😱 Tesla working on a CyberSUV?

[dalton108]

While autonomy opens up a lot of revenue and margin potential, we are a decade or more away from it being able to replace the volume needed to justify large assembly lines and factories. Tesla has to sell drivable vehicles in the meantime and will continue to sell them for a long, long time. Especially considering the regulatory issues that come with autonomy where gov'ts will be incredibly behind the technology. Tesla still can't get FSD in Europe today... we're probably talking in the decades before Europe has wide scale autonomy.

So while drivable cars are going to be diminished moving forward, we are a long time from them being phased out. At Tesla's scale, we're talking about ~3m robotaxis that need replaced per year, on vehicles that have useful lives of likely ~6 years. The network would need to be in the realm of 18m autonomous vehicles to support that level. As a point of reference, Uber has less than 8m drivers globally and they clearly don't work full time. Even if you cut those numbers in half, the amount of of users needed to be at the scale that Tesla wants is massive. There is unlikley to be enough volume anytime soon to fully replace drivable vehicles.

TLDR To keep the factories going and the costs down, Tesla will need to produce and sell drivable vehicles for a long time. Until we're to the point they are ~2-3x the size of Uber today.

Remember when everybody complained because Apple removed the headphone jacks “too soon?” Yeah, I think they intend to do that here. Irrespective of what becomes of the Cyber-SUV; I think that Elon is hell-bent on Apple-ing this moment.

Though to be fair there are some indications that they may be losing their nerve. Reinstalling turn signals and the recent Robotaxi seen with side mirrors may be evidence of that.

Apple never turned back though and everyone followed them. I don’t think there’s any question that Elon wants that moment when it comes to autonomy.

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[hemiarch]

I agree. I think there’s only one thing that you can say from the video and these models appearing in it: It was an accidental and if it was in any way unplanned, it was approved after the fact.

Beyond that, I have no idea what it means. Hence the, “Maeby.”

I love the Maeby.

 

[YDR37]

TLDR To keep the factories going and the costs down, Tesla will need to produce and sell drivable vehicles for a long time.

Agree. But I don't think Tesla is putting significant resources towards the development of any new drivable vehicles (other than the already-announced Semi and Roadster). Tesla is investing in autonomy instead.

Sure, we could continue to see refreshes and tweaks to the existing S3XY and Cybertruck models. But there won't be a CyberSUV, or any other fundamentally new drivable models.

From Elon's perspective, drivable cars are on their way out, like satellite TV. OK, there is still money to be made by providing satellite TV service, but the future of satellite connectivity is Starlink.

 

[henchman24]

Remember when everybody complained because Apple removed the headphone jacks “too soon?” Yeah, I think they intend to do that here. Irrespective of what becomes of the Cyber-SUV; I think that Elon is hell-bent on Apple-ing this moment.

Though to be fair there are some indications that they may be losing their nerve. Reinstalling turn signals and the recent Robotaxi seen with side mirrors may be evidence of that.

Apple never turned back though and everyone followed them. I don’t think there’s any question that Elon wants that moment when it comes to autonomy.

Elon, despite what many try to say, is not an idiot. He knows that to scale as fast as he wants (which will be fast than they actually can), they need the infrastructure. The infrastructure is almost completely paid for by vehicle sales. Until the program can be self-funding, the sales will be necessary. That tipping point is still a long ways away.

Agree. But I don't think Tesla is putting significant resources towards the development of any new drivable vehicles (other than the already-announced Semi and Roadster). Tesla is investing in autonomy instead.

Sure, we could continue to see refreshes and tweaks to the existing S3XY and Cybertruck models. But there won't be a CyberSUV, or any other fundamentally new drivable models.

We have the new cheaper model coming out too. They are investing in both still. The drivable will naturally scale back as the fully autonomous scales up... but both are still happening. Plus, there is a ton of overlap between them and it isn't a one or the other situation fully. With steer/throttle/brake by wire, there isn't a huge increase in development to add drivability to platforms. Some additional hardware being paid for by CT and some tuning needed... but at scale, those at tiny costs. The CT is a shining example where they could really remove or add the controls with very little difference. We have actually seen this with some Cybercab prototypes as well where there is a wheel, and we don't know for sure, but alluded to having pedals too as early safety precautions for testing.

