Inventory Build Up and Future Pricing

[YDR37]

As for the Austin factory, they seem to have been making castings for the Robotaxi, which I haven't seen anyone mention.

When Elon promised to double US vehicle production over the next two years, he was undoutedly factoring in large numbers of Cybercabs, to be produced in Austin.

Whether or not this is realistic remains to be seen. At this time, Tesla has yet to demonstrate a vehicle capable of unsupervised operation on public roads, although robotaxis based on the Model Y are expected to appear in Austin later this month.

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[YDR37]

Wish there was some way to determine why cybertruck sales are lagging. I am certain cost is one factor, and likely auto insurance costs another, but beyond that I don't insight into other factors.

It's not just the Cybertruck -- all electric pickup sales are lagging. The F-150 Lightning sells comparably to the CT. Other EV pickups, like the Chevrolet Silverado EV, GMC Sierra EV, GMC Hummer pickup, and Rivian R1T, sell worse. The bottom line is that the people who buy full-sized pickups overwhelmingly prefer to stick with ICE (although they are willing to consider hybrids).

I personally think that Tesla (and other manufacturers) made a mistake by offering full-sized EV trucks (comparable to the F-150), instead of smaller trucks (comparable to the Tacoma or Maverick). My feeling is that small truck buyers are generally younger, more urban/suburban, and more open to new technology than the F-Series/Silverado/Ram buyers. So I expect the first successful EV pickup will be a smaller one (possibly the Slate).

Every EV pickup manufacturer also makes EV SUVs, and in every case, the SUVs sell better. If you look at the US sales figures for EVs in 1Q 2025, seven of the top 10 models are compact or mid-sized SUVs (Tesla Model Y, Ford Mustang Mach-e, Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue, Hyundai Ioniq5, VW id.4, BMW i4). Compact/midsized electric SUVs sell; full-sized electric pickups don't.

 

[doggod]

here are the ramblings of a madman.

The cybercab is going to take up the excess manpower in Austin.

I also think the "cheap" Tesla will actually be the cybercab. it appears to have drive by wire since they can control it from computer stations at home base. So it should be easy to add steering wheel and pedals.

 

[SCTesla]

here are the ramblings of a madman.

The cybercab is going to take up the excess manpower in Austin.

I also think the "cheap" Tesla will actually be the cybercab. it appears to have drive by wire since they can control it from computer stations at home base. So it should be easy to add steering wheel and pedals.

If you believe Elon, they won't be doing that. He's said so atleast 5 times.

 

[CyberTruckz]

I expect a promo APR of 1.99% again or even better at 0% but I thought we would have seen it already. That being said it was 3/5 when we saw the last promo released. We didn’t see it today 6/1 so far at least so I’d say if we don’t see it in the next week it’s not going to happen this quarter or maybe not again this year as they move to the realization it will reach S/X volumes which also have high interest rates and rarely have promo APRs. Plus, with the discontinuation of the $7,500 credit looming as the year progresses they may feel less pressure as there may be a slight uptick particularly in Q4.

I expect no further price changes, in fact I think it will eventually match S/X pricing as they realize this is a low volume vehicle.

 

[Jon Snow]

It's not just the Cybertruck -- all electric pickup sales are lagging. The F-150 Lightning sells comparably to the CT. Other EV pickups, like the Chevrolet Silverado EV, GMC Sierra EV, GMC Hummer pickup, and Rivian R1T, sell worse. The bottom line is that the people who buy full-sized pickups overwhelmingly prefer to stick with ICE (although they are willing to consider hybrids).

I personally think that Tesla (and other manufacturers) made a mistake by making full-sized trucks (like the F-150), instead of smaller trucks (like the Tacoma or Maverick). My feeling is that small truck buyers are generally younger, more urban/suburban, and more open to new technology than F-Series/Silverado/Ram buyers. So I expect the first successful EV pickup will be a smaller one (possibly the Slate).

Every EV pickup manufacturer also makes EV SUVs, and in every case, the SUVs sell better. If you look at the US sales figures for EVs in 1Q 2025, seven of the top 10 models are compact or mid-sized SUVs (Tesla Model Y, Ford Mustang Mach-e, Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue, Hyundai Ioniq5, VW id.4, BNW i4). Compact/midsized electric SUVs sell; full-sized electric pickups don't.

It is range and price. I need 650 km .. about 400 miles. The Chevy is good, but it weighs 9,500 lbs and handles accordingly.

 

[YDR37]

I expect no further price changes, in fact I think it will eventually match S/X pricing as they realize this is a low volume vehicle.

At the beginning of 2025, the Model X started at $79,990, same as the Cybertruck AWD. Both models qualified for the $7,500 federal tax credit, so the effective price (assuming you qualified for the credit) was $72,490 for both.

Then Tesla unexpectedly hiked the price of the base MX by $5,000, to $84,990. This made the MX ineligible for the tax credit (which is only available for vehicles priced below $80,000). So overnight, the MX vs. CT math changed completely. Instead of costing the same, now the MX cost a whopping $12,500 more ($84,990 vs. $72,490).

Why would Tesla cripple the MX like that? The best guess is that they were deliberately trying to push MX customers to the CT instead.

