CT Use of rare earth magnets

[Tinker71]

Well that it just spiteful. I suspect they will dribble in with the shipments of S3XY and your plan for Australian egalitarianism will be foiled.

How does this work for all the RHD countries out there? I would think you guys are always 6 months behind getting cool foreign vehicles. Any stats there?

Do manufactures do a run of RHD models at the end of the LHD runs before they make another switch? While Tesla is probably better than most for ease of switch up there would still be unique parts for the interior. Then there is more delay if you get in an accident. (parts) What a pain in the arse.

Looking at this map, a RHD factory in India or South Africa would make a lot of sense. There are more of you than I thought.

And by the way, thanks for all those extra holes in the chassis we don't know why they are there for.

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[flowerlandfilms]

At least in Australia I don't think there is an easy comparison because most other auto companies contract the LHD to RHD switch out to a "Certified" third party and you have to get paperwork and certificates and all that shit. It's a big reason why we have become a dumping ground for crappy high pollution models, they can't be bothered releasing good ones here.
But since Tesla does it themselves that saves the hassle.
Even so with Teslas we are way more than 6 months behind.
(We still do not have the Model Y here.)
We do have a crazy billionaire called Mike Cannon-Brookes, he helped get the South Australian big battery thing going.
Rumour has it he has been leaning on Musk to put an Australian Giga-Factory in Geelong.
At first glance the cost of doing business in Australia is high, but he thinks the abundance of battery materials available to mine here more than makes up for it.
Would also reboot our auto-manufacturing industry (gone since Holden called it quits.), and make him a local hero in Victoria. They know cars in Geelong, and would appreciate the jobs.

 

[Tinker71]

At least in Australia I don't think there is an easy comparison because most other auto companies contract the LHD to RHD switch out to a "Certified" third party and you have to get paperwork and certificates and all that shit. It's a big reason why we have become a dumping ground for crappy high pollution models, they can't be bothered releasing good ones here.
But since Tesla does it themselves that saves the hassle.
Even so with Teslas we are way more than 6 months behind.
(We still do not have the Model Y here.)
We do have a crazy billionaire called Mike Cannon-Brookes, he helped get the South Australian big battery thing going.
Rumour has it he has been leaning on Musk to put an Australian Giga-Factory in Geelong.
At first glance the cost of doing business in Australia is high, but he thinks the abundance of battery materials available to mine here more than makes up for it.
Would also reboot our auto-manufacturing industry (gone since Holden called it quits.), and make him a local hero in Victoria. They know cars in Geelong, and would appreciate the jobs.

Thanks for the info. Looking again at the map and then overlaying with population, Australia would probably be the least likely. While you guys are affluent, there just are not that many of you.

I wonder if they could do some sort of mega conversion factory where they streamline the conversion process. Ship in the rolling chassis without most of the interior then just build and install the unique RHD seats/dash etc. Maybe this would include the battery pack since as you say most of the raw materials come from Australia anyway. I just can't see a gigafactory in Australia.

Maybe all the RHD parts are made in India or Africa the chassis come from China, the battery pack from Australia, and Africa, India and Australia each get a conversion center.

IDK. Handling a unpowered chassis would be a pain in the but. You guys are in a tuff spot. We Americans wine about our 12-18 month delay. Many more unknowns for you.

 

[Crissa]

Right now they're making the backwards-driver Model 3 and Y in China, and the S and X in California. Only this month did Y get to the UK, for instance.

What you really need to look at is the export/import tariffs from each. Which is what makes a factory in India so likely. Unfortunately, there's no proof of a long-range EV market there. If Australia could get an in on India's market, then maybe with their reduced battery costs... There is definitely a long-range vehicle market in Australia and few countries are set against their exports.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Right now they're making the backwards-driver Model 3 and Y in China, and the S and X in California. Only this month did Y get to the UK, for instance.