What this all really says is with the decoupling of the mechanical controls of steering, braking, and throttle input, it becomes rather trivial to adding or subtracting driving controls. All platforms moving forward will be designed to be autonomous with the the ability to add in driving controls.. until the point where Robotaxi is at the scale needed where customer sales are no longer needed. Those controls will likely be included on any customer sales, but deleted on the Tesla fleet. This provides flexibility to the Robotaxi ramp while still allowing for customer sales.

 

[dalton108]

Elon, despite what many try to say, is not an idiot. He knows that to scale as fast as he wants (which will be fast than they actually can), they need the infrastructure. The infrastructure is almost completely paid for by vehicle sales. Until the program can be self-funding, the sales will be necessary. That tipping point is still a long ways away.



We have the new cheaper model coming out too. They are investing in both still. The drivable will naturally scale back as the fully autonomous scales up... but both are still happening. Plus, there is a ton of overlap between them and it isn't a one or the other situation fully. With steer/throttle/brake by wire, there isn't a huge increase in development to add drivability to platforms. Some additional hardware being paid for by CT and some tuning needed... but at scale, those at tiny costs. The CT is a shining example where they could really remove or add the controls with very little difference. We have actually seen this with some Cybercab prototypes as well where there is a wheel, and we don't know for sure, but alluded to having pedals too as early safety precautions for testing.

What this all really says is with the decoupling of the mechanical controls of steering, braking, and throttle input, it becomes rather trivial to adding or subtracting driving controls. All platforms moving forward will be designed to be autonomous with the the ability to add in driving controls.. until the point where Robotaxi is at the scale needed where customer sales are no longer needed. Those controls will likely be included on any customer sales, but deleted on the Tesla fleet. This provides flexibility to the Robotaxi ramp while still allowing for customer sales.

I’m not saying he’s an idiot. I’m saying he’s determined.

 

[henchman24]

I’m not saying he’s an idiot. I’m saying he’s determined.

I agree he's determined, and he's going to make autonomy happen. I'm saying he knows what pays the bills, and he won't kill that until autonomy is solved and the margins are there.

 

[dalton108]

I agree he's determined, and he's going to make autonomy happen. I'm saying he knows what pays the bills, and he won't kill that until autonomy is solved and the margins are there.

I don’t fundamentally disagree with anything you’ve said in any of your posts.

What I have said and what I mean is that I think he will move more aggressively than what people will think is prudent; like Steve Jobs did. And I know he takes a lot of inspiration from Jobs which fuels a lot of his current complaints re: Apple.

Beyond that, I have no idea what the man is going to do. It’s all speculation.

Or rather, I guess I should say I have no idea when he’s going to do it. He’s literally given us four different plans outlining WHAT he’s going to do.

 

[YDR37]

We have the new cheaper model coming out too.

The "new cheaper model" is a stripped-down Model Y -- it's not a brand new model. Elon confirmed this in the 2Q 2025 earnings call on July 23:

Tesla has been toying with the idea of a more affordable, entry-level model for years. In April, Tesla said it would start production of such a vehicle in June, but we still weren't sure what to expect from this less expensive Tesla. Now, in the company's 2025 second-quarter earnings call, it confirmed that production has begun, with CEO Elon Musk providing a clearer picture of what form this new model will take.

"It's just a Model Y," Musk said, confirming an earlier report. While Tesla had been reportedly developing an entirely separate entry-level car, potentially named Model 2, a report in April 2024 from Reuters claimed that the project had been canceled. But rumors persisted of a more affordable Tesla, with hints that it might not be a separate model and instead just slot in as a stripped-down version of an existing Tesla. Now we know for certain that this entry-level Tesla will just be a more basic Model Y, which is Tesla's bestseller

I said that we could continue to see refreshes and tweaks to the existing S3XY and Cybertruck models, and the stripped-down Model Y fits that description (as does the recently-released stripped-down RWD Cybertruck). But I don't expect to see any completely new drivable vehicles from Tesla, except maybe for the already-announced Semi and Roadster.

