How long do you think it would take to get a CT if you reserved from scratch today?

[HaulingAss]

Get mine Tuesday!!!

Congratulations! You're in for a treat!

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[wanders]

Well there were 2million “reservations” last November. Let’s just assume over 60% bailed. So now only 800k. Assume 300k more bailed after the price was revealed.. now we are at 500k waiting. Let’s say The waiting washes out ANOTHER 100k. Now we are at 400k. 22k-ish are foundation and 380k are waiting for the price drop non-FS. at the run rate expected, that still puts it out to 25/26…
This is very ballpark and rough guess… even if only 150k are waiting for non-FS, that’s at the end of 2025 sometime at best

this also doesn’t include anyone who put down deposits from November till now

Yeah I'm not going to just "assume" 75% of the reservation holders have bailed, that's ridiculous.

 

[Gaximus]

That's insane... No way that's right. Elon said in the Shareholder meeting that their stretch goal is 2,500/week by end of 2024 (that's 10k/month, 120k/year). Currently it's estimated there's more than 1 Million reservations, but possibly up to and beyond 2 Million. The Foundation Series was a few thousand?

For someone who just reserved, assuming Tesla follows some sort of chronologial order, and there aren't a wild amount of cancellations, you're looking at 3-5 years minimum, probably closer to 8+ years.

If you go to the site to reserve one the Tesla site says you’ll get it in 2025 if you reserve today.

 

[wanders]

If you go to the site to reserve one the Tesla site says you’ll get it in 2025 if you reserve today.

Yeah because tesla's never wrong with delivery estimation

 

[CyberTW]

Yeah I'm not going to just "assume" 75% of the reservation holders have bailed, that's ridiculous.

I hear you, but I was being VERY pessimistic to prove a point.. the list is still long and even if it was pessimistic numbers long, that means it is still 2026 for new reservations. See what I was doing? .. hence why I pulled the trigger on the FS. I would have waited 2+years

 

[wanders]

I hear you, but I was being VERY pessimistic to prove a point.. the list is still long and even if it was pessimistic numbers long, that means it is still 2026 for new reservations. See what I was doing? .. hence why I pulled the trigger on the FS. I would have waited 2+years

I see what you're saying. I thought you were taking the angle of the person I was responding to. I agree, even if you remove a vast majority of the reservations, it's still pushing 2026. I'm in the 700k ballpark and I'm not expecting my delivery for 3-5+ years.

 

[CyberTW]

I see what you're saying. I thought you were taking the angle of the person I was responding to. I agree, even if you remove a vast majority of the reservations, it's still pushing 2026. I'm in the 700k ballpark and I'm not expecting my delivery for 3-5+ years.

You never know how it will work out!! Not everything makes sense with Tesla ?, but it is a badass vehicle

 

[wanders]

You never know how it will work out!! Not everything makes sense with Tesla ?, but it is a badass vehicle

It's incredible. I think people really underestimate the benefits from steer by wire, rear steering and FSD. This thing is going to be making acrobatic maneuvers before long.

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