What you really need to look at is the export/import tariffs from each. Which is what makes a factory in India so likely. Unfortunately, there's no proof of a long-range EV market there. If Australia could get an in on India's market, then maybe with their reduced battery costs... There is definitely a long-range vehicle market in Australia and few countries are set against their exports.

-Crissa

Musk laid some hints that they might be moving away from giant gigafactories and more towards smaller factories closer to where they end product would be sold. A smaller Gigafactory in India might make sense, producing just the Model 3 and the on-again-off-again budget Tesla.

 

[Crissa]

The market that an export hub in India could reach would be as large as the one in China. So it would definitely be Gigafactory sized... Assuming there was a local market for long-range EVs to support it. India has favorable export relations to almost all the wrong-side driver countries.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

Musk laid some hints that they might be moving away from giant gigafactories and more towards smaller factories closer to where they end product would be sold. A smaller Gigafactory in India might make sense, producing just the Model 3 and the on-again-off-again budget Tesla.

Where did you see that? It's about time they came to their senses and distributed manufacturing. Centralised manufacturing increases single point of failure sensitivity. Think fire, natural disaster, transportation, supply chain, public unrest, approvals, pandemics etc.

I'm all for a giga, or smaller dedicated manufacturing in Oz but I'd suggest separating out battery manufacturing and place them close to bulk extraction and processing here in WA where half of the lithium and nickel comes from. Do the same for SS production and fabrication. And just build CT here, forget the other models, we just need that one, this is ute country.

BTW there is only minimal different parts on most vehicles that are designed from scratch for RHD/LHD, so there is not point in having dedicated manufacturing lines to add those specific components. Splitting assembly lines is not trivial.

 

[Ogre]

Where did you see that? It's about time they came to their senses and distributed manufacturing. Centralised manufacturing increases single point of failure sensitivity. Think fire, natural disaster, transportation, supply chain, public unrest, approvals, pandemics etc.

I'm all for a giga, or smaller dedicated manufacturing in Oz but I'd suggest separating out battery manufacturing and place them close to bulk extraction and processing here in WA where half of the lithium and nickel comes from. Do the same for SS production and fabrication. And just build CT here, forget the other models, we just need that one, this is ute country.

BTW there is only minimal different parts on most vehicles that are designed from scratch for RHD/LHD, so there is not point in having dedicated manufacturing lines to add those specific components. Splitting assembly lines is not trivial.

I’d have to chase it down, I believe it was sort of reading between the lines at the earnings call and the discussion around the next location, but I’d have to dig around to refresh myself. I just recall the suggestion that perhaps the next factories wouldn’t be Texas sized.

 

[Tinker71]

Where did you see that? It's about time they came to their senses and distributed manufacturing. Centralised manufacturing increases single point of failure sensitivity. Think fire, natural disaster, transportation, supply chain, public unrest, approvals, pandemics etc.

I'm all for a giga, or smaller dedicated manufacturing in Oz but I'd suggest separating out battery manufacturing and place them close to bulk extraction and processing here in WA where half of the lithium and nickel comes from. Do the same for SS production and fabrication. And just build CT here, forget the other models, we just need that one, this is ute country.

BTW there is only minimal different parts on most vehicles that are designed from scratch for RHD/LHD, so there is not point in having dedicated manufacturing lines to add those specific components. Splitting assembly lines is not trivial.

Decentralized manufacturing has even more risk. Sometimes all it takes is one part not being available to complete a vehicle. Spreading components out doesn't mitigate much when you have an entire vehicle to build. Fremont with its ICE roots was the most productive factory in NA last year thanks to vertical integration. (local supplying Tesla owned factories anyway)

Austin/Berlin will blow the doors off Fremont and any existing factory when they hit their stride.

