CT order timeline now 6-8 weeks?

[YDR37]

I expect the CT will see the biggest quarter ever for deliveries provided they can keep up.

The CT's best quarter. according to Cox data, was 3Q 2024, with an estimated 14,416 sales. For the most recent quarter, in 2Q 2025, Cox estimated 4,306 sales.

So to set a sales record in 3Q 2025, CT sales would have to more than triple from last quarter's level. That seems unlikely to me. I do expect 3Q 2025 sales to increase from the 2Q 2025 level, but not by a factor of 3.

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[Mini2nut]

It could be a record Q3 for Cybertruck sales with the $7500 tax credit disappearing on 9/30.

 

[REM]

I would think that the $7500 EV tax credit which requires you to take delivery by 9/30/25 would have caused a large influx of orders for the AWD models among those who have been on the fence. It's just 10 weeks away and you have to take delivery by then, not just place an order by that date.
I expect the CT will see the biggest quarter ever for deliveries provided they can keep up.

This just made me realize that ending the EV and solar tax credits will actually spark a surge in sales lmao. The powers-that-be are always playing us like a fiddle ?

 

[KG206]

I would think that the $7500 EV tax credit which requires you to take delivery by 9/30/25 would have caused a large influx of orders for the AWD models among those who have been on the fence. It's just 10 weeks away and you have to take delivery by then, not just place an order by that date.
I expect the CT will see the biggest quarter ever for deliveries provided they can keep up.

I don’t think as many people as you think who qualify for the credit, are purchasing $71,500 trucks.

 

[CyberChickenSeller]

I don’t think as many people as you think who qualify for the credit, are purchasing $71,500 trucks.

100% agree and some of us purchased a Tesla after they hit their 200k mark and they still exploded in growth.

 

[KG206]

100% agree and some of us purchased a Tesla after they hit their 200k mark and they still exploded in growth.

Admittedly, I haven’t been devouring CT news like I once was….so I may have missed it. Are you saying there’s more than 200k CTs on the road?

I have certainly seen more in the past couple months here in the Seattle area.

 

[YDR37]

This just made me realize that ending the EV and solar tax credits will actually spark a surge in sales lmao. The powers-that-be are always playing us like a fiddle ?

The conventional wisdom is that yes, EV sales are expected to surge in 3Q 2025.

The bad news is that EV sales are then expected to crash hard in 4Q 2025. According to Cox:

The EV market will suffer a dramatic shock at the end of September, as the federal government’s $7,500 EV tax credit will sunset thanks to a new law.

Cox Automotive analysts expect a sales rush as the end gets near. “With government-backed incentives set to end in September and economic pressures mounting, the second half of the year will be a critical test of EV demand,” says senior analyst Stephanie Valdez Streaty. “Q3 will likely be a record, followed by a collapse in Q4, as the electric vehicle market adjusts to its new reality.”

 

[YDR37]

Are you saying there’s more than 200k CTs on the road?

Not close.

In 2024, Tesla sold about 39,000 Cybertrucks in the US. Through the 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2025, Tesla sold about 11,000 Cybertrucks in the US.

Throw in a few hundred that were delivered at the end of 2023, a few thousand for Canada, and a thousand for early July 2025. The grand total is in the 50,000-60,000 range.

The cantrail recall affected all Cybertrucks produced through February 2025, with an announced total of about 46,000. The count has gone up by something like 5,000-10,000 since February..

 

[KG206]

In 2024, Tesla sold about 39,000 Cybertrucks in the US.

Through the 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2025, Tesla has sold about 11,000 Cybertrucks in the US.

Throw in a few hundred that were delivered at the end of 2023, a few thousand for Canada, and a thousand for early July 2025. The grand total is in the 50,000-60,000 range.

That’s pretty much right on money with number I put together with a quick search.

Maybe they meant something else?

 

[SanJuanCT]

That’s pretty much right on money with number I put together with a quick search.

Maybe they meant something else?

People are taking delivery of VINs in the 80k range now. Has to be more than 60,000 on the road?

 

[YDR37]

People are taking delivery of VINs in the 80k range now. Has to be more than 60,000 on the road?

No. Many VIN numbers are skipped; they never get issued.

The cantrail recall, in March 2025, revealed that 46,096 Cybertrucks were produced through February 27, 2025. The VINs in late February were around 64,000 to 65,000. So in February 2025, the VINs were running about 18,000 - 19,000 ahead of total production. That was five months ago, the difference could easily be more than 20,000 now.

 

[KG206]

No. Many VIN numbers are skipped; they never get issued.

The cantrail recall, in March 2025, revealed that 46,096 Cybertrucks were produced through February 27, 2025. The VINs in late February were around 64,000 to 65,000. So in February 2025, the VINs were running about 18,000 - 19,000 ahead of total production. That was five months ago, the difference could easily be more than 20,000 now.

Ok but VIN and amount delivered/on the road surely aren't the same number, right?

Edit: I may have misunderstood you're quoted comment

 

[CyberChickenSeller]

Admittedly, I haven’t been devouring CT news like I once was….so I may have missed it. Are you saying there’s more than 200k CTs on the road?

I have certainly seen more in the past couple months here in the Seattle area.

2018 2019 EV tax credits

 

[TyPope]

I would think the dismal quarter report was due, in part, to the Cant rail recall. Tesla couldn't sell vehicles until a fix was developed, right?

Once that fix was figured out, they had to alter some processes which may have slowed production further. They are also having to produce Cant rails for everyone with an affected truck. Though, they haven't produced mine yet...

 

[Cyberostachu]

It's probably due to the cantrails. New vehicles cannot be legally sold with pending recalls.

Make sense to me.

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