First Down Year In Deliveries

[BannedByTMC]

Every other existing model has had a major refresh since the release of the Model Y

Minor body changes mostly limited to the front bumper, those are not "a major refresh". 2010 Model S has the same silhouette as a 2025, most people couldn't tell any difference unless they saw the front bumper. X and 3 are similarly unchanged. We'll see what they do to the Y but I expect similar minor changes to the front and rear as the 3.

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[YDR37]

More vehicles were sold in 2023 than in 2024.

This is probably not true for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) specifically, although final numbers are not yet available.

During the first first three quarters of 2024, global BEV sales were up, relative to 2023. The fourth quarter numbers will probably follow the same pattern.

So as of now, it's looking like the global market for BEVs grew in 2024 -- yet Tesla deliveries were down. That's not ideal.

 

[nevetsyad]

You realize buying one share now, gives you the same percentage of the company as it would buying two cheaper shares after a split, right? Or buying half a share now vs one share post split.

Just slowly buy whatever you can afford every paycheck. $100/month or whatever. Dollar cost average that $h!T.

I wish TSLA would do a massive stock split so I could dump my life's savings in before the robot taxi network is turned on.

 

[HaulingAss]

Minor body changes mostly limited to the front bumper, those are not "a major refresh". 2010 Model S has the same silhouette as a 2025, most people couldn't tell any difference unless they saw the front bumper.

I'm not talking about minor styling changes, I'm talking about numerous improvements ranging from new features to efficiency and range improvements to better performance and handling, ride quality and NVH.

That leaves the Model Y as the most aged (least improved and never re-styled) model in the lineup and yet it's the best-selling car in the world for the last two years.

Auto sales are cyclic, the article was wrong to omit the fact that total sales of all manufacturers combined were down in 2024 while simultaneously attributing Tesla's sales decline to "aging models". By their reasoning, all manufacturers must have aging model lineups. if so, it's wrong to call out one of them as if they are the only one. The article doesn't have to have outright and blatant lies to be a misleading and biased hit piece.

The media should seek to inform their patrons, not mislead them with fake narratives.

 

[HaulingAss]

This is probably not true for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) specifically, although final numbers are not yet available.

During the first first three quarters of 2024, global BEV sales were up, relative to 2023. The fourth quarter numbers will probably follow the same pattern.

So as of now, it's looking like the global market for BEVs grew in 2024 -- yet Tesla deliveries were down. That's not ideal.

I didn't say lower deliveries were ideal. I said it wrong to attribute it primarily to an "aging lineup". It's higher interest rates, more options, tighter consumer spending, etc. Attributing Tesla's lower sales to an "aging linup" is just meaningless rhetoric designed to reduce consumer appeal for Tesla's vehicles. The media has been using this misleading "aging lineup" rhetoric against Tesla specifically, for years now (even when the economy was strong, interest rates were low and Tesla's were selling like hotcakes). It's purposefully designed to reduce the appeal of a Tesla.

Sadly, the media does not exist to inform, it exists to mislead. There's money in that.

 

[REM]

You realize buying one share now, gives you the same percentage of the company as it would buying two cheaper shares after a split, right? Or buying half a share now vs one share post split.

Just slowly buy whatever you can afford every paycheck. $100/month or whatever. Dollar cost average that $h!T.

Yep! I currently have zero shares though, and would want to jump in which I can buy the most rather than trickle buying over a long period of time. Also, I'm waiting to see if Rocketlab goes back down a bit so I can buy back in lol

 

[BannedByTMC]

I'm not talking about minor styling changes,

Like it or not that's what the general public sees, vehicles that are essentially unchanged since introduction. Few people have any idea of the many "under the hood" changes that take place. The Y is the best selling because it's in the best selling market segment and is the second newest model from the company.

 

[furbyland]

Compare this to all other EV manufacturers and see their meager tiny growth or lack thereof for many of them. Particularly Polestar, GM, Ford, were significantly lower. Rivian had growth but sales were microscopic compared to Tesla and still far from being close to profitability. Tesla does need the more entry level priced vehicle and Elon says that’s coming soon.

 

[MadMaxTX]

Actually, aging is more than just minor trim changes. Our original 2018 M3 was a great car for us. The "refreshed" M3 is much better in a number of ways, not just style and trim. Technology, ride, road noise, interior -- all are better and worth buying a new one, although the old one was low mileage, perfect condition. Just consider the hardware level if nothing else. So, yeah, they need to upgrade the line and they are doing it.

