Elon cleaning out inventory

[sys700]

I think using Tesla's own Cybertruck fleet at SpaceX makes sense.

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[sys700]

Another positive is that it's actually marketing the CT as a futuristic vehicle. There are a lot of people watching photos/videos of rockets taking off at Starbase, and you can't help but notice all the shiny matching Cybertrucks. It looks very futuristic, and a great marketing ploy for Tesla.

 

[dalton108]

I recently completed a 7,600-mile coast-to-coast journey in my CT, which performed reliably throughout the trip. Drawing on my background as a retired law enforcement officer, I recognize the potential of CTs as effective patrol vehicles. Based on my extensive experience owning various vehicles, I find this model to be markedly superior compared to those previously utilized for patrol purposes. While the initial cost may present challenges for some police departments, the long-term advantages could justify the investment, especially if Tesla offers discounted pricing. Should police departments begin adopting these vehicles, an increase in sales is likely. Currently, CTs represent a forward-looking development in the evolution of patrol cars.

1. Jeeps and Hummers are examples of government spec vehicles becoming popular consumer cars.

What’s an example of that happening in reverse? I.e. government taking failed commercial vehicle vehicles and turning them into something that succeeds.

PD’s being gifted a dozen or so CTs or buying one or two for promotion is not going to turn this around. Responsible lawmakers are not going to authorize the purchase of CTs for a fleet of cop cars. Nowhere in this country is that going to happen at scale. This is wishful thinking.

This situation is absolutely no different than my wife and I going out each late Autumn and collecting more limes from our one tree than we could ever possibly eat and then trying to figure out— what the fuck are we gonna do with all these limes?

This is not a plan. This is a plan B.

 

[HaulingAss]

Well, CT seems to be one of the rare business failures for Elon. How did it go from 2 million pre-orders to selling just a few thousand each quarter?

Given how much Elon does, he will have a few failures along the way. But the guy has an incredible track record.

It's way too soon to call the Cybertruck a business failure. A brand new platform like this can take years to turn a net profit and I have a sneaking suspicion that peak Cybertruck sales are at least 5 years away, if not longer.

The Cybertruck is so technologically advanced it will likely not even be outdated in 10 years. And it can't go "out of style" because it was never "in style". LOL!

 

[HaulingAss]

I stopped at the Sarasota Tesla Store yesterday to ask about my order (9/19) and what was taking so long. The response was that CT are on back order.

That's what happens when you try to compete with big orders from Elon!

 

[Griswold]

Gentlemen, at some point you’re gonna have to let reality seep in. This is bad news. Full stop.

Bad news for investors? Current owners? Prospective buyers?

On one hand as an owner I appreciate the uniqueness of a low volume vehicle. Most model refreshes or new car designs look exciting initially, but wear off after you see them regularly and they blend in with the masses. Will they cancel this someday? Maybe. If so what will that mean for parts and service? I'm not too worried about that, maybe I should be. For investors, yes it is bad news but not entirely shocking at this point.

 

[dalton108]

Bad news for investors? Current owners? Prospective buyers?

On one hand as an owner I appreciate the uniqueness of a low volume vehicle. Most model refreshes or new car designs look exciting initially, but wear off after you see them regularly and they blend in with the masses. Will they cancel this someday? Maybe. If so what will that mean for parts and service? I'm not too worried about that, maybe I should be. For investors, yes it is bad news but not entirely shocking at this point.

I’m just responding to the breathless “copium” on display.

I have always been on team low volume, high value. I love my truck! I don’t give a shit that other people don’t like it. But, I am capable of accepting the fact that other people don’t like it, like REALLY don’t like it. Like- HATE IT!!

Elon thought the Cybertruck was going to be “cool.” The market has spoken. It’s decidedly not “cool.” I know what someone is surely going to rush in to say— BUT “kids” and “90-year-olds” are NOT buying CTs! Hell, practically no one is. That’s the problem.

For some that’s political, for some, that’s aesthetic, for some it’s just plain old luddite objections. Ultimately, the reasons don’t matter. Reality does.