I am pretty sure Tesla's selection criteria looks at all the risks, earthquakes, politics, logistics,

 

[CyberGus]

I guess when you watched the teardown you missed the duel rear motors.... but yes incremental... like sucking on a straw vs a garden hose is incrementally more

I hope they don't duel lol

 

[CyberGus]

I’d have to chase it down, I believe it was sort of reading between the lines at the earnings call and the discussion around the next location, but I’d have to dig around to refresh myself. I just recall the suggestion that perhaps the next factories wouldn’t be Texas sized.

everything's bigger in Texas

 

[JBee]

Decentralized manufacturing has even more risk. Sometimes all it takes is one part not being available to complete a vehicle. Spreading components out doesn't mitigate much when you have an entire vehicle to build. Fremont with its ICE roots was the most productive factory in NA last year thanks to vertical integration. (local supplying Tesla owned factories anyway)

Austin/Berlin will blow the doors off Fremont and any existing factory when they hit their stride.

I am pretty sure Tesla's selection criteria looks at all the risks, earthquakes, politics, logistics,

Vertical integration and distributed manufacturing are not mutually exclusive. Distributed manufacturing is also not horizontal integration. In fact once you hit critical mass with vertical integration the more likely it becomes that you need to use distributed manufacturing to increase output.

What I propose is to structure the distribution of manufacturing in such a way that it leverages the capacity of multiple sources at the module level (not component level) so that all of these can be cost and production optimised. I mean they already have a dedicated steel line for the CT, have multiple battery lines, motors etc.

Extending that further makes sense, and doesn't mean it's not still vertically integrated in the business operations. (Aka reducing external supplier count)

 

[Ogre]

I'm all for a giga, or smaller dedicated manufacturing in Oz but I'd suggest separating out battery manufacturing and place them close to bulk extraction and processing here in WA where half of the lithium and nickel comes from. Do the same for SS production and fabrication. And just build CT here, forget the other models, we just need that one, this is ute country.

Tesla is exploring mining Lithium in Nevada and it’s been suggested that they might make their cathode plant right at the lithium mine location so they only have to transport the finished product to the battery factory which should save a lot on shipping. They could do something similar in Australia assuming they could find similar lithium deposits.

 

[JBee]

Tesla is exploring mining Lithium in Nevada and it’s been suggested that they might make their cathode plant right at the lithium mine location so they only have to transport the finished product to the battery factory which should save a lot on shipping. They could do something similar in Australia assuming they could find similar lithium deposits.

Exactly, that is what I mean and also makes complete sense to me.

Australia does 60% of the worlds lithium and most of that comes from around here in WA (our state is nearly 4x the size of Texas with 2.5m people, of which Perth has 2.1m) . We're also the 4th largest nickel exporter (need it for stainless steel as well as batteries) and I'm thinking we have heaps of RE (solar, wind etc) for processing and manufacturing, and have remote controlled mining down pat too. So build some dedicated battery and steel factories here if this is where it comes from anyway and only ship the completed module or bulk parts instead to the nearest assembly line.

SA had 3 car plants, GM, Ford and Toyota that now have been shut down. We had dedicated car design studios etc, we're also a popular testing ground for overseas car manufacturers, university education is our fourth largest export so plenty of young recruits. But our manufacturing GDP is a laughable 5%!

So bring on Tesla manufacturing to Oz!

 

[Tinker71]

Tesla is exploring mining Lithium in Nevada and it’s been suggested that they might make their cathode plant right at the lithium mine location so they only have to transport the finished product to the battery factory which should save a lot on shipping. They could do something similar in Australia assuming they could find similar lithium deposits.

Well they better figure this out. I was reading batteries will be the constraint in 2023-24. For most of us getting our CT is more about the ramp than the start. Tesla might not bother scaling to 250,000 units per year if they think will be limited by batteries.

Panasonic's announcement today that they will be bringing on 2 4680 lines in mid 2023 was interesting.
1.) They have growing faith in 4680 form factor, but they were obviously studying the hell out of it. Otherwise they would have committed earlier.
2.) They have less faith in the solid state noise. CATL is saying no true solid state mass manufacturing until 2030. I am starting to believe them.
3.) If we get our CT it probably won't be 2nd rate until 2030. So 5 years of being the top dog?

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