As far as the reaction to the earnings, that's an emotional issue for a lot of people as well as a data point for analytical purposes and guessing (forecasting) the future of the company. Not too long ago, when the stock was soaring around $450, I wrote here that it was maybe time to lighten up and I took my own advice. I reduced my position by 2/3, booked a very nice gain and I'll restore it when the stock falls enough. I haven't decided that number yet but probably below $300.

If you keep emotion out of it, you can profit nicely on other's emotional reactions. IMHO, it's kind of silly to argue that 2024 was a great year. It's what I expected and that's working out nicely. A great year would have been if they did all of the investment they did and in addition, knocked it out of the park in sales.

Longer term, I do have worries about CT. It's a great vehicle, love it, but how many can they sell and at what price? Competition is also a concern. Always is.

 

[BannedByTMC]

Elon did initially say that if the CT didn't sell well they'd do a more conventional truck, so maybe if sales don't substantially improve this year they may do that. Of course that was the old Elon.

 

[HaulingAss]

The Y is the best selling because it's in the best selling market segment and is the second newest model from the company.

Nope, the Model Y is the best selling car or truck in the world because it offers incredible value for the price. Safety, Performance, Economy, roominess and a comfortable composed ride. Styling is almost non-existent, it looks like a baby Beluga whale to me, yet I realize how much value it offers most motorists. Look at the car it displaced, the Toyota 2022-2023 RAV4:

The RAV4 was restyled for the 2022-2023 MY while the Model Y still had it's original styling from it's reveal in 2019 and release in 2020 and yet the Model Y still outsold it four years later!

Then for the 2024 MY Toyota restyled it again with a more aggressive front end, bigger grill, sleeker side mirrors, etc. and yet the same old Model Y from 2020 still outsold it!

The best-selling cars go to buyers who are not that interested in cars, they just want a good reliable, practical car.

How do you think the boring Toyota Corolla held the title of best-selling car for so many years? It's never been known as a fashion statement, it's just a cheap, practical car.

The new Model Y available this quarter will have some styling updates, but they will just be styling tweaks like the other Tesla Models have all had since the Model Y was introduced.

My question to you is whether the media will still refer to Tesla's model lineup as "aging" with the refreshed Model Y? And does the media refer to Toyota's lineup as "aging"? The fact is, all automakers have an "aging" lineup, but the media just focuses on Tesla's lineup to create the impression that Tesla is behind the times (when in fact, it's the other way around).

Tesla has the most modern cars available in North America. One could argue that Chinese automakers are on par with fresh styling, but those cars aren't even available here.

My wife just got a 2024 Model 3 Performance late last year and it looks substantially sleeker, meaner, and more modern than my 2018 Performance, but the biggest difference is in four fundamental areas:

1) Much quieter, smoother ride
2) Better handling and road holding.
3) Faster acceleration
4) Better efficiency/longer range

Yet the media ignores that, preferring to call Tesla's model lineup "aging" and you just lap it up!

 

[HaulingAss]

I reduced my position by 2/3, booked a very nice gain and I'll restore it when the stock falls enough. I haven't decided that number yet but probably below $300.

I'm very confident TSLA will never trade below $300 again. It's actually a screaming buy right here in the high $300's if you have a two year time horizon. It will probably happen a lot sooner than that but it's good to give yourself enough time. Honestly, most investors have a lot longer of a time horizon if they are investing for retirement.

AI and robotics are about to propel TSLA to unbelievable new highs. There will be violent moves to the upside that will be impossible to time reliably. Grid scale battery storage is going to help. Tesla just opened it's vertically integrated Megapack Gigafactory in Shanghai and is already producing cells and Megapacks. It only took them 7 months to build the factory and get it running! The thing is a cash printing machine but AI in the form of humanoid robots and self-driving car technology will dwarf it.

Every investor who thinks of Tesla as primarily an automaker is going to miss out on huge profits because those kinds of investors will always think TSLA is too expensive for an automaker. The joke will be on them. The best way to profit is to buy and hold. Dollar cost average to build a position as large as possible.

Longer term, I do have worries about CT. It's a great vehicle, love it, but how many can they sell and at what price? Competition is also a concern. Always is.

What competition? The Ram EV truck? The Sierra and Silverado EV truck? The F-150 Lightning? Are you kidding me? Those things cost around $110-$150K just to manufacture and are basically pieces of crap compared to a Dual Motor Cybertruck for under $80K.

