Just got my invite to design my CT yesterday.

[Paul Marvin]

I did not make my reservation until about three months after the CT event and supposedly hundreds of thousands of people were ahead of me. I assumed that my number would come up next year so I bought a new model Y which I really love. Does anyone know why I would be offered it so soon?

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[Jager]

Two reasons.

First, the most ardent, excited potential buyers of the Cybertruck disproportionately put their orders in early, in the hours, days, and weeks after the reveal in November 2019. That was the group most willing to pay the Foundation Series premium.

Second, the production ramp has reached a point where they are now routinely building a pretty good number of vehicles.

Tesla has to find a buyer pretty quickly for each vehicle they build. And they are far enough back in the queue now that the conversion rate - never high to begin with - is challenged by the number of vehicles rolling off the line.

The Foundation Series cannot be sustained much longer. Their production numbers will soon compel Tesla to offer regular (non-FS) pricing.

 

[CyberTW]

Two reasons.

First, the most ardent, excited potential buyers of the Cybertruck disproportionately put their orders in early, in the hours, days, and weeks after the reveal in November 2019. That was the group most willing to pay the Foundation Series premium.

Second, the production ramp has reached a point where they are now routinely building a pretty good number of vehicles.

Tesla has to find a buyer pretty quickly for each vehicle they build. And they are far enough back in the queue now that the conversion rate - never high to begin with - is challenged by the number of vehicles rolling off the line.

The Foundation Series cannot be sustained much longer. Their production numbers will soon compel Tesla to offer regular (non-FS) pricing.

Do they go through the whole list?

 

[Stuck4ger]

Do they go through the whole list?

My guess is they will build FS models and go through the reservation list until the point of diminishing returns and then they will halt the FS production run. But I doubt they’d start the non-FS deliveries until they had shipped all of the FS vehicles as it doesn’t seem like it would be proper to offer an early adopters vehicle after regular adopters are getting theirs.

 

[Jager]

Do they go through the whole list?

They could. But even that won't make a difference. The conversion rate is now low enough, relative to their production numbers, that even choosing to go through the entire reservation list won't capture enough buyers, for long enough.

Short of deliberately putting a brake on the production ramp, Tesla doesn't have a choice. They have to find more buyers.

 

[CyberTW]

They could. But even that won't make a difference. The conversion rate is now low enough, relative to their production numbers, that even choosing to go through the entire reservation list won't capture enough buyers, for long enough.

Short of deliberately putting a brake on the production ramp, Tesla doesn't have a choice. They have to find more buyers.

Conversion 5%? How many passed, and will wait on non-FS… gotta think at least 200k

I’m RN 1173xx (may 2022). I feel like you are right and they will either quit before me or I may be getting a configure email much before I expected…

 

[Jager]

The conversion rate is nowhere near 5%.

It will be much higher once non-FS pricing is available. There's an enormous difference between a $72.5K vehicle and a $100K vehicle.

 

[CyberTW]

The conversion rate is nowhere near 5%.

It will be much higher once non-FS pricing is available. There's an enormous difference between a $72.5K vehicle and a $100K vehicle.

Totally get it. I don’t qualify for the tax credit and the difference on monthly payments for 100 and 80 is like $300 so I will gladly go FS instead of waiting 2 years.. not everyone will obviously… my only concern is more being early builds and issues

 

[Paul Marvin]

Conversion 5%? How many passed, and will wait on non-FS… gotta think at least 200k

I’m RN 1173xx (may 2022). I feel like you are right and they will either quit before me or I may be getting a configure email much before I expected…

My RN is 1143xx so take that for what it’s worth

 

[CyberTW]

My RN is 1143xx so take that for what it’s worth

Ya I am still a ways off but the point of the die hards already ordering make me think the list will really fly if they choose

 

[Paul Marvin]

BTW, for those of you who don’t know,as I understand it, the 100 K price tag includes FSD, premium connectivity for life and $2500 credit for having the power share wall connector bought and installed. Or you may use the credit in the Tesla store.

 

[Art138]

Two reasons.

First, the most ardent, excited potential buyers of the Cybertruck disproportionately put their orders in early, in the hours, days, and weeks after the reveal in November 2019. That was the group most willing to pay the Foundation Series premium.

Second, the production ramp has reached a point where they are now routinely building a pretty good number of vehicles.

Tesla has to find a buyer pretty quickly for each vehicle they build. And they are far enough back in the queue now that the conversion rate - never high to begin with - is challenged by the number of vehicles rolling off the line.

The Foundation Series cannot be sustained much longer. Their production numbers will soon compel Tesla to offer regular (non-FS) pricing.

Although I agree in principle in your assessment I think your premise is more skewed to AWD. Insofar as Beasts, I ordered in February and timeline for delivery was forecasted Oct/December. It appears that FS Beasts could run into 25 for 114 thru 116 crowd. Hopefully there will be a ramp up of Beast production and we hear something sooner.

 

[Jager]

BTW, for those of you who don’t know,as I understand it, the 100 K price tag includes FSD, premium connectivity for life and $2500 credit for having the power share wall connector bought and installed. Or you may use the credit in the Tesla store.

And that's a good point. The Foundation Series is not at all a bad proposition, save for one thing. For those of us who keep vehicles for a long time.... over a ten year period the Connectivity alone absorbs half the cost of the FS premium. Throw in FSD and the other features and it's not hard to see the wisdom in pulling the trigger.

The singular downside for the FS is that it instantly kills the $7,500 Federal Incentive. And for a lot of buyers of the Cybertruck, that's not a consideration anyway because they don't qualify.

 

[Stuck4ger]

I’m hoping the FS AWD line will taper off quickly in the coming weeks (doing a run of AWD tactical greys) and they will then begin cranking out the FS Beasts for a few months before reconfiguring for non-FS trucks.

 

[tres_comas]

The conversion rate is nowhere near 5%.

It will be much higher once non-FS pricing is available. There's an enormous difference between a $72.5K vehicle and a $100K vehicle.

helluva difference. i am planning on 50k cash and rest finance.
30k vs 60k finance (approx. taxes and what not), starting to look like wait game seems way more attractive.

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