Heavy-duty BEVs like the Tesla Semi won’t work—biofuels a better option: Bill Gates

[Ehninger1212]

Lol wow... what a forward thinker.. NOT. This just reminds me of all the NAYSAYERS who said Tesla would never succeed and electric vehicles will never be mainstream. WELL LOOK AT THEM NOW LOSERS! Almost Every major auto manufacturer is struggling to keep up and if they aren’t they are in denial and need to step the F back.

Let’s see.. how many people also said SpaceX and reusable rockets wasn’t gonna work out either. Go ahead.. keep betting against Mr. Musk and his team, because I know he LOVES proving propel wrong. Can’t wait till I get
My Cybertruck and make all the haters hate even more because there puny truck is slow, weak, unrealiable and more expensive to maintain.

soon enough long haul trucking companies will be dying to get there hands on the Tesla Semi. People seem to forget (or just don’t know) how expensive those trucks (current diesel trucks) are to maintain. I would easily take a slightly slower delivery and save a crap load of my check for each load.

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[Frank W]

In the past Elon made a comment that when he met Bill he was underwhelmed. Perhaps this is why the snub happened?

 

[CappyJax]

That's not how cargo capacity works.


Long-haul trucks aren't average trucks. And the way we have set their work day, they need to be able to run for ten hours before charging. They're only allowed to have a ten-hour day. Any time charging takes away from their range directly.

-Crissa

Yes, that is exactly how cargo capacity works. If you are below 73,000 pounds in a diesel semi, and a Tesla semi weighs 7,000 pounds more, then you will still be legal with your normal full load.

And truck drivers have a 14 hour duty period and can drive for as many as 11 hours in those 14 hours. So, they need to take off at least 3 hours in those 14 hours. And since the Tesla Semi will be able to recharged 400 miles in 30 minutes, it won't be a problem at all. So even long haul drivers won't lose a minute of time with the Tesla Semi. In fact, if they are charging at their stops while they load or unload, they would actually save time over a diesel truck.

You make a lot of "That is wrong" statements, but you actually don't explain why you think something is wrong.

 

[Dreamer Ryan]

Not exactly sure of all the different Weights. But I would hazard a guess that the weights of the diesel engine, transmission, clutch, differentials and fuel would be similar to the batteries and electric motors. ???

 

[Crissa]

Not exactly sure of all the different Weights. But I would hazard a guess that the weights of the diesel engine, transmission, clutch, differentials and fuel would be similar to the batteries and electric motors. ???

Electric drive trains are very light, but batteries very much are not.

And despite the argument that you'd 'be below' - that's not how capacity works. Every road and permit only allows so much weight, yes, but more weight also means more energy to go up hills or back up to speed. You can't just add extra weight into a truck without also reducing its carrying capacity, which matters directly to bulk cargo.

And not every route can take a fully laden truck - and many routes already hit that limit. So adding batteries takes directly away from your ability to take another pallet of steel or loader scoop of rocks.

Now does this mean the balance will be forever against BEVs? Not with the advancements of lower-lithium and higher kwh per kg. We're alot closer today than we were yesterday. The limit now is the kwh to price, I think.

-Crissa

 

[MarkBabbitt]

Seems like BG has an investment in BioFuel technology he wants to protect. Kind of lame ... clearly old white guy logic.

 

[CyberMoose]

Yes, that is exactly how cargo capacity works. If you are below 73,000 pounds in a diesel semi, and a Tesla semi weighs 7,000 pounds more, then you will still be legal with your normal full load.

And truck drivers have a 14 hour duty period and can drive for as many as 11 hours in those 14 hours. So, they need to take off at least 3 hours in those 14 hours. And since the Tesla Semi will be able to recharged 400 miles in 30 minutes, it won't be a problem at all. So even long haul drivers won't lose a minute of time with the Tesla Semi. In fact, if they are charging at their stops while they load or unload, they would actually save time over a diesel truck.

You make a lot of "That is wrong" statements, but you actually don't explain why you think something is wrong.

I agree with most of this but we do still need to improve the storage capacity and charging speed, which of course we are heading towards this. One problem that will reduce the benefit of the Tesla semi is that it isn't really built for a dual crew non stop operation. We live in a world where expedited shipping is becoming more and more popular and this has become a huge factor for Trucking operations. There are a lot of long range crews out there now and they will often have sleep schedules which allows them to travel non stop for a couple thousand miles, only stopping for food and bathroom breaks.

The Tesla semi will need to be modified by Tesla or modified after purchase for a sleeping quarter which I heard that it doesn't have, and we will need slightly faster charging rates, fast enough that you could start charging, run in to grab some food and use the washroom, and have the charging complete by the time you come out.

I'm not saying the Tesla semi won't be able to do this, I have complete faith that we are only a few years away from being able to do this. But this is one thing that could affect which operations want to stick with a diesel or switch to a EV semi.

 

[CappyJax]

I agree with most of this but we do still need to improve the storage capacity and charging speed, which of course we are heading towards this. One problem that will reduce the benefit of the Tesla semi is that it isn't really built for a dual crew non stop operation. We live in a world where expedited shipping is becoming more and more popular and this has become a huge factor for Trucking operations. There are a lot of long range crews out there now and they will often have sleep schedules which allows them to travel non stop for a couple thousand miles, only stopping for food and bathroom breaks.

