150-200 k Cybertrucks in 2024

[davelloydbrown]

Jon at Cleanerwatt has done the math and suggests that tesla should produce enough 4680's to produce 150-200 k Cybertrucks next year (pretty much the first full week of reservations)

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[Crissa]

That's some math. It requires the 4680 ramp continue at the same curve and the trucks go at an astounding rate.

But... This month they're producing cells at a rate enough for <30K trucks annually. If they're having a smooth ramp, that will work out.

It would be mind boggling.

Math:
(30*0.32)+(1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)=
~<150K 500mi range trucks.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

That's some math. It requires the 4680 ramp continue at the same curve and the trucks go at an astounding rate.

But... This month they're producing cells at a rate enough for <30K trucks annually. If they're having a smooth ramp, that will work out.

It would be mind boggling.

Math:
(30*0.32)+(1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)+(1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*30*0.08)=
~<150K 500mi range trucks.

-Crissa

Should use some exponential to cut down on the length of you notation.

But without some labels it is pretty meaningless for us mere mortals.

Besides that though, there won't be any 500mile range trucks if they are battery constrained.

If anything they will do one pack size say around 120kWh for 350miles, and then you can choose dual or trimotor. That way you get the maximum amount of cars on the road for the batteries you have no matter the motor configuration.

 

[Gurule92]

Sounds like performance dual motor with 350-400 miles of range for 67k ftw

0-60 3.7 seconds

 

[intimidator]

Jon at Cleanerwatt has done the math and suggests that tesla should produce enough 4680's to produce 150-200 k Cybertrucks next year (pretty much the first full week of reservations)

Not everything works out in real life production as it does on paper or the spreadsheets.

You never know when the next war, hurricane, pandemic, recession, supplier constraint, strike, or invasion by Martians will happen.

It sounds like when you weigh all the various expert guesses on production/deliveries in 2024 and take a statistical pull it from your frunk estimate that 125,000 Cybertrucks wouldn't be too far off. However IMO the ramp in Jan, Feb and March will be a lot slower than when we get to Oct, Nov and December, so it could be only 30-40,000 in the 1st half of the year, and it really kicks in during the 2nd half.

 

[intimidator]

Sounds like performance dual motor with 350-400 miles of range for 67k ftw

0-60 3.7 seconds

Everything is still rumors right now, but I thought rumors were suggesting a performance Tri-motor, with the dual motor being a "standard" version.

I have no idea what the range will be. I reserved a Tri-motor, 500 mile range variant back in November 2019. If you asked me if 4 years later we would have a 500 mile range Cybertruck, I would have said "of course". That is 4 years in the future. Should be no problem.

Now, I think a 375 mile+ version might be the top range model. Hope I am wrong and it cracks 400+ miles. As an EV owner, roadtrips have been fine, but 400 miles or so would be a lot more convenient. A lot more.

 

[Gurule92]

Everything is still rumors right now, but I thought rumors were suggesting a performance Tri-motor, with the dual motor being a "standard" version.

I have no idea what the range will be. I reserved a Tri-motor, 500 mile range variant back in November 2019. If you asked me if 4 years later we would have a 500 mile range Cybertruck, I would have said "of course". That is 4 years in the future. Should be no problem.

Now, I think a 375 mile+ version might be the top range model. Hope I am wrong and it cracks 400+ miles. As an EV owner, roadtrips have been fine, but 400 miles or so would be a lot more convenient. A lot more.

Yea I think it's possible to do a 500 mile range truck. But I think if Tesla has to pick between selling more, lower range trucks, or fewer 500 trucks because of battery bottleneck. I think they'd opt for less range

 

[ninja6r]

Yea I think it's possible to do a 500 mile range truck. But I think if Tesla has to pick between selling more, lower range trucks, or fewer 500 trucks because of battery bottleneck. I think they'd opt for less range

I wonder if they split that a little bit. Maybe 70/30 for standard range vs long range. This way they can still advertise the 500 mile range, but focus production on standard until cell production is up to the task.

