Foundation AWD vs Foundation CyberBeast Deliveries

[triggerbanger]

I've read this subject on several different threads so I thought I'd create a dedicated thread to (try to) clear things up.

Those "in the know", is it true that they will be only building the Foundation AWD first (Dec-May) then the CyberBeast (in June)?

Or will they build a mix, leaning toward the AWD, to not have the Foundation CyberBeast completed orders wait?

I fall in the the later, and obviously would love to get my Beast as early as possible.

Thank you!

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[cvalue13]

Cyberbeast will be built, but rarely (compared to AWD) for now.

After the delivery event on Nov. 30, Tesla has registered only one (1!) VIN # for a Cyberbeast build - while >200 AWD VINs have been registers.

Going further back, including all RC/MC and Foundstiin builds (including a bundle of Beasts handed over in connection with the Delivery Event), the total build blend has been about 9-to-1 favoring AWD.

Here’s the overall data, since the first Release Candidate build at GFTX began back on ~June 1, 23, to the date of this post.

Build Type	AWD	Cyberbeast	Grand Total
RC (600-724)	100	20	120
MC (801-906)	95	10	105
Showroom (1200-1219)	20		20
Foundation (0-1199)	187	21	208
Grand Total	402	51	453

This and more info from our Cybertruck VIN Tracking Thread


There’s a Beast driveline parts bottleneck, which if resolved *could* change the build blend.

In theory, if driveline parts become infinitely available, they could reverse the build blend and play catch-up on the Cyberbeast backlog. Building instead eg 9-to-1 in favor of Beasts, until caught up.

However, it’s also possible that Tesla plans to keep Beasts relatively rare (as halo products), even if the bottleneck breaks. In which case perhaps they catch up, but not at a pace of eg 9-to-1.



Ultimately we don’t know Tesla’s intended/aspirational build blend, only current build blend and VIN registration data (plus a dash of clandestine info).

Since the delivery event on Nov. 30 to the date of this post, Tesla has registered a about ONE (1) VIN for a Cyberbeast build. In that same time, they’ve registered almost 200 AWD VINs.

VIN registrations always exceed actual production and assembly figures, so Tesla’s conceivably to date (since the Delivery Event) begun assembly on no Cyberbeasts, and somewhere shy of 200 AWD units.

While that blend is surely not Tesla’s aspirational goal, even if the Beast bottleneck is resolved, and even if Tesla then plays catch-up for a period, we don’t know Tesla’s aspirational blend goal.

Some may think/say Tesla would like to sell more Beast than AWD, due to higher profit in Beast. This is certainly a reasonable take.

Some may counter that the Beast is a Halo product, and as such marketing and corporate interests in maintaining exclusivity of the Beast availability would be weighed in Tesla’s aspirational blend. This is also a reasonable take.




But the reality is, given the early demand and reservation backlog for Cybertruck, any normal course aspirational build blend may be secondary to Tesla seeking to fulfill order backlogs.

This forum’s order tracking chart, presently shows around a 6-to-4 ratio of AWD to Beast orders.

But with the present build blend of 9-to-1 in favor of AWD, that means the average Beast order will be waiting for delivery ~9 times longer than the average AWD order.

Put differently, in terms of wait times between order and delivery, the line for Cyberbeasts is 9 times longer than the line for AWDs.

From an optics and customer satisfaction perspective, this will eventually become a problem Tesla wants to resolve, regardless of their ultimate aspirational build blend.



However, Tesla’s recent communications about delivery expectations for Foundation AWD vs Beast suggest that Tesla foresees the bottleneck extending for some time.

In the initial Dec. 8th tranche of Foundation order invites, Tesla’s stated delivery estimates for AWD was Dec. 23 to March ‘24, while for Beast it was ‘early 24.’

But in the most recent Dec. 15 tranche of Foundation order invites, this changed to AWD “Jan. 24 to May 24,” and Beast to ‘mid- to late-24.”

This recent update suggests that, however many Beast-to-AWD orders they’ve received, they don’t expect to catch up to AWD with their bottleneck.

If this Forum’s order chart is any decent proxy of Tesla’s order blend, around 6-to-4 in favor of AWD, it means they anticipate still quite a lot of bottleneck through all build/deliveries in 2024.

And that’s just for Foundation series.


When it comes to normal retail units, it seems *possible* that Beast configurations don’t open up until at least late 2024, while normal retail AWD could open up as soon as Q2.

Or Later.


Let’s assume for the moment that Foundation orders have finished, so Tesla’s most recent delivery timing is what it takes for Tesla to finish Foundation deliveries.

In that scenario, Tesla is wrapping up Foundation Beast deliveries not until late 2024. That would suggest normal retail order confirmations don’t go out until say Q3 for first retail deliveries in day Q4.

If instead Tesla isn’t yet done taking Foundation orders, it means the next tranche should come with a further delivery expectation, further out.

Not until we know for certain that Tesla’s done taking foundation orders, and have any then-current info on expected Foundation delivery timelines, can we have any idea how much further PAST the end of year before normal retail Beast order/deliveries begin.

