CyberBeast deliveries -- begin when?

[newwave1331]

I think @cvalue13 and @Wraven have summarized the difference between VIN activation and assignment pretty good but I'll add one point about VIN activations.

I don't know exactly how many of the activated VINs are actually produced. VIN skipping could be happening where they activate the VIN but have no plans to build that VIN. I look at VIN activations as being the upper limit of how many units are have been built, are being built currently or within a couple of days. The QC checks and final sign off could be longer than a couple days. One example would be when we saw a bunch of trucks in the one lot that were missing upper plastic trim.

The vocabulary of "Capture Date" and "Capture Time" are just the date and time that I saw that VIN being active on the recall website. Early on in the development of my process, I was finding activated VINs but I didn't know how long before that date that they were active. Now I can tell you the actual date of activation because I have done over 330,000 individual scans over the last ~40 days.

Does Tesla publish this data for
All to see or is it from an insider source? If one could advise if all can see it how to access that ? Thank you for this clarification! Yea to be sure, patience is a virtue…. Stoicism is helpful. Cheers

I'm just another average joe reservation holder polling the recall site a few thousand times per day. I've have private messaged a few forum members interested in doing what I do and none have been successful or at least devoted enough to do the job. I don't blame them because me and Elon's current compensation packages are very similar.

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[cvalue13]

I don't know exactly how many of the activated VINs are actually produced. VIN skipping could be happening where they activate the VIN but have no plans to build that VIN.

this specific piece is unlikely. There is a build plan, with VINs, by which they activate in furtherance of that plan

but separately:

I look at VIN activations as being the upper limit of how many units are have been built, are being built currently or within a couple of days. The QC checks and final sign off could be longer than a couple days.

this much is definitely true, and means there is not a consistent time period between activation, end of build, to delivery - especially this early in ramp.

a build could not complete the line for a QC reason, then have to be reallocated to a new VIN.

a build (or series of builds) could complete the line, but still be awaiting some bottlenecked part and the build set aside until the part is obtained and later finished.

or, an entire series of VINs could be set aside and held for a QC check if, for example, a single build in the series evidenced a particular type of QC issue and prudence requires confirmation there were no more in the series affected but missed.

Obviously, when there are no parts bottlenecks and the line is humming our builds at spec, there will appear far more consistency in activation->build->transport.

but this vehicle and this line aren’t there yet.

accordingly, we’re getting a much more choppy view at how a VIN activation relates - from a timing perspective - to a transport/delivery.

 

[prmody]

you’re confusing two entirely different things

our thread on VIN activations is one thing. Specifically, it shows when Tesla activates a VIN number prior to building the unit that will receive that VIN.

conversely, another thing is when a customer with an order receives a VIN from Tesla, which occurs ~after that unit has been built and when Tesla decides to allocate that build to that customer




see link above. The underlying data is “from Tesla” insofar as we’re tracking when Tesla itself activates a VIN prior to beginning building a unit.

we here (esp @newwave1331 ) are scraping that data, collating it, and then collectively observing the trends in rates of VIN activations (a rough proxy for rate of builds), build blend trends (how many AWDs vs Beasts), apparent pauses in production (using pauses in VIN activations as a rough proxy), etc.

is it perfect data? No

is it wildly more informative than people’s drone observations of the outbound lot, armchair emotional hopium, etc.? Absolutely





on this point, if you go review the last several pages of our VIN activation thread you’ll get the vibes

but in short: there have been so few Beasts built since the delivery event, I don’t think Joe Public should get their hopes up for a Beasr delivery anytime soon. That is because there are likely still MANY VIPs/employees/friends and family orders who still haven’t gotten their Beasts yet. Beyond and since the delivery event units, there have been fewer than 15 Beasts built.

this is in contrast to AWDs, of which at this point there have been over 600 built. So VIPs etc are more filled up, allowing Tesla to start dripping out towards select Joe Publics.**

With Beasts, we simply have no idea how long the VIP etc ‘backorder’ line might be. So even if we see them activate 100 beast VINs, we shouldn’t necessarily expect to see Joe Public getting one of those anytime soon. Hopefully. But tempered expectations.



**Even then, it’s not clear how many true Joe public’s are getting even AWDs yet. Do some double-clicking on people saying “not an employee” and you’ll often find they have an eg Tesla YouTube channel and were at the ATX delivery event based on purchase referrals, etc.

Thanks for explaining the process at a great depth.

Perhaps this has been mentioned and I missed it. I am curious to know why Tesla would activate 28-37 VIN now as opposed to in December. I would expect that they would activate VIN sequentially and new activations would be north of 1000.

 

[cvalue13]

Perhaps this has been mentioned and I missed it. I am curious to know why Tesla would activate 28-37 VIN now as opposed to in December. I would expect that they would activate VIN sequentially and new activations would be north of 1000.

this gets back to the previously mentioned build plan

the build plan is for VINs 0000-0050 to be Beasts.

The build plan has other VIN blocks for AWDs.

because of the Beast bottleneck, they’re only getting to 28-37 Beast builds now.

other blocks of Beast VINs are elsewhere within the first 1200+ VINS, also still waiting

 

[Crissa]

I sorta made the assumption there would be some Cyberbeast deliveries peppered in now, since there were some at the delivery event. (I don't think any got delivered then, tho).

-Crissa

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