 

[henchman24]

The "new cheaper model" is a stripped-down Model Y -- it's not a brand new model. Elon confirmed this in the 2Q 2025 earnings call on July 23:

There are size and equipment differences, but it is based on the same platform with many of the same parts. Franz has also confirmed it will have new styling. It isn't really any different than the Y and 3 being related and the S and X. Platform sharing is a pretty common tactic to keep costs down and manufacturing capability up. If a 'new model' is a whole new platform introduced, you'd be surprised how few new models are actually produced in the auto industry.

 

[YDR37]

We have actually seen this with some Cybercab prototypes as well where there is a wheel, and we don't know for sure, but alluded to having pedals too as early safety precautions for testing

I'm sure there are prototype Cybercabs with a steering wheel and pedals for testing purposes, but I would bet that such vehicles are never offered for sale. The Cybercab is autonomous or nothing.

 

[henchman24]

I'm sure there are prototype Cybercabs with a steering wheel and pedals for testing purposes, but I would bet that such vehicles are never offered for sale. The Cybercab is autonomous or nothing.

I agree they won't offer it, but it shows the capability and ease of adding controls to any platform with the technologies they have developed. Platforms will transition from being primarily driver focused to be autonomous focused, but the platforms will be able to do either for a relatively trivial investment.

 

[YDR37]

Platforms will transition from being primarily driver focused to be autonomous focused, but the platforms will be able to do either for a relatively trivial investment.

If a vehicle platform is truly built from scratch with a focus on autonomy, then it becomes possible to design vehicles that have no place for a driver.

For example, the Tesla Robovan has no windshield, and the only seats at the front of the vehicle face backwards. It's not meant to accommodate a driver. And while the Robovan may seem like a concept vehicle, Amazon is currently testing Zoox vehicles in Las Vegas and San Francisco with a similar configuration. In fact, the Zoox is meant to travel just as easily in "forward" or "reverse". To make a drivable version, you would need duplicate driver's seats, steering wheels, pedals, and controls at both ends of the vehicle, which seems pointless.

If and when true autonomy is achieved, there will be vehicle designs with radically different layouts that what we are used to. Autonomous vehicles are not simply going to be traditional vehicles minus the steering wheel and pedals.

 

[henchman24]

If a vehicle platform is truly built from scratch with a focus on autonomy, there may not be a place for a driver.

For example, the Tesla Robovan has no windshield, and the only seats at the front of the vehicle face backwards. It's not meant to accommodate a driver. And while the Robovan may seem like a concept vehicle, Amazon is currently testing Zoox vehicles in Las Vegas and San Francisco with a similar configuration.

Potentially they can be produced like that, but the Cybercab has a focus for autonomy and clearly has the ability to have a wheel and pedals. The Zoox vehicles could be quickly adjusted to have a driver. Make the windshield clear instead of blacked out, turn a seat around, add pedals. The Robovan would need a windshield and similar. It isn't like these are huge things to engineer compared to the rest of the vehicle. As of today, without the need for mechanical connections, driver controls can be put anywhere and as long as they can see. I have major doubts that the Robovan will not have glass up front, but is possible.

Also vastly different vehicles can be produced on the same platforms and have the same underpinnings. MEB from VW carries the ID3, a Golf like vehicle and the ID7 a larger mid size 3 row SUV and everything in between. The GS platform has spawned everything from the Evo 10 to a Minivan to Jeep SUVs. Once the underpinnings are designed, the form factor and shapes are much easier to tweak, even more so since mechanical links are no longer needed).

 

[ABILISK]

I could see Tesla eventually releasing the new Roadster, but I doubt they have any other new non-autonomous vehicles in the pipeline. Earlier this year, Lars Moravy (Tesla's VP of Engineering) indicated that the Roadster would be the last drivable Tesla

Pshhh that clearly just means the Cybersuv will come out before the Roadster.

Jokes aside, yeah, possibly. But they need that expensive CT production line to make them money. CT isn’t doing it (for reasons unbeknownst to me - it’s the best thing ever made), so it’s not unthinkable that they’d go another direction on the same chassis.

 

[Sjohnson20]

Large SUV EVs are doing better than the trucks so maybe they will do it. Rivian R1S outsells the R1T. The Hummer SUV sells ok. I guess if they can do it on the same platform it may happen.

Tesla doesn't have a large SUV. It makes sense. They will make another vehicle at some point. And I think it's too early for the Cybercab to be the next one.

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