Anti-EV idiocy

[SwampNut]

I did a multi-day trip with no charger, SC only. Lots of errands around Southern CA. I planned a charge around lunch stops. There's a rule, apparently, that all SCs must be a very short distance away from some very good authentic Sichuan food. A quick lunch still brings the car to over 96%.

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[Zabhawkin]

Many are already in this sprial. Nissan Sales are down 50% since 2015. You are exactly right, but I have no idea how they can lower prices with minimal profit margins now. Most likely they will continue to cut jobs and manufacturing capacity as they use product scarcity to hold pricing up. Basically ICE car manufacturers are going to be shadows of their former glory.

It is already upon us. Model Y was the highest selling car in Germany overall in September and they are volume constrained still. New car pricing also just rolled over for the first time in 5 months last week.

I literally just saw this video post on Nissan’s troubles.

Nissan is largely in the hole because of the last CEO who decided it was a good business strategy to cut corners to lower the price of the cars while relying on the reputation for quality to continue to sell cars.

Long story short quality suffered and people went to other brands. We purchased a 2013 Pathfinder because the 99 Frontier I had was so reliable, it only lasted us 2 years before we replaced it.

 

[Cherokee180C]

Okay then, what is your reasoning that explains the other manufacturers down between 20%-45%. Nissan may be worse than the others for that reason, but they are now projecting ICE vehicle sales overall for 2022 to be in the 13-14 million range. Don’t say Covid either, as this trend started way before covid which may have just accelerated the fall.

 

[Crissa]

I always wonder at the people who seem to act like EVs drive around with a long extension cord.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

I always wonder at the people who seem to act like EVs drive around with a long extension cord.

-Crissa

Some do:

 

[Crissa]

Some do:

That seems like such a bad idea.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

That seems like such a bad idea.

-Crissa

Yeah but it works. Problem is that is that it is very hard to get enough batteries on a tractor without making them too heavy which leads to soil compaction. The other issue is the energy density of batteries is not high enough to do meaningful tillage work, with lots of physical soil moving that takes up energy. So a cable actually makes it cheaper and more efficient. But I agree it looks a bit nuts superficially. If anything I'd adopt a system that uses Pivot Irrigator booms instead, that have robot machinery that can operate along them.

 

[Crissa]

Cable reels are heavy and it severely limits the field size and distance. Few fields have high power lines run to them.

Kind of negating the 'but batteries are heavy and expensive' problem.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

Cable reels are heavy and it severely limits the field size and distance. Few fields have high power lines run to them.

Kind of negating the 'but batteries are heavy and expensive' problem.

-Crissa

The line on the tractor obviously only allows for movement in proximity to a underground/overhead power connection and doesn't weigh as much as the amount of battery it would use to do a days work, even with a midday or more charging stops. We're talking about 100kW or more continuous, so a MX pack would be empty in just 1 hour. Then try to do an 8 hour shift a day with charging times, let alone 12-14hours in harvest/seeding time. You'd need a Megapack on it to do that.

There are other methods though to grow things, with less energy demand, I'm just trying to demonstrate the limits of current battery tech if we use current practices. Biofuels would fit better to farming machinery, as they could use waste harvesting residue to create both biogas fuel and fertiliser without using fossils for either.

My favorite tractor is this one, if I were a broadacre farmer, which I'm consciously not:
(A megawatt of batteries, or 10MX packs, would only last an hour on this thing ? )

 

[Zabhawkin]

When I was visiting some of my wife's family in Kansas they asked about battery powered tractors during harvest. They told me that during harvest they run the tractors nearly 24 hours a day for a week only stopping to change drivers and fuel up. I told them that the tractors would probably wind up using some sort of bio-fuel.

Realistically bev wont replace all current usage but there are cleaner options even in those instances.

 

[SwampNut]

Yesterday:

Can you refuel your EV from a gas can?

