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Shipping and cleaning is hardly the holdup here ... its the manufacturing. The 18 month ramp up was for some 5k/wk (250k a year). For that to happen they should be cranking out 10k a month by the end of this year - or put it in another way, entire FS order completed in a month. Beast is a...

That is not a bad assumption. My guess is - Tesla has a set number of FS they want to make - some 10k, as reported by some info from a supplier. Remember Tesla can't do all this in total secrecy, they need to order parts from suppliers that may be unique to FS. - They will continue sending...

I'll take the other side of this bet. In other words, if they can only deliver a few thousand (or even 15k) CTs this year, then the ramp is in major trouble - that would be like the first 4 quarter production of the much troubled X. They even delivered more S in the first 4 full quarters - 19k...

I'll link the surveys when I get time. Simply put most buyers don't like the car dealership experience compared to say buying clothes at a shop.

Car dealers and car buying experience are rated at the very bottom consistently in US over many years. So, while Tesla may not have solved the problem, car buying experience definitely needs fixing.

The point is not that they will not continue to make FSCT if they can't increase volume - the point is they will do there at most to increase volume and start selling non-FS. Because that is the plan - and managers get fired if they can't execute on the plan in a timely manner. Elon has fired...

There are atleast a few senior managers in Tesla whose job depends on ramping up CT production, so that Elon can show some progress to investors. Thats why we will not see slow roll out of FSCT to 2 million reservation holders.

Wow ... getting close to my 11289* ...

Tesla thinks everyone out there is waiting to get them … so, secrecy is part of Tesla. Its also the reason, IMO, they shutdown the VIN tracking ability.

Oh … my guess is there are a lot of holes in that, so the actual delivered is quite a bit less. But the overall idea that the list here represents <10% of the total deliveries sounds likely. It is also likely that the % of earlier deliveries is less than later … because earlier deliveries...

How do you figure 1400 have already been delivered ?

So you think they will only make a few thousand CTs this year ?

I doubt it. I think they will draw 112889* as the line in sand ... given my RN is 11289* ;)

As a share holder, I'd be disappointed if they did ! I want them to ramp up soon - and start offering non-FS CTs to everyone. The longer the FS thing goes on - the longer it is taking to ramp up.

I'm RN11289.... so, I'll be watching for when you receive your invite ;) I'm unlikely to order, tough.

I cross checked the tracker for the first couple of quarters against the delivery data Tesla published. The tracker only captured a small % - so definitely I misremembered. Compounding the problem is that many of the first deliveries were to employees that were not captured in the tracker ...

Yes ....FSD has a steep learning curve. Most people apparently never get over the curve and thus don't use it. People like me use it all the time - having figured out when to trust it and when not to. But in general you need to pay attention ... but its very useful to me reducing fatigue and...

The Model 3 tracker on TMC back in 2018 is a good indicator. IIRC a very large % of early orders/deliveries were captured by the tracker. I don't remember the exact number - but possibly more than 50%. ps : Wiki - Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet | Tesla Motors Club pps : When I get some...

That should be hidden behind an API - without FSD/AP or for that matter interface between AP/FSD and the CT API needing to worry about the inner mechanics of CT control. All I'm saying is if I was Ashok - I'd be more worried about how to interface and test rather than wait for CT to complete...

I’d expect them to be developing control interface for AP/FSD and the tweaking CT control software in parallel. IMO the interface will take more time to develop/test than for the control software for CT to start stabilizing.