 

[CyberTruckz]

At the beginning of 2025, the Model X started at $79,990, same as the Cybertruck AWD. Both models qualified for the $7,500 federal tax credit, so the effective price (assuming you qualified for the credit) was $72,490 for both.

Then Tesla unexpectedly hiked the price of the base MX by $5,000, to $84,990. This made the MX ineligible for the tax credit (which is only available for vehicles priced below $80,000). So overnight, the MX vs. CT math changed completely. Instead of costing the same, now the MX cost a whopping $12,500 more ($84,990 vs. $72,490).

Why would Tesla cripple the MX like that? The best guess is that they were deliberately trying to push MX customers to the CT instead.

Agreed, same with the S. This likely made little difference obviously, I mean those are low volume anyways.

 

[dalton108]

At the beginning of 2025, the Model X started at $79,990, same as the Cybertruck AWD. Both models qualified for the $7,500 federal tax credit, so the effective price (assuming you qualified for the credit) was $72,490 for both.

Then Tesla unexpectedly hiked the price of the base MX by $5,000, to $84,990. This made the MX ineligible for the tax credit (which is only available for vehicles priced below $80,000). So overnight, the MX vs. CT math changed completely. Instead of costing the same, now the MX cost a whopping $12,500 more ($84,990 vs. $72,490).

Why would Tesla cripple the MX like that? The best guess is that they were deliberately trying to push MX customers to the CT instead.

A misfire for sure, because these are not the same buyers. The last two model X buyers I know are very close to me: my wife and just last week my father (both traded up from Ys). Neither would ever consider a CT.

It’s just not my wife’s style and my dad just hates the way the cybertruck looks. He literally cannot see it without commenting on how ugly it is.

 

[YDR37]

Agreed, same with the S. This likely made little difference obviously, I mean those are low volume anyways.

The Model S AWD currently starts at $79,990, but for some reason it is not eligible for the tax credit, even though it is under $80,000. So the MS AWD and CT AWD are technically priced the same, but the CT is significantly less expensive for most people due to the tax credit.

If the tax credit goes away, then the MS AWD and CT AWD would cost the same. So maybe Tesla would then increase the MS price, to push customers to the CT.

I have no idea why the MX and MS are different with respect to the credit. The government lists the MX as eligible, but Tesla would have to bring the price below $80,000 again. Meanwhile, the MS is priced below $80,000, but the government does not list it as eligible.

 

[Mini2nut]

I find it interesting that Tesla doesn’t use one battery cell format for all of it‘s vehicles. They use a mixture of 2170’s, 4680’s and 18650’s.

 

[PaulWantsACyberTruck]

It's not just the Cybertruck -- all electric pickup sales are lagging. The F-150 Lightning sells comparably to the CT. Other EV pickups, like the Chevrolet Silverado EV, GMC Sierra EV, GMC Hummer pickup, and Rivian R1T, sell worse. The bottom line is that the people who buy full-sized pickups overwhelmingly prefer to stick with ICE (although they are willing to consider hybrids).

I personally think that Tesla (and other manufacturers) made a mistake by offering full-sized EV trucks (comparable to the F-150), instead of smaller trucks (comparable to the Tacoma or Maverick). My feeling is that small truck buyers are generally younger, more urban/suburban, and more open to new technology than the F-Series/Silverado/Ram buyers. So I expect the first successful EV pickup will be a smaller one (possibly the Slate).

Every EV pickup manufacturer also makes EV SUVs, and in every case, the SUVs sell better. If you look at the US sales figures for EVs in 1Q 2025, seven of the top 10 models are compact or mid-sized SUVs (Tesla Model Y, Ford Mustang Mach-e, Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue, Hyundai Ioniq5, VW id.4, BMW i4). Compact/midsized electric SUVs sell; full-sized electric pickups don't.

I might be the exception because I drive a Tundra now, and had a Ram 1500 and F150s for 19 years. I am very open to considering EVs.

I agree that smaller sized trucks would like fo better though Rivian falls into that size but its price is so ridiculous that very few are seen.

 

[CyberTruckz]

The Model S AWD currently starts at $79,990, but for some reason it is not eligible for the tax credit, even though it is under $80,000. So the MS AWD and CT AWD are technically priced the same, but the CT is significantly less expensive for most people due to the tax credit.

If the tax credit goes away, then the MS AWD and CT AWD would cost the same. So maybe Tesla would then increase the MS price, to push customers to the CT.

I have no idea why the MX and MS are different with respect to the credit. The government lists the MX as eligible, but Tesla would have to bring the price below $80,000 again. Meanwhile, the MS is priced below $80,000, but the government does not list it as eligible.

You’re right, for some reason in my head I thought they were the same price. That’s strange about the S not qualifying.

 

[SCTesla]

The MS is a sedan. The cap is 55k on sedans. It's 80k on SUVs, Vans, and Trucks.

 

[YDR37]

The MS is a sedan. The cap is 55k on sedans. It's 80k on SUVs, Vans, and Trucks.

Suddenly it all makes sense.

And that also explains why the Model 3 is capped at an MSRP of $55,000, while the MY/MX/CT are all capped at MSRPs of $80,000.

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