery , when will i get it now ?
 

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Sweet. Ordered 4/8/2020 and number 630,195 according to this. 😅😂
Sounds about right in terms of RN, but no one knows what the conversion rate is or will be (it probably changes based on many things) nor how VINs are being sent out, or deliveries, so if patience doesn't work (it doesn't work so well for me either), then you might have to look into mind-altering substances :) to stay sane.
 


Cybertruck 1974

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the forum is very confusing to me. there is 100 dif posts that all seem the same ... my cyberbeast was jan to march delivery , when will i get it now ?
2025, maybe. there's a lot of variables and there's no actual data to show how many have been built, sold, delivered. It's all made up really. Im guessing of course and this message will self destruct in 10 seconds, 9, 8, 7......
 

joesdayjob

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why would they promise jan to march delivery and then add an extra year ?
 

Cybertruck 1974

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why would they promise jan to march delivery and then add an extra year ?
because, it's an empty promise. Bait and hook. Im guilty of it too. I saw that and said, ok at least it will be in my driveway to use for work by end of first quarter 2024 (March) That will surely not happen through with how slow it's produced and the demand we saw 12/8, 12/9 in the thousands of orders since then and my order 12/22 won't happen anytime soon. Sad but true.
 

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Is there someone who keeps the date estimates up to date on the reservation tracker? Or are these dates the estimates that stood before production even started? Has anyone figured out an estimate of the number of people passing or canceling their reservation?
 

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Is there someone who keeps the date estimates up to date on the reservation tracker? Or are these dates the estimates that stood before production even started? Has anyone figured out an estimate of the number of people passing or canceling their reservation?
That whole thing was put in place around the time of the unveiling in 2019. I wouldn’t put any faith in those predictions whatsoever.

In order to have any predictability, whatsoever, we have to get beyond the FS production altogether, because it has to be predicated on a consistent pattern that includes a regular progression through the RNs that is only happening somewhat now.

if you have a relatively low RN, and by that I mean that Tesla has in some way acknowledged to you that you are a low reservation holder, then you can hope (like me) that they will continue sending invitations until they get to your RN. They are sending invitations to at least 10,000 RNs per week (we do not know if they are sending to each and every RN in that group). Last week they hit more like 30,000. That translates to the last number in RN11296, RN11297, RN11398. If they continue, and continue at the slowest rate of 10,000 per week, they will get into my range (RN11302) in about 4 weeks. If they went at this last week’s rate they might get to my range next week. We cannot do better than that.

You may know all of this already but it never hurts to say it again .
 


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That whole thing was put in place around the time of the unveiling in 2019. I wouldn’t put any faith in those predictions whatsoever.

In order to have any predictability, whatsoever, we have to get beyond the FS production altogether, because it has to be predicated on a consistent pattern that includes a regular progression through the RNs that is only happening somewhat now.

if you have a relatively low RN, and by that I mean that Tesla has in some way acknowledged to you that you are a low reservation holder, then you can hope (like me) that they will continue sending invitations until they get to your RN. They are sending invitations to at least 10,000 RNs per week (we do not know if they are sending to each and every RN in that group). Last week they hit more like 30,000. That translates to the last number in RN11296, RN11297, RN11398. If they continue, and continue at the slowest rate of 10,000 per week, they will get into my range (RN11302) in about 4 weeks. If they went at this last week’s rate they might get to my range next week. We cannot do better than that.

You may know all of this already but it never hurts to say it again .
I didn't know any of this and I greatly appreciate you sharing this information with me. I wish Tesla would just give us an update on how things are going, and the timeline for orders/order numbers assuming things go somewhat as planned. I am not a low RN number. But I did reserve in Jan '21. The reservation tracker is predicting Feb of '26 for me. I figured 3 years when I reserved it. 5 years? At least they should have most of the early production woes solved by then. Just knowing they are contacting 30,000 a week says quite a bit. At that rate I would expect to hear from them in about 6 or 7 months. Do Tesla employees read these posts? I would suggest to them it is in their best interest to give people time to prepare financially! Thanks again!
 

Jhodgesatmb

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I didn't know any of this and I greatly appreciate you sharing this information with me. I wish Tesla would just give us an update on how things are going, and the timeline for orders/order numbers assuming things go somewhat as planned. I am not a low RN number. But I did reserve in Jan '21. The reservation tracker is predicting Feb of '26 for me. I figured 3 years when I reserved it. 5 years? At least they should have most of the early production woes solved by then. Just knowing they are contacting 30,000 a week says quite a bit. At that rate I would expect to hear from them in about 6 or 7 months. Do Tesla employees read these posts? I would suggest to them it is in their best interest to give people time to prepare financially! Thanks again!
They went through (or, at least, to) 3 numbers this last week, but the previous week was 2 and the previous two weeks was only 1. They are still sending out invitations and that is the good news, but just watch the Orders list for just the numbers that order in the new week (typically Tuesdays these days). Most of the acceptances happen between Tuesday and Friday. ignore order RNs from previous weeks.
 

TyPope

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Just waiting for them to get to RN 113344XXX
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