Tesla Production, Deliveries Graphed Through Q4 2021: Huge Surge

[FutureBoy]

Tesla Production, Deliveries Graphed Through Q4 2021: Huge Surge
The company produced and sold over 300,000 EVs in Q4 and over 930,000 in 2021.

Jan 02, 2022 at 2:35pm ET
By: Mark Kane

Tesla's production and sales results in the fourth quarter of 2021 reached another all-time high level of over 300,000 units.

The result for the year 2021 exceeds 930,000, which is a huge increase over 2020 and a strong foundation for the 7-digit result in 2022.
The year 2021 especially shows how amazingly fast Tesla's EV sales increase:

Let's get into details.

Results
Tesla increased its overall electric car production in Q4 by about 70% year-over-year to 305,840, which is the best result ever. The growth is related to the high production of the Model 3/Model Y (up 79% to 292,731), as the refreshed Model S/Model X duo is in the ramp-up phase (down 19% to 13,109).

The preliminary sales result (customer deliveries) is similar. The company sold a total of 308,600 electric cars (up 71% year-over-year). Mostly thanks to the Model 3/Model Y duo, which expanded by 84% to 296,850. The refreshed Model S/Model X duo is finally in at five digits per quarter (11,750), but it's still lower than a year ago (down 38%).

Q4 2021

• Total production: 305,840 (up 70% year-over-year)
  • Model 3/Y production: 292,731 (up 79% year-over-year)
  • Model S/X production: 13,109 (down 19% year-over-year)
• Total deliveries: 308,600 (up 71% year-over-year)
  • Model 3/Y deliveries: 296,850 (up 84% year-over-year)
  • Model S/X deliveries: 11,750 (down 38% year-over-year)

"In the fourth quarter, we achieved production of more than 305,000 vehicles and deliveries of over 308,000 vehicles. In 2021, we delivered over 936,000 vehicles."

Final sales numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more.

In the case of full-year results, Tesla is above 930,000 - both production and sales-wise.

The company increased the overall EV production by 82.5% to 930,422, mostly thanks to the Model 3/Model Y, for which production nearly doubled (906,032 - up by 99%). The refreshed Model S/Model X production was limited and still is in the ramp-up phase.

In terms of sales, Tesla delivered 936,172 all-electric cars (up 87.4%), which is far more than any other brand. The number mostly consists of the Model 3/Model Y (911,208), which also more than doubled (up by 106%), while the Model S/Model X are down 56% at 24,964.

2021

• Total production: 930,422 (up 82.5% year-over-year)
  • Model 3/Y production: 906,032 (up 99% year-over-year)
  • Model S/X production: 24,390 (down 56% year-over-year)
• Total deliveries: 936,172 (up 87.4% year-over-year)
  • Model 3/Y deliveries: 911,208 (up 106% year-over-year)
  • Model S/X deliveries: 24,964 (down 56% year-over-year)

Charts
Total deliveries

• Q4: 308,600 (up 71% year-over-year)
  2021: 936,172 (up 87.4% year-over-year)

Deliveries by model

• Model 3/Y deliveries
  Q4: 296,850 (up 84% year-over-year)
  2021: 911,208 (up 106% year-over-year)
• Model S/X deliveries
  Q4: 11,750 (down 38% year-over-year)
  2021: 24,964 (down 56% year-over-year)

Total production

• Q4: 305,840 (up 70% year-over-year)
  2021: 930,422 (up 82.5% year-over-year)

Production by model

• Model 3/Y production
  Q4: 292,731 (up 79% year-over-year)
  2021: 906,032 (up 99% year-over-year)
• Model S/X production
  Q4: 13,109 (down 19% year-over-year)
  2021: 24,390 (down 56% year-over-year)

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[FutureBoy]

Liking these numbers!

 

[FutureBoy]

Tesla (TSLA) announces record production and deliveries of over 305k Q4 vehicles, 936K for 2021
Fred Lambert
- Jan. 2nd 2022 9:43 am PT

Tesla (TSLA) announced that it achieved both record production and deliveries during the last quarter of 2021.

