Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023

[jerhenderson]

First deliveries weren't scheduled until end of year with volume production for Q1 2022.

Also, you've skipped the fundamental missing piece. They haven't figured out how to manufacture the batteries which underpin the entire thing. Without batteries and the structural pack to stuff them into, no point in rushing any of the above. You end up with an idle gigapress and factory.

The Model Y line is in the home stretch. The Cybertruck line could be finished well before year end 2022. The batteries are still missing though.

the batteries just aren't where Tesla wants them to be, but yes add that to my list.

I agree that the others will not have the scale of Tesla, which means even more that lost sales to them won't matter much to Tesla. As far as the others not being a good option because they aren't work trucks, that depends on what the buyer is getting it for. The only reasons I want the Cybertruck are because it's a Tesla and because with the SS exterior I won't have to worry about paint or dings. And because I can haul the small stuff that I sometimes need to in the bed instead of towing a small trailer with my Model 3. A lot of buyers won't be using their trucks for work.

I think the Rivian is more like a Jeep niche market.

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[jerhenderson]

This is a a little misunderstanding:

The Taliban were never US allies - the Mujahideen were. The Taliban were kids in refugee camps when the Mujahideen were fighting for freedom. Once the US left, the Taliban formed to 'take back' their country from the factions that had formed in the aftermath. The Taliban revered the Mujahideen (and hated some: because some Mujahideen weren't religiously pure enough).

The reason they asked for a World Court case against bin Laden was because he had Mujahideen cred for shooting down a helicopter (or so goes the story). That meant they needed pretty serious evidence to be able to arrest him, since he was a hero guest in their country. It would have been like asking to arrest one of our Founding Fathers.

-Crissa

the group that became the taliban were Mujahideen soldiers....and they were the successful group in the Afghan Civil War that began in the power void after the soviets left, and the US no longer cared.

 

[Crissa]

the group that became the taliban were Mujahideen soldiers....and they were the successful group in the Afghan Civil War that began in the power void after the soviets left, and the US no longer cared.

I'm sorry, this is incorrect. The Mujahideen who established a government in 1992 after their war were ousted by the Taliban in 1996 after their war. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan_conflict_(1978–present)

It's an easy mistake to make, as the war was very long, but mostly fought by kids. So there was alot of changeover in who and what was being fought over.

-Crissa

 

[Lord England]

Lose sales to whom? Ford can barely make any, the Rivian isn't a work truck and the other legacy builders have only CGI versions.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

Sigh.

Wouldn’t it be nice if people stuck to Tesla/Cybertruck/EV topics on this site and leave all the BS elsewhere? Frankly, I come here to get away from such nonsense. I can dream, though.

 

[Crissa]

Sorry history is boring, medicaljump. ?

-Crissa

 

[jerhenderson]

I'm sorry, this is incorrect. The Mujahideen who established a government in 1992 after their war were ousted by the Taliban in 1996 after their war. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan_conflict_(1978–present)

It's an easy mistake to make, as the war was very long, but mostly fought by kids. So there was alot of changeover in who and what was being fought over.

-Crissa

all fighters were once US allies vs the Soviets - following their evacuation they split into their factions, some of which went to the Taliban.... some to Isis....some to Al-Qaeda, etc. Long story short, if the US had been involved in nation building AFTER, the crap we've been through including 9/11 wouldn't have happened.

 

[Ogre]

all fighters were once US allies vs the Soviets - following their evacuation they split into their factions, some of which went to the Taliban.... some to Isis....some to Al-Qaeda, etc. Long story short, if the US had been involved in nation building AFTER, the crap we've been through including 9/11 wouldn't have happened.

Who knows. This is the historical fiction version of masturbating, pointless and solely for your own pleasure.

If we had a decent track record at nation building maybe that would have been better. But the US absolutely SUCKS at nation building. Generally we end up giving a bunch of weapons to people who turn into petty dictators who hate us.

 

[Solarwizzo]

I just fixed up my old 98Dodge Truck to make it last until CT gets delivered. Manual transmission re-build, new heater core and all. One more year? Oh well, my RAM1500 is a rugged vehicle, ha! Will do it, I am sure. I just hope, Tesla sticks with the 2019 pre-order price tags during times of inflation. I am sure, more time will make the CT a better product.

