Reservation Tracker Analysis

[KHappe]

And I dont think really affects someone's place in line. The place in line is only relative to other CyberTruck reservations.

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[Jhodgesatmb]

I really know only 2 facts.

1. The data in the Tracker spreadsheet.
2. The quarterly deliveries reported by Tesla.

If there is more ready available data, I would take it into consideration.

I had to massage the data in the spreadsheet somewhat. The Quarter boundaries were not crisp.
Reservation numbers and dates in the spreadsheet were not in sync. The date order did not match the reservation number order.
I had to assume the Reservation numbers were accurate. I then massaged the dates to make be in the same order as the Reservation order. There weren't a lot of changes. And it only affected the Reservations at the end and beginning of a quarter.

I don't doubt that it was a headache and a lot of manual 'massaging'. I understand that you only have limited data. It is too bad that we cannot guestimate the ratio of orders:vehicle orders. It is is, on average, 5:1 (like I guessed just for myself, earlier) then the number of CT reservations would be more like 500K (still substantial). Its just that your overall number of 2.5M (ballpark, I do not recall the actual value you reported) seems too high.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

And I dont think really affects someone's place in line. The place in line is only relative to other CyberTruck reservations.

Of course, but it 'does' affect when we might see an order fulfilled. If the actual number is 500K rather than 2.5M then we can guess that our position is closer to the front than earlier thought. I suspect that the people that ordered the first day or so are all clumped together (but they might also be the larger segment of cancellations). People like me that ordered on day 3 or 4 might have other orders interspersed between us (but lower percentage of cancellations), and people out past the first month probably have a 'lot' of other orders interspersed. One reason why no one has tried to do a more accurate analysis is that there are so many factors and so little data.

 

[KHappe]

Of course, but it 'does' affect when we might see an order fulfilled. If the actual number is 500K rather than 2.5M then we can guess that our position is closer to the front than earlier thought. I suspect that the people that ordered the first day or so are all clumped together (but they might also be the larger segment of cancellations). People like me that ordered on day 3 or 4 might have other orders interspersed between us (but lower percentage of cancellations), and people out past the first month probably have a 'lot' of other orders interspersed. One reason why no one has tried to do a more accurate analysis is that there are so many factors and so little data.

I don't even begin to try to determine when you may get your CT?
Way to many unknowns.

 

[KHappe]

I don't doubt that it was a headache and a lot of manual 'massaging'. I understand that you only have limited data. It is too bad that we cannot guestimate the ratio of orders:vehicle orders. It is is, on average, 5:1 (like I guessed just for myself, earlier) then the number of CT reservations would be more like 500K (still substantial). Its just that your overall number of 2.5M (ballpark, I do not recall the actual value you reported) seems too high.

I gave up on manual massaging of data. I took a look at the issues and put together some code to normalize the quarter boundaries.

 

[Greshnab]

I don't believe everything you order has a res number; so far i have ordered a CT, a Model Y, a Mobility pack for the Y and a wall charger.. ONLY the model Y and the CT got a res number.. the rest got order numbers which are nothing like a res number..

Order #CDJWJFTLEV

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I don't believe everything you order has a res number; so far i have ordered a CT, a Model Y, a Mobility pack for the Y and a wall charger.. ONLY the model Y and the CT got a res number.. the rest got order numbers which are nothing like a res number..

Order #CDJWJFTLEV

I just went through my order history. You seem to be correct. All of my orders have order numbers, including the vehicles, but the vehicle order numbers all begin with "RN". My other orders have fewer characters, but they changed from all numeric to alphanumeric sometime between 2020 and 2022.

 

[Crissa]

You only get a reservation number if they don't assign you a ship date right away.

-Crissa

 

[Greshnab]

You only get a reservation number if they don't assign you a ship date right away.

-Crissa

could be; but right away would need to be defined as the two chargers i ordered shipped within a week but not the same day as each other nor the day i ordered them.

 

[Zinc]

So that puts Q1 21 at around 5 years from start. Uyy, much longer than originally thought.

 

[Crissa]

So that puts Q1 21 at around 5 years from start. Uyy, much longer than originally thought.

? 21?

Start of what?

-Crissa

 

[Zinc]

? 21?

Start of what?

-Crissa

Production.

 

[Crissa]

Production.

Production should start Q3 this year, 2023. The product was announced Q4 2019. That's a couple months short of four years.

Nowhere near five years.

And where did the 21 come from?

-Crissa

 

[Zinc]

Production should start Q3 this year, 2023. The product was announced Q4 2019. That's a couple months short of four years.

Nowhere near five years.

And where did the 21 come from?

-Crissa

My order was Feb of 21. So with the chart that guy posted at 375k per year and the rest of the info, it looks as though it will be 4 to 5 years for my delivery. Was shocked is all as I was expecting a 2024 delivery. Am I wrong, how so enlighten me?

 

[Crissa]

My order was Feb of 21. So with the chart that guy posted at 375k per year and the rest of the info, it looks as though it will be 4 to 5 years for my delivery. Was shocked is all as I was expecting a 2024 delivery. Am I wrong, how so enlighten me?

The first week of orders was over 400K in number. It will take a year to a run rate of 225K trucks per year, I wouldn't expect them to make it through the first weeks' worth of orders in the first year.

There might be ways to sneak up in the queue; there's always those who release their orders or refuse upon delivery or had mismatched configurations and those trucks will need buyers.

-Crissa

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