Sort of, with a generator, yes. Can you refuel your gas car from a random outlet like you can find anywhere? Such as...right over there (point to landscape lighting outlet by parking space).

 

[firsttruck]

Okay then, what is your reasoning that explains the other manufacturers down between 20%-45%. Nissan may be worse than the others for that reason, but they are now projecting ICE vehicle sales overall for 2022 to be in the 13-14 million range. Don’t say Covid either, as this trend started way before covid which may have just accelerated the fall.

Some things that might increasingly put downward pressure on new passenger vehicle (cars, suvs, pickups) sales:

Rise in both upfront costs and total cost of ownership (TOC). Besides inflation, vehicles cost more because of need for more stringent pollution controls, engine management, crashworthiness, crash avoidance systems, passenger safety systems, more expensive electronic chips & electronic entertainment systems.
In a few years all new cars in U.S. might have drunk driver & impaired driver detection systems.

Insurance costs.

Passenger vehicles (cars, suvs, pickups) lasting longer.

Market saturation in largest markets (U.S. Europe)

Uber/Lyft/ Didi - many deciding they do not need to own. What will happen when there are millions of robotaxis??

Many young adults deciding that because of Uber/Lyft/ Didi they do not need to learn to drive.

Many elderly deciding that because of Uber/Lyft/ Didi they do not need to replace old vehicles.

Osbourne Effect of some buyers delay purchasing ICE to wait for new better EVs

 

[firsttruck]

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Teens Don't Have Interest in Driving Anymore and That's OK Thanks to ride sharing apps, teens aren't as anxious to get behind the wheel as previous generations. But should parents be insisting their kids learn to drive when it comes time anyway? Experts weigh in.
By Melissa Klurman
Published on April 10, 2020
https://www.parents.com/kids/respon...ave-interest-in-driving-anymore-and-thats-ok/



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Survey: 1 in 4 Teens Too Scared to Drive
A new survey by The Zebra reveals which teens are most scared, parents’ fears about teen driving, and why their worries are warranted.
By The Zebra - Zebra searches all of the top insurance companies, in one place.
Updated August 30, 2022
https://www.thezebra.com/resources/research/teen-driving-fears/#key-finding-1

Key Findings 1. Teens say driving is scary—and it’s causing them to delay getting licensed. 2. Parents agree, and their worry may influence teens more than they realize. 3. Teens really are more at risk than other drivers on the road. Here’s why. 4. What can parents do to help their teen safely join the ranks of licensed drivers?


*** firsttruck, I did not expect the finding below but I probably should have because of history of all the unrealistic & exaggerated fears voiced by this group. More afraid of terrorism than actual targets ( NYC & DC ), voter fraud, etc ***

Rural parents more fearful than others: More parents in rural communities expressed fear of their teen driving (65%) than parents who live in urban (54.5%) and suburban (56.5%) communities. (As previously noted above, rural teens were conversely the least afraid of driving, while urban teens were the most afraid.)

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[firsttruck]

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What percentage of the American population do the elderly make up?
Share of old age population (65 years and older) in the total U.S. population from 1950 to 2050

Year % of total
Year population
1980 11.3%
1990 12.5%
2000 12.4%
2010 13.1%
2020 16.9%
2030* 20.6% (* projected)
2040* 21.6% (* projected)

Share of old age population (65 years and older) in the total U.S. population from 1950 to 2050
- Statista
Published by Erin Duffin, Sep 30, 2022
https://www.statista.com/statistics/457822/share-of-old-age-population-in-the-total-us-population/

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As Boomers Slow Down, Will the Economy Follow?
By Sarah Chandler
Updated September 14, 2021
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080614/boomers-slow-down-will-economy-follow.asp

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[Crissa]

Yesterday:

Can you refuel your EV from a gas can?

Sort of, with a generator, yes. Can you refuel your gas car from a random outlet like you can find anywhere? Such as...right over there (point to landscape lighting outlet by parking space).

I do that with mine all the time!

-Crissa

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