The Tesla semi will need to be modified by Tesla or modified after purchase for a sleeping quarter which I heard that it doesn't have, and we will need slightly faster charging rates, fast enough that you could start charging, run in to grab some food and use the washroom, and have the charging complete by the time you come out.

I'm not saying the Tesla semi won't be able to do this, I have complete faith that we are only a few years away from being able to do this. But this is one thing that could affect which operations want to stick with a diesel or switch to a EV semi.

You are talking about a fraction of a percent of the trucks on the roads.

 

[SEER]

Elon Musk... extremely successful visionary. Sees where the stream will be. Goes there before anyone thinks of it.
Steve Jobs... extremely successful visionary. Saw where we'd be before anyone.
Bill Gates... extremely successful but NOT a visionary.

 

[CappyJax]

Not exactly sure of all the different Weights. But I would hazard a guess that the weights of the diesel engine, transmission, clutch, differentials and fuel would be similar to the batteries and electric motors. ???

The 300 mile range version will likely be about the same weight as a comparable diesel truck. That would cover 80% of all routes.

The 500 mile range version will be about 4,000 pounds heavier than a comparable semi. That would cover the other 20% of routes which are long haul routes on highways where the truck can operate at 80,000 pounds with no limitations. So, unless you are a long haul driver team that regularly drives 22 hours a day and hits weights above 76,000 pounds total in a diesel truck, you will be better off with an Tesla semi.

 

[CyberMoose]

You are talking about a fraction of a percent of the trucks on the roads.

Truck driver is one of the most common jobs in North America and the most common in many states. A small percentage is still a huge amount of trucks. I don't suspect that Tesla will be short on orders and they will likely not be able to keep up with demand because I do agree that they will easily have enough range for most uses.

However we do also need to consider that a lot of the shorter range trucks also still have big tanks, because it's not like they can fill up while they are loading and unloading and they would rather do plenty of trips non stop, even changing crews on shorter routes than to stop and fill up.

What would really push the change from diesel semitrucks to electric would be more infrastructure as well as selling wall chargers for semi trucks. If companies are able to set up wall chargers for their semitrucks in position to charge while they are loading and unloading cargo, that would be the biggest time saver. I suspect this will be an option and for trucks that primarily work within the range that the Semitruck can provide, this would be the best truck for them.

 

[CappyJax]

Truck driver is one of the most common jobs in North America and the most common in many states. A small percentage is still a huge amount of trucks. I don't suspect that Tesla will be short on orders and they will likely not be able to keep up with demand because I do agree that they will easily have enough range for most uses.

However we do also need to consider that a lot of the shorter range trucks also still have big tanks, because it's not like they can fill up while they are loading and unloading and they would rather do plenty of trips non stop, even changing crews on shorter routes than to stop and fill up.

What would really push the change from diesel semitrucks to electric would be more infrastructure as well as selling wall chargers for semi trucks. If companies are able to set up wall chargers for their semitrucks in position to charge while they are loading and unloading cargo, that would be the biggest time saver. I suspect this will be an option and for trucks that primarily work within the range that the Semitruck can provide, this would be the best truck for them.

Yeah, you are right. They should just call it quits because BEV's might only cover 90% of the market. They should wait until it covers 100% or not to it at all.

 

[Crissa]

Yeah, you are right. They should just call it quits because BEV's might only cover 90% of the market. They should wait until it covers 100% or not to it at all.

I didn't see anyone in this thread saying that BEVs should back off. Only pointing out the problems in making a better product and gaining acceptance.

For instance, an EV truck could 'refuel' at the loading dock, there wouldn't be big safety hurdles to having it there.

The hurdles are more 'cash up front' and 'sitting around charging is labor time lost' ie, making BEVs fit how people have adapted to ICE trucks.

-Crissa

 

[CyberMoose]

Yeah, you are right. They should just call it quits because BEV's might only cover 90% of the market. They should wait until it covers 100% or not to it at all.

I don't understand why you resort to extreme sarcasm when I had agreed with you and only gave reason as to why part of the market would most likely be uninterested in switching over to a new technology for their business. Do you feel such a need to be right that if someone shows even a slight disagreeance that you would rather cease all intelligent coversation and revert back to childish ways of arguing.

To go one step further, it's unlikely that most of the trucking industry will suddently switch to electric vehicles, Tesla or not, because there are so many more factors than what people see. Semi trucks are expensive, many owner operators, or large companies are still paying off their fleet, the infrastructure won't be fully in place for quite some time, there is still the large upfront cost that a lot of companies don't always have in their budget to immediately put down. Also larger trucking operations use fuel hedging, meaning they purchase a set amount of fuel for a certain price and they can keep fueling their trucks for that cost until they've used the amount they've purchased. There is also maintenance costs, some of these companies have full maintenance departments working round the clock to keep their trucks operational. Training on electric trucks won't come fast, easy, or cheap and for a lot of companies, it will probably make sense to keep their trucks for the remainder of their lives and they might not fully replace a fleet of diesel trucks for 15-20 years.

Now I think that a lot of companies will make the switch, I think the electric models will be better and reduce costs, I want to see more and more electric vehicles replace gas and diesel to improve air quality and reduce dependancy on non reusable resources, but that doesn't mean there are 0 arguements of doing that immediately and i'm happy to play the devil's advocate to have a health conversation and allow for more points for both sides of the argument to come forward.

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