(And yes, I assume Tesla’s delivery estimates are made with best-present view as to production capacity forecasts.)


Been needing to draft this sort of update for the VIN tracking thread, which I’ll update now - so thanks for the prompt and opportunity.

 

[triggerbanger]

Cyberbeast will be built, but rarely (compared to AWD) for now.

After the delivery event on Nov. 30, Tesla has registered only one (1!) VIN # for a Cyberbeast build - while >200 AWD VINs have been registers.

Going further back, including all RC/MC and Foundstiin builds (including a bundle of Beasts handed over in connection with the Delivery Event), the total build blend has been about 9-to-1 favoring AWD.

Here’s the overall data, since the first Release Candidate build at GFTX began back on ~June 1, 23, to the date of this post.

Build Type	AWD	Cyberbeast	Grand Total
RC (600-724)	100	20	120
MC (801-906)	95	10	105
Showroom (1200-1219)	20		20
Foundation (0-1199)	187	21	208
Grand Total	402	51	453

This and more info from our Cybertruck VIN Tracking Thread


There’s a Beast driveline parts bottleneck, which if resolved *could* change the build blend.

In theory, if driveline parts become infinitely available, they could reverse the build blend and play catch-up on the Cyberbeast backlog. Building instead eg 9-to-1 in favor of Beasts, until caught up.

However, it’s also possible that Tesla plans to keep Beasts relatively rare (as halo products), even if the bottleneck breaks. In which case perhaps they catch up, but not at a pace of eg 9-to-1.



Ultimately we don’t know Tesla’s intended/aspirational build blend, only current build blend and VIN registration data (plus a dash of clandestine info).

Since the delivery event on Nov. 30 to the date of this post, Tesla has registered a about ONE (1) VIN for a Cyberbeast build. In that same time, they’ve registered almost 200 AWD VINs.

VIN registrations always exceed actual production and assembly figures, so Tesla’s conceivably to date (since the Delivery Event) begun assembly on no Cyberbeasts, and somewhere shy of 200 AWD units.

While that blend is surely not Tesla’s aspirational goal, even if the Beast bottleneck is resolved, and even if Tesla then plays catch-up for a period, we don’t know Tesla’s aspirational blend goal.

Some may think/say Tesla would like to sell more Beast than AWD, due to higher profit in Beast. This is certainly a reasonable take.

Some may counter that the Beast is a Halo product, and as such marketing and corporate interests in maintaining exclusivity of the Beast availability would be weighed in Tesla’s aspirational blend. This is also a reasonable take.




But the reality is, given the early demand and reservation backlog for Cybertruck, any normal course aspirational build blend may be secondary to Tesla seeking to fulfill order backlogs.

This forum’s order tracking chart, presently shows around a 6-to-4 ratio of AWD to Beast orders.

But with the present build blend of 9-to-1 in favor of AWD, that means the average Beast order will be waiting for delivery ~9 times longer than the average AWD order.

Put differently, in terms of wait times between order and delivery, the line for Cyberbeasts is 9 times longer than the line for AWDs.

From an optics and customer satisfaction perspective, this will eventually become a problem Tesla wants to resolve, regardless of their ultimate aspirational build blend.



However, Tesla’s recent communications about delivery expectations for Foundation AWD vs Beast suggest that Tesla foresees the bottleneck extending for some time.

In the initial Dec. 8th tranche of Foundation order invites, Tesla’s stated delivery estimates for AWD was Dec. 23 to March ‘24, while for Beast it was ‘early 24.’

But in the most recent Dec. 15 tranche of Foundation order invites, this changed to AWD “Jan. 24 to May 24,” and Beast to ‘mid- to late-24.”

This recent update suggests that, however many Beast-to-AWD orders they’ve received, they don’t expect to catch up to AWD with their bottleneck.

If this Forum’s order chart is any decent proxy of Tesla’s order blend, around 6-to-4 in favor of AWD, it means they anticipate still quite a lot of bottleneck through all build/deliveries in 2024.

And that’s just for Foundation series.


When it comes to normal retail units, it seems *possible* that Beast configurations don’t open up until at least late 2024, while normal retail AWD could open up as soon as Q2.

Or Later.


Let’s assume for the moment that Foundation orders have finished, so Tesla’s most recent delivery timing is what it takes for Tesla to finish Foundation deliveries.

In that scenario, Tesla is wrapping up Foundation Beast deliveries not until late 2024. That would suggest normal retail order confirmations don’t go out until say Q3 for first retail deliveries in day Q4.

If instead Tesla isn’t yet done taking Foundation orders, it means the next tranche should come with a further delivery expectation, further out.

Not until we know for certain that Tesla’s done taking foundation orders, and have any then-current info on expected Foundation delivery timelines, can we have any idea how much further PAST the end of year before normal retail Beast order/deliveries begin.

(And yes, I assume Tesla’s delivery estimates are made with best-present view as to production capacity forecasts.)


Been needing to draft this sort of update for the VIN tracking thread, which I’ll update now - so thanks for the prompt and opportunity.

Awesome response! Thanks for the analysis.

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