 

[LDRHAWKE]

Q

Who knows. This is the historical fiction version of masturbating, pointless and solely for your own pleasure.

If we had a decent track record at nation building maybe that would have been better. But the US absolutely SUCKS at nation building. Generally we end up giving a bunch of weapons to people who turn into petty dictators who hate us.

But it sure is profitable for weapons builders! Think about the new war machines they will now have to make to protect the World from all the war machines they just gave away to the bad guys. The last thing they want is the market flooded with used war machines. They want to sell new ones. The black market just for Blackhawk parts is very profitable.

 

[17.088007490635]

My signature line says the most relevant tid-bits.

I own a stereotypical red utility trailer with a bed that is 6' wide by 8' long. Our ~2014ish Chevy Volt _CAN_NOT_ haul any sort of trailer. I refuse to add a hitch/receiver to our 2004ish RAV4. That means... Right now, the only thing I have that can haul the trailer is my 1973 "Garage-Queen" C10 Suburban (454 engine). That's a bit-of-overkill-right-there.

Soooo... If I get a model Y sooner than expected, it would be with the needed and already factory ordered hitch/receiver, so I could actually USE the trailer, and sell the Suburban.

Grumble, grumble, grumble.
I wanted the CT before the MY.
Waaaaaaah!!!!
Can I have some cheese to go with my whine?

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Elon has been quoted as saying (probably in interview with Sandy Munro) that the best time to buy a Tesla is when they are first produced, because those vehicles are gone over with a fine tool comb by many many people ==OR== after the ramp up is done, and they are then able to do full speed on the production line, ==BUT== that implies one should NOT buy one at the ramping-up phase, because that's when mistakes happen (to be corrected in the following vehicles).

My question:​

Where's a "good" spot to go on the web (IF such a place exists) to hear the most current speculation as to when Giga-Austin's Model Y production line will be up and running at full speed, and NOT in "ramp-up" mode? ​

I'm sure you can guess why. I want to buy a Giga-Texas Model Y that does NOT have a plethora of glitches.


17.088

 

[Ogre]

The Model Y coming out of Texas is unlikely to ship with the 4680 cells right now regardless. So you might as well just buy the current Model Y.

There is no public timeline for when the 4680 cells will be available. What you are going to get out of Tera Texas early next year is almost certain to have 2170 cells and the non-structural batteries. If you are waiting for the much better Tera Texas Model Ys, you are likely looking at some time in Q2 or even Q3 next year. If you are waiting for the 100,000th+ Model Y with 4680 cells, maybe not until 2023.

If 4680 production is limited, they might just use 4680 production for getting the Cybertruck out the door which would push Model Ys with the 4680 cells further back.

Or... if they've quietly solved the issues around the 4680 or you are happy with a 2170 Model Y with the new front end, end of Q1 next year.

Everything around the 4680 is pure speculation right now. So YMMV.

 

[17.088007490635]

Everything around the 4680 is pure speculation right now. So YMMV.

I'm semi-agnostic regarding batteries. The proven older 28xx are likely good enough for me.

What I care more about, re Fremont versus Austin, is:
* Paint quality and
* Dual front & back mega-castings.
* Overall fit and finish (re a new production line).


17.088


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[Crissa]

The Model Y coming out of Texas is unlikely to ship with the 4680 cells right now regardless. So you might as well just buy the current Model Y.

Cell type is pretty meaningless to the end result. Like, why would I care if the cells are pouch or cylindrical, 2170 or 4680? Yeah, next year's batteries will be better. But that's true regardless.

The rumors are the pilot line at Kato is at the same % good cells as GigaNevada. So they're down to the last bits. They're already installing equipment in Austin.

So yeah, it's all in the air. But they're moving on it, ready to pounce when they dial it in.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

the problem here is that Rivian is almost ready and GM and Ford will be before Tesla. people in need of a truck and still puzzled about CT's appearance will go for another brand at this point. this is no good news for us Tesla shareholders.

Haha! No. That's not a problem. Rivian and Ford aren't going to make enough electric trucks by 2023 to matter. Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they make, as soon as they make it, for as far as the eye can see.

So I don't see the "problem" for Tesla shareholders. Because in the interim, Tesla is focusing on increasing production of Model Y in two new factories.

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