Ogre
Well-known member
- First Name
- Dennis
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2021
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- 166
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- Ogregon
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- Model Y
Solid state has always been a red herring.Well they better figure this out. I was reading batteries will be the constraint in 2023-24. For most of us getting our CT is more about the ramp than the start. Tesla might not bother scaling to 250,000 units per year if they think will be limited by batteries.
Panasonic's announcement today that they will be bringing on 2 4680 lines in mid 2023 was interesting.
1.) They have growing faith in 4680 form factor, but they were obviously studying the hell out of it. Otherwise they would have committed earlier.
2.) They have less faith in the solid state noise. CATL is saying no true solid state mass manufacturing until 2030. I am starting to believe them.
3.) If we get our CT it probably won't be 2nd rate until 2030. So 5 years of being the top dog?
Texas is supposed to have 100 GWh capacity by end of 2022. That’s enough for 250k big battery Cybertrucks and 600k Model Ys. Should be plenty to get Cybertruck production up to volume. If they switch the mix to 50% dual motor trucks, that adds a lot of headroom for things like the Semi and the Roadster.
Panasonic production is likely to be used for something else or for a later batch of Cybertrucks.
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