The automaker produced “more than 305,000 electric vehicles and delivered of over 308,000 electric vehicles during Q4 2021.

Sunday morning, the automaker decided to release its production and delivery numbers for the fourth quarter of the year:

“AUSTIN, Texas, January 2, 2022 – In the fourth quarter, we achieved production of more than 305,000 vehicles and deliveries of over 308,000 vehicles. In 2021, we delivered over 936,000 vehicles.”

This is a massive quarter-over-quarter increase considering Tesla produced 237,000 vehicles during the third quarter.

Most of the increase came from Model 3 and Model Y production, which Tesla still doesn’t differentiate in its report:

	Production	Deliveries	Subject to operating lease accounting
Model S/X	13,109	11,750	17%
Model 3/Y	292,731	296,850	5%
Total	305,840	308,600	5%

Deliveries came in way above the Wal Street consensus of about 265,000 deliveries in Q4.
But more importantly, these results give Tesla an annualized production rate of over 1.2 million vehicles, which is unprecedented for producing electric vehicles.

Since these are the fourth quarter results, we now have Tesla’s full 2021year delivery and production numbers.

	Production	Deliveries
Model S/X	24,390	24,964
Model 3/Y	906,032	911,208
Total	930,422	936,172

With the significant beat on deliveries in Q4, Tesla is finishing the year with 30,000 more deliveries than most estimates.

Electrek’s Take

Another incredible quarterly performance by Tesla. Congrats to everyone involved.

The most impressive part is undoubtedly achieving a run rate of 1.2 million vehicles and doing it without even having started production at Gigafactory Berlin or Gigafactory Texas.

As I started in my article about Tesla in 2022, this year is again all going to be about growth for Tesla and I believe exiting 2022 with a run rate of 2 million electric vehicles would be a great goal.

But I thought Tesla might exit 2021 with a run rate of 1 million to 1.1 million vehicles.

Now it looks even more achievable, but it’s still going to be a difficult task.

Let’s say there is room to add capacity for 200,000 vehicles at Shanghai and Fremont this year, it means that both Gigafactory Berlin and Texas each need to reach a production capacity of 300,000 vehicles by the end of the year.

To be clear, I am not talking about each producing 300,000 vehicles in 2022, but exiting the year at a production rate of 300,000 vehicles per year.

That requires a fairly smooth production rate at both plants, which is going to be hard to do, but achievable in my opinion especially since Shanghai got up to speed very quickly.

The other story is in the mix of cars. Model S/X accounted for only about 2.5% of Tesla’s sales for the year. Obviously the switch to the new models had some downtime, but the mix is overwhelmingly the smaller cars. That means that Tesla is almost entirely selling the Model 3/Y which are both based on a singular vehicle platform.

 

[Eye of Elon]

You led, Mary, and it matters!

 

[Ogre]

Assuming no additional increase in production capacity, Tesla is on track to produce 1.2m cars in 2022.

If you plug in a typical 1st year production at Giga Texas, add 100,000 to that number. Likewise Berlin.

If Fremont and Shanghai manage to produce 100k more cars between them, Tesla will slide in at 1.5m cars in 2022.

Add in the Cybertruck launch and it'll be 1.501 million vehicles. I gotta plug a little optimism into this model.

Tesla hitting its 50% growth rate goal seems likely this year. In fact it seems like it's almost a shoe-in.

 

[charliemagpie]

Youtube has it wrong !!!

If we use the last qrt : 300,000 , it is about 1,2 million for 2022.

That is Majorly flawed.

Why use October and November production volume.

More realistically, we should multiply December by 52. But that is also wrong.

We should take December production + improvement * 52. = January

This maintains the growth story.

So taking January production * 52, we could be tracking 1.5 million right now..... Not 1.2.

