Will "Joe the Contractor" buy the CT?

[HaulingAss]

What I'm getting at is that the early CT doesn't need to compete with anything really. There are so many pre orders that they have a multi year backlog. People who are on the fence will order the CT before the backlog clears out after seeing it in person and on YouTube from the 2 million pre-orders that convert. They probably don't need to compete with anything until 2030 just due to these two groups.

Without even considering the upcoming bans and only looking at the exponential ev adoption curve, by 2030 there could be 50% or more EVs on the road. At that point, and probably a lot sooner, most people will not think ice trucks are competitive.

The thing about the auto industry is that a low price requires high volume. Tesla has positioned the Cybertruck to compete on price in the thick of the 1/2 ton market so it absolutely does need to compete against ICE trucks to achieve the long-term sales number that enable the relatively low price. And it will, very favorably.

Elon's comment years ago, the one where he said if people didn't like the looks of Cybertruck, they will build a more conventional looking truck, was not a sincere comment. He knew it would sell like hotcakes and he only said that to allay fears of Tesla investors who were not as visionary as Elon and were afraid it wouldn't sell. People are going to love it! Still, it will take a couple of years to reach the kind of production numbers Elon has bandied about recently.

Ramping to half a million per year is a much more involved task than most people realize. Look at it this way: 500,000 trucks annually at $60K average cost is $30 billion dollars worth of industrial productivity every year. That takes a lot of doing to make happen, and it can't happen in one year even if the demand for the product is limitless.

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[HaulingAss]

And think about the contractor that takes EM up on his offer and has 4+ superchargers installed in his parking lot. Cheap and quick charging for the crews, no gas needed, costs keep shrinking.

Most contractors will buy trucks that have enough daily range that they only need to be charged at night. It will be a lot more cost effective to put in one Level 2 charging station for every truck in the fleet than it will be to install Superchargers that offer no real benefit. Even a truck with 300+ miles of range can be driven on the highway for 5 hours. That's not cost effective for your employees to be driving that many hours per day. If the jobsite is that remote, they will stay in motels that have Level 2 charging and use Supercharging for the long trip.

 

[PilotPete]

Most contractors will buy trucks that have enough daily range that they only need to be charged at night. It will be a lot more cost effective to put in one Level 2 charging station for every truck in the fleet than it will be to install Superchargers that offer no real benefit. Even a truck with 300+ miles of range can be driven on the highway for 5 hours. That's not cost effective for your employees to be driving that many hours per day. If the jobsite is that remote, they will stay in motels that have Level 2 charging and use Supercharging for the long trip.

Agreed. However, you pay for a. L2 charger, and it makes you no money. Get some public SuperChargers in your front lot, and you can not only quick charge during stops at the office, but make a dollar or two from the public during the day and night. Another (small) revenue stream. So, one costs you money and gives you nothing back, and the other is free, and makes you money.

I didn’t say every contractor would, I said “Think about the contractor that takes EM up…”

My Dad owned a plumbing company. He would install a 4 or 6 pack of SCs at his store location. Brings people to your front door. A building contractor might not need that, but a plumbing shop, pool contractor, landscaper, small hardware store, etc. would. Cut into the Home Depot price advantage. “Hey Marge, I’m gonna go charge up the M3 on the way home and pick up some muffler bearings while I’m there. Be home about 30 mins late.”

 

[Johnelrod12]

They are mostly all terrible and cannot be used in uneven terrains. They do have large commercial sized ones for golf courses but those are way too costly for the average homeowner or lawn care business owner.

 

[FutureBoy]

New truck sales will reach close to 100% EV long before all the trucks on the road are all electric. Those polluting trucks will just keep on polluting. I won't be driving the old gas and diesel beaters, but they will still be out there, in gradually decreasing numbers, for decades.

One would think…. But as often as people trade in their vehicles that might not be the case. There will be an overall availability problem for EVs for a few years yet. But once the availability/demand ratio gets balanced, new ICE is just going to drop off a cliff. There will still be used ICE available for a short while, but the market for them isn’t going to be very large. There will be used EVs around instead.

 

[CyberJustice]

don't know and don't care.

 

[Crissa]

Personally, I tend to use the smallest vehicle for berry picking, we've never had trouble getting a car to them, but it does restrict where we can go. We've discussed getting a Zero FX but we'd use the truck to carry it.

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

TCB and TCO are important numbers. They're better comparisons than sticker.

-Crissa

 

[Cyberman]

It's hard to predict right now.

Will "Joe the Contractor" buy the CT?

Most of the "guys" driving the ubiquitous white F-150's are the ones that need to be won over for the CT to make a deep impact. High fuel prices help... but the truck needs to make their jobs easier not harder. Cost of ownership, maintenance, range, easy access to tools and the bed, overall ease of use, and maybe towing are major concerns. Right now, some of these things are easy wins for the CT, some are still a big question mark, and some are fails.

If the only access to the bed is over the tailgate, that definitely does not make any contractors life easier. It makes things harder with no rear bed storage toolbox or no bed mounted accessory diesel fuel tank (needed to fuel up equipment on the jobsites). Access and storage through the sails would definitely help, I am sure there will be a ladder rack, but there are a lot of contractor questions that remain unanswered.

For Tesla to move contractors out of the tradition ICE pickups and into the CT these need to be addressed.

I'm there.

 

[almostakeeper]

If Tesla came out with a high top roof van built off the CT chassis then you would truly have a "work truck". The only work being done out of a CT will be the pencil pushers and small material fetchers.

 

[almostakeeper]

I dropped my wife off at Bergstrom airport this morning. Since I was in the area I was thinking of swinging by Giga Texas to see why the delay on my CT order. Maybe swing by Elons office and see if he wants to head up to Moellers BBQ for some grub, slip him a couple of $20's to jump the reservation line. Got to the intersection of 973 and river road and spotted the big sign "Tesla employees only". Elons loss, good BBQ and some beer money shot down the tube.

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