All cars get canceled someday. GM canceled the freaking Camaro! The CT is not making a comeback. It really never arrived. It’s a modern Edsel, just like I said it was going to be, a year ago after public sentiment started becoming clear.

It doesn’t make me happy to say it; it just happens to be true.

 

[YDR37]

Will they cancel this someday? Maybe. If so what will that mean for parts and service? I'm not too worried about that, maybe I should be.

All vehicles will get cancelled someday. But I don't think that the Cybertruck is currently in any danger of being discontinued.

It would only make sense to discontinue the CT if either of the following conditions was true:

(1) Tesla was losing money on Cybertruck production; or
(2) Tesla could use Cybertruck production capacity to make other models that would sell better.

I doubt that (1) applies. The margins on an AWD CT are probably low, but positive. The margins on a Cyberbeast are probably a lot higher, although the volume is probably a lot lower. Overall, Tesla is probably making a small profit on CTs. A small profit is better than none.

I doubt that (2) applies either. After years of rapid growth, Tesla opened two new factories (Texas and Berlin) in 2022 -- and then growth stalled. Global deliveries peaked in 2023 and have since declined. So Tesla has plenty of unused capacity for the existing S3XY models. This could change if the S3XY models start selling better again, or if new models like the Cybercab take off, but as of right now Tesla doesn't need the CT's capacity for anything else.

The Model S and Model X both sell in even lower numbers than the CT, and there are no signs that Tesla plans to discontinue those models. The same reasoning applies.

 

[Darmie]

I just wish these companies would have used my referral. I neeeed me some free charging...

 

[HaulingAss]

Bad news for investors? Current owners? Prospective buyers?

Why would sales of Cybertrucks to SpaceX be anything but good news for investors, owners and prospective buyers? It shows the Cybertruck is not going away. More Cybertrucks on the road equals more economies of scale and more parts support as they age.

Your negative perspective seems forced.

Will they cancel this someday? Maybe. If so what will that mean for parts and service? I'm not too worried about that, maybe I should be. For investors, yes it is bad news but not entirely shocking at this point.

Even the longest running vehicle in automotive history, the VW Beetle, was cancelled. All vehicles get cancelled eventually.

But I will point out one of your errors is assuming the Cybertruck is a low volume vehicle. The two year sales of approximately 70K amounts to average annual sales of 35K, which is almost the average volume of all vehicles in the US.

In 2023, there were 388 distinct light-duty vehicle models available for sale in the U.S. market. The total annual light vehicle sales volume in the U.S. was 15,608,386 units. The average annual production volume per model for the U.S. market is approximately 40,228 units.

I'm not saying Cybertruck sales don't have room to grow beyond 35K/year but, even if Cybertruck sales remain flat from the first two years, it will be close to an average sales volume for all vehicles in the US. But the normal trend for new vehicle platforms is for sales volume to gradually grow from initial volumes to a peak several years later, followed by a plateau and then a long slow decline. Considering the Cybertruck's relatively high price point, it's actually a high-volume vehicle. It's quite rare for vehicles starting at $80K to sell in volumes this high.

It seems to me the Cybertruck naysayers are heavily over-represented by those who have little to no first-hand experience, ie. never used one daily for even a week. Are you, by any chance, in this category? It's very difficult to understand what sets the Cybertruck apart from other trucks in the same price category until you actually put it to work.

 

[SCTesla]

Why would sales of Cybertrucks to SpaceX be anything but good news for investors, owners and prospective buyers? It shows the Cybertruck is not going away. More Cybertrucks on the road equals more economies of scale and more parts support as they age.

Your negative perspective seems forced.



Even the longest running vehicle in automotive history, the VW Beetle, was cancelled. All vehicles get cancelled eventually.

But I will point out one of your errors is assuming the Cybertruck is a low volume vehicle. The two year sales of approximately 70K amounts to average annual sales of 35K, which is almost the average volume of all vehicles in the US.

In 2023, there were 388 distinct light-duty vehicle models available for sale in the U.S. market. The total annual light vehicle sales volume in the U.S. was 15,608,386 units. The average annual production volume per model for the U.S. market is approximately 40,228 units.