 

[charliemagpie]

Addendum

As I have shown, current production level may be already closer to 1.5 million than 1.2 million.

Shanghai and Fremont could be at 1.8 by the end of the year.

We came up short in this qrt, and have repeated the mistake.

 

[Richard V.]

Addendum

As I have shown, current production level may be already closer to 1.5 million than 1.2 million.

Shanghai and Fremont could be at 1.8 by the end of the year.

We came up short in this qrt, and have repeated the mistake.

I also think that a "natural" limiting factor for Tesla's production has been the battery situation. The machines that makes the machine for making batteries are being deployed and could be in full production in 2022. Those extra supper good batteries (4680s) will allow the Tesla plans to open-up to real potentials. This is only the tip of an "iceborg killer" for the other vehicle makers.
Cheers

 

[Ehninger1212]

Pales in comparison to GM's 26 in Q4.

 

[CyberGus]

Paperwork shows Austin's Tesla Gigafactory nearing an opening date

AUSTIN, Texas — Tesla's Gigafactory in Austin appears to be nearing its opening date.

According to Travis County, areas of the massive factory have received certificates of completion which, according to the Austin Business Journal, is necessary to obtain before a business can open a building...



https://www.kvue.com/article/money/...work/269-b74c872d-2f23-48d9-ba1d-88b799054b57

 

[Ogre]

So taking January production * 52, we could be tracking 1.5 million right now..... Not 1.2.

Also, this quarter Tesla has been fighting supply constraints just like everyone else.

Seems like 1.5m vehicles is baseline for 2022.

2 million is definitely possible.

2.01 million with the Cybertruck.

 

[Richard V.]

Also, this quarter Tesla has been fighting supply constraints just like everyone else.

Seems like 1.5m vehicles is baseline for 2022.

2 million is definitely possible.

2.01 million with the Cybertruck.

Ref: URGENT WARNING To Tesla Stock Investors ?? - YouTube
At 15 mins into this YouTube video his estimates are going way north with production numbers.

I am not saying that "exponential growth" is there at Tesla to stay, but there are some indicators that something is going on in the first few months/years of production along those math lines.

Just consider, here is the power of exponential growth in mathematics: Making Sense of Exponential Growth (mathandmultimedia.com). It is a very powerful idea that is related to the "S Curve" in general in industry.

With Giga Texas and Berlin not even open yet, the numbers could move-up very quickly, not event counting for other possible Tesla Giga factories. However, these numbers look high, but are they impossible?
.
What about Montréal for the North American East coast market, UK and Europe? Shipping is easier from here. The Governments here, I am confident, would most likely be very open to do business with Tesla.

 

[Ogre]

Ref: URGENT WARNING To Tesla Stock Investors ?? - YouTube
At 15 mins into this YouTube video his estimates are going way north with production numbers.

I am not saying that "exponential growth" is there at Tesla to stay, but there are some indicators that something is going on in the first few months/years of production along those math lines.

Just consider, here is the power of exponential growth in mathematics: Making Sense of Exponential Growth (mathandmultimedia.com). It is a very powerful idea that is related to the "S Curve" in general in industry.

With Giga Texas and Berlin not even open yet, the numbers could move-up very quickly, not event counting for other possible Tesla Giga factories. However, these numbers look high, but are they impossible?
.
What about Montréal for the North American East coast market, UK and Europe? Shipping is easier from here. The Governments here, I am confident, would most likely be very open to do business with Tesla.

Musk suggested their goal was an annualized rate of 50% growth per year.

Some years they will likely blow that away. Some years will be slower. 2021 was a blow it away year. Starting to look like 2022 is also.

I do think doubling is a stretch goal though.

 

[John K]

Conservative estimates, 200,000 CTs to be produced this year.

(looking up, expecting CTs to drop from the sky)

 

[Ogre]

Conservative estimates, 200,000 CTs to be produced this year.

(looking up, expecting CTs to drop from the sky)

You set the wrong year on your time machine, its only just the start of 2022….

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