 

[Gurule92]

I wonder if they split that a little bit. Maybe 70/30 for standard range vs long range. This way they can still advertise the 500 mile range, but focus production on standard until cell production is up to the task.

Totally possible

 

[davelloydbrown]

Everything is still rumors right now, but I thought rumors were suggesting a performance Tri-motor, with the dual motor being a "standard" version.

I have no idea what the range will be. I reserved a Tri-motor, 500 mile range variant back in November 2019. If you asked me if 4 years later we would have a 500 mile range Cybertruck, I would have said "of course". That is 4 years in the future. Should be no problem.

Now, I think a 375 mile+ version might be the top range model. Hope I am wrong and it cracks 400+ miles. As an EV owner, roadtrips have been fine, but 400 miles or so would be a lot more convenient. A lot more.

You will need at least 400 miles if you plan on towing any sort of trailer. The silverado EV saw a 50% loss when towing.

 

[intimidator]

I wonder if they split that a little bit. Maybe 70/30 for standard range vs long range. This way they can still advertise the 500 mile range, but focus production on standard until cell production is up to the task.

Several times Elon has "suggested" range doesn't need to be super high for EVs.

You will need at least 400 miles if you plan on towing any sort of trailer. The silverado EV saw a 50% loss when towing.

I tow now with my Lightning. However, I am not going 500 miles. Maybe the longest is 40-50 miles, so an EV truck works for my use case.

Honestly, if someone is towing an Airstream and travelling they should get a F250 or 2500 diesel. At least for the next 5-7 years. Maybe 10 years.

If you have a family of 6, you don't want to buy a Mazda Miata.
If you live in Manhattan, you don't want to buy an extended wheel base pickup.
If you haul horse trailers 250 miles to a competition, an EV pickup is not the right vehicle.

But for a lot of people an EV Cybertruck, or Ford Lightning or other EV might be a great fit for their needs.

 

[intimidator]

I wonder if they split that a little bit. Maybe 70/30 for standard range vs long range. This way they can still advertise the 500 mile range, but focus production on standard until cell production is up to the task.

Several times Elon has "suggested" range doesn't need to be super high for EVs.
People will adjust their expectations to a lower range since they rarely drive more than 30-40 miles every day.

Hmmm. IMO expectations for non-EV owners, is they still think they need 400-500 miles of range or they will become stranded on their way to Target or 7-11.

 

[ninja6r]

Several times Elon has "suggested" range doesn't need to be super high for EVs.
People will adjust their expectations to a lower range since they rarely drive more than 30-40 miles every day.

Hmmm. IMO expectations for non-EV owners, is they still think they need 400-500 miles of range or they will become stranded on their way to Target or 7-11.

Sure, it doesn't matter. But they said 500 miles and I expect 500 miles.

The use cases don't matter, everyone is unique in their needs. You release a 500 mile range truck, you expand your use cases and customers, when you lower range, you shrink them.

 

[davelloydbrown]

Sure, it doesn't matter. But they said 500 miles and I expect 500 miles.

The use cases don't matter, everyone is unique in their needs. You release a 500 mile range truck, you expand your use cases and customers, when you lower range, you shrink them.

Range definitely matters in a truck if you are towing and in all EV's during the winter months, both of which can cut your range in half.

 

[intimidator]

Sure, it doesn't matter. But they said 500 miles and I expect 500 miles.

The use cases don't matter, everyone is unique in their needs. You release a 500 mile range truck, you expand your use cases and customers, when you lower range, you shrink them.

I would LOVE a 500 mile range Cybertruck. Love, love it.
And you can charge me $89,000 or so for it.

I just don't think the battery tech is there....without putting a humongous battery in the vehicle.
(I think they hoped to improve batteries to meet their promises, but it just didn't happen)

IMO the way the Cybertruck moves in the videos I have seen, it doesn't look like it has a 2500# battery in it.

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