I'm not saying Cybertruck sales don't have room to grow beyond 35K/year but, even if Cybertruck sales remain flat from the first two years, it will be close to an average sales volume for all vehicles in the US. But the normal trend for new vehicle platforms is for sales volume to gradually grow from initial volumes to a peak several years later, followed by a plateau and then a long slow decline. Considering the Cybertruck's relatively high price point, it's actually a high-volume vehicle. It's quite rare for vehicles starting at $80K to sell in volumes this high.

It seems to me the Cybertruck naysayers are heavily over-represented by those who have little to no first-hand experience, ie. never used one daily for even a week. Are you, by any chance, in this category? It's very difficult to understand what sets the Cybertruck apart from other trucks in the same price category until you actually put it to work.

This is a prime example of why many don't take your posts seriously. You are such a homer, you skew anything and everything you can.

Year 1- 38,965 sold
Year 2- Currently at 16,091 and on pace for under 25,000.

Sales are decreasing. The buy of "potentially thousands of CTs from inventory" is good for TSLA, but not great for the CT overall because it means that Tesla couldn't move those vehicles without him buying them with his other companies.

Trying to twist it as the Cybertruck is averaging 35,000 a year is weird, 35,000 is right below their peak which is currently on a downward trajectory each quarter.

 

[Scorpious]

For all of you thinking these are unsold trucks, they were all manufactured in the last 3 weeks.

 

[SCTesla]

For all of you thinking these are unsold trucks, they were all manufactured in the last 3 weeks.

Do you have a source for that? All of the sources breaking the news said it was inventory.

 

[HaulingAss]

This is a prime example of why many don't take your posts seriously. You are such a homer, you skew anything and everything you can.

Year 1- 38,965 sold
Year 2- Currently at 16,091 and on pace for under 25,000.

Sales are decreasing. The buy of "potentially thousands of CTs from inventory" is good for TSLA, but not great for the CT overall because it means that Tesla couldn't move those vehicles without him buying them with his other companies.

Trying to twist it as the Cybertruck is averaging 35,000 a year is weird, 35,000 is right below their peak which is currently on a downward trajectory each quarter.

In my world, a "homer" is a good thing!

Tesla doesn't disclose sales numbers by individual models so any global sales figures are just an educated guess. The auto industry/media has a consistent anti-Tesla bias so I naturally take the numbers they publish with a grain of salt. This is rational and supported by previous data points about Tesla from the automotive media that later turned out to be exaggerated (against Tesla).

That said, using your numbers for 2024 and estimating 2025 sales at 4,000 below your estimated cap of 25,000, I come up with 60K in the first two years, or 30K per year. It may be a bit more than that, none of us can say for sure. And it does seem sales are picking up from a disasterous Q1 and Q2. If my 35K per year average for the last two years was too high for you, go ahead and attack me personally, because it's not a good look for you.

Tesla has just recently started the long process of getting the Cybertruck certified for sales outside the US, so I expect international sales to boost the numbers a bit over time, while domestic sales certainly have plenty of room to run. It's still early in the lifecycle of a brand new platform. Many won't even purchase a new platform until it has a couple years to prove it's reliability (or even longer to prove it's durability).

It seems to me there are a few very vocal people on this forum who are overly eager to write the Cybertruck off (or maybe they just don't understand the typical lifecycle of new models in the industry). It's capital intensive to bring a new model to market, particularly one as advanced and unique as the Cybertruck, so manufacturers are never quick to give up before they give the new platform time to mature. And Elon is not known for giving up on anything unless he determines there is no possible way to succeed. The Cybertruck is selling very well indeed relative to other vehicles that start at $80K (and it's only been on the market for less than 2 years).

I guess I just don't understand why the eager-beaver Cybertruck naysayers are so vocal and so willing to write off an entirely new platform that is so superior to the competition at the same price point. The fact that it looks so different, so futuristic, is a reason to give it more time, not less. It takes time for people to leave their old biases behind.

 

[HaulingAss]

For all of you thinking these are unsold trucks, they were all manufactured in the last 3 weeks.

Yeah, but Tesla was still selling unsold trucks!

The nerve of them to do that! Every other manufacture sells trucks that were already sold!

/S

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