Nobody in their right mind could consider them serious competition when they have to sell them for many 10's of thousands of dollars less than they cost to manufacture! That's not competition, that's slitting their own throats! And their gas and diesel options keep getting more expensive to make while the Cybertruck gets cheaper.

Please tell me you are joking!

 

[YDR37]

OK, so Tesla deliveries dropped slightly from 2023 to 2024, but only by 1.1%. However, that number doesn’t tell the whole story. Troy Teslike, an independent analyst, reports that Tesla sales dropped furthest in the following regions:

-10.3% Europe

-6.1% US

-2.1% Canada

Tesla deliveries actually rose in other markets:

+8.5% Mainland China

+5.9% Rest of World (mostly other Asia/Pacific countries)

As a result, China surpassed the US as Tesla’s biggest market in 2024. By the end of the year, there were more Tesla deliveries in China than in the US and Canada combined.

The shift towards China could affect Tesla’s revenues and profits. It’s obviously cheaper to build Teslas in China than in the US or Europe, but at the same time, Teslas sell for much less in China, both because customers have less money and because the EV market is very competitive. We may find out more when Tesla posts earnings on January 22.

Another possible effect is that Tesla may give more consideration to China when developing new products. The Cybertruck was obviously designed for the North American market, where full-sized pickups are huge sellers. And that made sense in 2019, when the Cybertruck was announced; at that time, Tesla deliveries in North America dwarfed those in China by nearly 5 to 1.

But China has no “pickup culture”, and it’s not clear if the CT will ever be sold there. You have to wonder if Tesla would even greenlight the CT today, given that it appears to be a poor fit for their biggest market.

 

[J.Graham]

I'm very confident TSLA will never trade below $300 again. It's actually a screaming buy right here in the high $300's if you have a two year time horizon. It will probably happen a lot sooner than that but it's good to give yourself enough time. Honestly, most investors have a lot longer of a time horizon if they are investing for retirement.

AI and robotics are about to propel TSLA to unbelievable new highs. There will be violent moves to the upside that will be impossible to time reliably. Grid scale battery storage is going to help. Tesla just opened it's vertically integrated Megapack Gigafactory in Shanghai and is already producing cells and Megapacks. It only took them 7 months to build the factory and get it running! The thing is a cash printing machine but AI in the form of humanoid robots and self-driving car technology will dwarf it.

Every investor who thinks of Tesla as primarily an automaker is going to miss out on huge profits because those kinds of investors will always think TSLA is too expensive for an automaker. The joke will be on them. The best way to profit is to buy and hold. Dollar cost average to build a position as large as possible.




What competition? The Ram EV truck? The Sierra and Silverado EV truck? The F-150 Lightning? Are you kidding me? Those things cost around $110-$150K just to manufacture and are basically pieces of crap compared to a Dual Motor Cybertruck for under $80K.

Nobody in their right mind could consider them serious competition when they have to sell them for many 10's of thousands of dollars less than they cost to manufacture! That's not competition, that's slitting their own throats! And their gas and diesel options keep getting more expensive to make while the Cybertruck gets cheaper.

Please tell me you are joking!

Mic Drop! ??

 

[YDR37]

What competition? The Ram EV truck? The Sierra and Silverado EV truck? The F-150 Lightning? Are you kidding me? Those things cost around $110-$150K just to manufacture and are basically pieces of crap compared to a Dual Motor Cybertruck for under $80K.

Nobody in their right mind could consider them serious competition when they have to sell them for many 10's of thousands of dollars less than they cost to manufacture! That's not competition, that's slitting their own throats! And their gas and diesel options keep getting more expensive to make while the Cybertruck gets cheaper.

Please tell me you are joking!

Um, it's looking like the F-150 Lightning may have outsold the Cybertruck in the US during 4Q 2024.

Ford just reported 10,703 F-150 Lightning sales in the US during 4Q 2024.

Tesla won't release exact numbers for the CT, but they can't be much higher, and may well be lower. Tesla will only reveal that there were a total of 23,640 deliveries of the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck globally during 4Q 2024. Troy Teslike estimates that 9,600 of those were Cybertruck deliveries in the US.

It's not clear that the F-150 Lightning is profitable for Ford. On the other hand, it's not clear that the non-Foundation Cybertruck is profitable for Tesla.

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