cybercab question

[EVnewbie]

At first maybe, but in 8 years they will no longer sell vehicles to consumers and will end FSD subscriptions. Robotaci, Semi and Optimus will be the way, replacing UPS, FedEx, Amazon delivers, Uber, Lyft and most shopping/delivery services.

That’s not happening within 8 years, I would bet anything. Even if the technology is there, which it is still not, the regulatory hurdles will be immense. My bet is 8 years from now won’t look that much different than today.

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[Scorpious]

That’s not happening within 8 years, I would bet anything. Even if the technology is there, which it is still not, the regulatory hurdles will be immense. My bet is 8 years from now won’t look that much different than today.

Regulatory hurdles are going to be overcome, information lower in the post about this. From there it's just a matter of producing the vehicles and Tesla already has all the data it would need to submit for approval.

Elon Musk has repeatedly targeted at least 2 million units per year at mature scale (he mentioned this in late 2024/early 2025 contexts, with some references to potentially up to 4 million ultimately across multiple factories). My guess will be 3 million per year once the production ramps and suppliers are in full swing.

People keep talking about human transport. That will be a smaller portion of the market. Goods transport (Semi) and delivery (Optimus) using the same vehicles will be bigger with volume of vehicles allowing human transport between deliveries. Deliver of goods total market ~$193–$203 billion in 2024. Ride hailing services ~$250–$300 billion USD. If Tesla can take 10% of those two markets then that is $44.3 billion per year on low end and $50.3 billion on the high end for just 10% of the market in each of those fields. Delivery of goods also removes some of the things around human transport. such as cleaning of vehicles and gives Tesla a way to ramp Optimus while training it for other tasks such as lawncare. "Rent Optimus to cut your lawn" type of tasks should be relatively easy for them to train it to do.
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H.R. 7390, the SELF DRIVE Act of 2026 (full title: Safely Ensuring Lives Future Deployment and Research in Vehicle Evolution Act of 2026).

What the bill does (key points on the federal framework)It updates federal motor vehicle safety laws (title 49 U.S.C.) to give the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) clearer authority and tools specifically for ADS-equipped vehicles. Main goals:

• Require manufacturers to submit a "safety case" (detailed evidence that the vehicle’s design, hardware, software, cybersecurity, etc., doesn’t create an unreasonable safety risk) before sale or deployment.
• Direct NHTSA to issue final safety standards/rules by Sept 30, 2027 (including how to certify safety cases).
• Create a National Automated Vehicle Safety Data Repository (final rule by Sept 30, 2026) for crash/incident reporting when ADS is engaged, plus quarterly mileage data.
• Allow testing and limited commercial operations (passengers/freight) during evaluation, with oversight.
• Provide limited federal preemption of state laws (e.g., states can’t block sale/import of compliant ADS vehicles or require duplicate crash reports), while preserving state authority over traffic laws, registration, insurance, inspections, etc.
• Use SAE International definitions for automation levels (3–5) and require NHTSA to keep them updated.

The bill is explicitly designed to end the current patchwork of state-by-state rules and give the U.S. a single national standard for approvals, testing, and deployment — while emphasizing safety and U.S. competitiveness vs. China.

Other related bills, a few others exist (e.g., S. 1798 — Autonomous Vehicle Acceleration Act of 2025 in the Senate, and H.R. 4661 — AMERICA DRIVES Act for commercial trucks), but none are moving as quickly as H.R. 7390. There’s also talk of folding AV provisions into the big 2026 surface transportation reauthorization bill.

 

[Scorpious]

Not everyone, not me. No way I’m going to use a ride share every day of my life. I’m certain that there will be millions of others that feel the same way. It’s not practical for tons of reasons. It’s fine for an everyday cookie cutter commute, and certain times when someone just needs a ride somewhere. I go all sorts of places and then on the flys decide to go somewhere else and sometimes some places off road too.

Robotaxi will be much more than just human transport. Think Optimus riding along and performing package delivery. This could easily disrupt companies like UPS, FedEx, Amazon Delivers. Additionally, Optimus could use a Robotaxi to be delivered to your house for certain "rental" situations such as lawncare. These are easy wins that will let people get more comfortable with seeing Optimus out and about as well as Robotaxi vehicles on the road.

 

[Gigahorse]

At first maybe, but in 8 years they will no longer sell vehicles to consumers and will end FSD subscriptions. Robotaci, Semi and Optimus will be the way, replacing UPS, FedEx, Amazon delivers, Uber, Lyft and most shopping/delivery services.

Agree with your assessment long term, but think the timeline will be closer to 15-20+ years before that happens given Tesla's history and Elon's previous timeline estimates.

 

[Empty tank]

I wanted to purchase one for my college-attending daughter. She uses it while home, but I'll put it to work when she's back at school.

 

[DaBagBoy]

and another update while we debated

 

[TyPope]

Little tidbit. There are a LOT of cars on the road. As more and more become electric and more become Cybertaxis, the cost to purchase other vehicles will rise significantly.

- Picture Ford selling 30% fewer vehicles in a short timeframe, say 10 years.
They'll begin losing economy of scale.

-Imagine gas stations with 30% fewer customers. Their prices are going to have to rise to keep the lights on.
-- Right when you'd think "hey, supply and demand" will work in my favor and bring cheap gas", you will be wrong.

Take this to the extreme. 70% of cars are EV or Cybertaxi equivalents.

- How much does a gas station have to charge for gas to stay in business when it has just 30% of the customers it used to have?
-- I mean, they'll still have $2.50 Snickers bars so there's that...

- How expensive will ICE vehicles be when manufacturers are just selling 30% of what they were?

The economic measure regarding vehicles is changing.

 

[Empty tank]

Just got my answer!!
Plus two years!!!!!
Elon's math...
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/3...will-sell-the-cybercab-this-year-to-consumers

 

[SCTesla]

Just got my answer!!
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/3...will-sell-the-cybercab-this-year-to-consumers

Boring Co, maybe, but not customers in the traditional sense.

 

[not_elon_]

Hopefully it’s available to purchase as it’s the only other Tesla I’m interested in besides cybertruck just from an aesthetic standpoint.

 

[Urander]

 

[not_elon_]

When will there be a pre-order deposit like every other Tesla release.

 

[SCTesla]

When will there be a pre-order deposit like every other Tesla release.

When they decide they want to sell it to actual consumers.

 

[hemiarch]

I’m ready to get shafted again. Sign me up for the foundation series cybercab with the floor mats and the $2500 DoorDash credit

 

[not_elon_]

And free supercharging once all the most loyal customers have already bought theirs.

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