More Tesla price cuts === cheaper Cybertruck (6 oct)

[davelloydbrown]

One of the reasons that other EV trucks are more expensive (100 k) is because their long range versions have massive batteries like 200 KWh for the Hummer, Lightning, Silverado and now the Ram. Because the CT is designed so much more efficiently, I wager that the 500 mile version (either 3 motor or quad) will have at most 150 KWh, which should result in a relatively lower price than the other trucks

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[Gurule92]

Affordability is the 2nd point. If demand is high at a certain price point, the affordability point is moot.

The initial price for the Cybertruck will match the demand. And the prices will continue to get lower and lower, as per Tesla's Master Plan.

As you said, affordability matters.

That would be a logical approach. It just isn't really how Tesla has done it. Initial prices have been higher because only high end vehicles were offered. But the high end vehicles were right about the announcement price.

And I really think the built up demand you are referencing is a product of the announced prices. We can't judge demand at other price points

 

[Gurule92]

One of the reasons that other EV trucks are more expensive (100 k) is because their long range versions have massive batteries like 200 KWh for the Hummer, Lightning, Silverado and now the Ram. Because the CT is designed so much more efficiently, I wager that the 500 mile version (either 3 motor or quad) will have at most 150 KWh, which should result in a relatively lower price than the other trucks

Agreed. I worry that the 500 mile truck won't be available for a while because of this.

4680 just isn't where they thought it'd be

 

[Arctic_White]

That would be a logical approach. It just isn't really how Tesla has done it. Initial prices have been higher because only high end vehicles were offered. But the high end vehicles were right about the announcement price.

And I really think the but up demand is a product of the announced prices. We can't judge demand at other price points

But that's exactly what Tesla did with the Model Y: when Model Y's backlog became very large, what did Tesla do? When the backlog was reduced to near zero, what did Tesla do?

Keep in mind that all this time, Telsa continued to lower the price and pass down the cost savings to the consumer. Why? Because that's in their mission!

Good point about judging demand on price points but note that there are many folks who wants a big SUV/pick-up that is also an EV. Right now, there aren't many compelling EVs that are large. Therefore, the Cybertruck is a game-changer (IMO) and has the potential to dethrone the F-150 as the best selling vehicle in North America (1M+ annual sales).

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I kinda think that Tesla was making too much money at almost 30% gross profit. They have like 21 billion in cash and growing. When they cut prices across the board they are still making probably 15-20% gross profit and they basically cannot invest that money in new products fast enough. So they cut prices to make it more affordable, that in turns gains more sales, which generates more cash. Everyone wins tbh.

I still think the dual motor is prob $60k because of the stainless and all the other goodies.

Could be but remember the stainless is actually going to be a cost saving as painting is a huge money pit and eats a lot of time and floor space.

 

[Cyberostachu]

That's what I remember too.
So I would put the new dual price in the range of $59K min and $79K max. One CT config will sit just under the $80K tax credit limit. My WAG is the vehicle @$79K will be the 300 mile Quad config.

So I'm going with a $65K-69K prediction for dual 300 mile config. The addition of the rear screen to the CT prototype suggests to me that Tesla has chosen a higher range. No need to add the rear screen with the dual motor at $59K.

I think the obvious introductory CT will be the quad 300 mile version.

I also think the prices above are unnecessarily low before 2025/6. So I'm not sure that Tesla will leave that money on the table. That decision may depend upon how Musk feels about his twitter investment at the time of the final CT pricing meeting.

I assume we will have prices mid summer. I'm sure Tesla's plan is to have thousands of CT delivered to regular buyers by the end of the year. They did the same low expectation release with the model Y. More can go wrong with the CT release, but Tesla is a peak manufacturing competence today.

I thought the delivery would start end of 2021. I thought the tri would be around 80K at that time. I ordered dual but will change to tri. If the price goes above 80k, it would be hard for me. I wish I could get the tri as my Model 3 LR now gets low mileage due to the terrain where I live.

 

[Arctic_White]

I think Tesla will start the price low to guage demand. They don't have a marketing department or dealerships to pre guage this. They will use their order backlog as the guage. If demand is through the roof, they will gradually raise the prices. To me it makes way more sense than guessing at high demand and having to lower prices. I don't think the number of $100 pre-orders from 3 years ago means that much.

This makes sense.

Price it close to what the initial pricing was and sit back and see how it all plays out.

 

[Gurule92]

But that's exactly what Tesla did with the Model Y: when Model Y's backlog became very large, what did Tesla do? When the backlog was reduced to near zero, what did Tesla do?

Keep in mind that all this time, Telsa continued to lower the price and pass down the cost savings to the consumer. Why? Because that's in their mission!

Good point about judging demand on price points but note that there are many folks who wants a big SUV/pick-up that is also an EV. Right now, there aren't many compelling EVs that are large. Therefore, the Cybertruck is a game-changer (IMO) and has the potential to dethrone the F-150 as the best selling vehicle in North America (1M+ annual sales).

Those observations are accurate but they occurred during entire market fluctuations as well based on external factors. Supply chain difficulties being one. Launch prices haven't shown that trend. But I do think it'll be a little more expensive. Just not very much more. Tri motor sits under 80k in my prediction

 

[davelloydbrown]

Agreed. I worry that the 500 mile truck won't be available for a while because of this.

4680 just isn't where they thought it'd be

apparently the second generation 4680's are going to be more efficient than the first generation ones, so their mass production is probably what will be holding up mass production of the CT until next year.

 

[TBONO]

Wait, so you're thinking no cybertruck will be under 60?? Lol

Unlikely.
Bottom spec Lightening starts at $60K. No options.

So maybe at some point if/when the single motor bottom spec CT comes out, it won’t be more than a couple grand cheaper. More likely to be =>$ but with better specs.

 

[slomo]

Wait, so you're thinking no cybertruck will be under 60?? Lol

Inflation adjusted even the old entry level price is $50K. Adjust for the rise in battery material costs the basis is even higher. A 300 mile CT will likely have a 110+ kWh battery.

 

[slomo]

One of the reasons that other EV trucks are more expensive (100 k) is because their long range versions have massive batteries like 200 KWh for the Hummer, Lightning, Silverado and now the Ram. Because the CT is designed so much more efficiently, I wager that the 500 mile version (either 3 motor or quad) will have at most 150 KWh, which should result in a relatively lower price than the other trucks

CT getting 2.5 miles per kWh would be an impressive feat. The model Y is 3 miles. Rivain/Lightning closer to 2 mi/kWh.

 

[slomo]

I thought the delivery would start end of 2021. I thought the tri would be around 80K at that time. I ordered dual but will change to tri. If the price goes above 80k, it would be hard for me. I wish I could get the tri as my Model 3 LR now gets low mileage due to the terrain where I live.

I thought tri became quad? Or did I miss quad turning back to tri?

I want the big battery and I'm fine with dual.

 

[S.H.Peterson]

I believe you. My order was Aug 2021 which is 2 years behind I guess. Hoping it would get cheaper when my delivery comes. But, I'm nearing 80 y o by then. Hope I could still enjoy the ride.

My man, Im 56... this is gonna probably be my last vehicle. I have already had a heart attack and 2 rounds of pericarditis. The men in my family usually clock out around 65. So yeah, I get what your saying intimately.

 

[Gurule92]

Inflation adjusted even the old entry level price is $50K. Adjust for the rise in battery material costs the basis is even higher. A 300 mile CT will likely have a 110+ kWh battery.

50k is less than 60k. If model Y is able to be about the same as 2019 price when considering materiel and other. Why not CT?

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