FSD Level 5

David R Kirkpatrick

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I hope that by 2022 we see level 5 FSD. The CT as a loaner has big potential, plus I’m not getting any younger- so a driving aide could help an old fogey living in real winter country.
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ajdelange

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Given that they don't even have working Level 3 at this point I very much doubt that Level 5 will be working by 2022. And Level 5 approved by the various certifying authorities: impossible.
 

stumby

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By 2022, I'd be happy with Level 3 fully working and Level 4 in the works.
 

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I feel that Tesla is moving faster toward level 5 than anyone, and I suspect we will be nearly there in 2022, however it will take lots of supporting statistics before the government will approve it.
 


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David R Kirkpatrick

David R Kirkpatrick

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10 maybe 20. Level 5 is an extremely difficult problem, even in fair weather.
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In 2010 the Model S and Space X vertical take off and landing were just dreams. Elon is a dreamer who loves to surprise sceptics.. In recent OTA update are stop signs, traffic lights, and even garbage cans, go Elon.
 

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I'm a little worried about Elon's slightly devious sales pitch for FSD. If full AP is converging on FSD capabilities, and AP is now included in the base price, why charge more and more for the diminishing futire FSD return? A less charitable thought is that full FSD may be a sham. I know FSD can't solve many interesting driving situations. So, hear yea lemmings, watch out for those 'cliffs' while driving!
 

ajdelange

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Your concern may in fact be justified but I think it is better to think of his advocacy more as the representations of a member of a religious sect than as the actions of a con artist. Put another way, I think he really believes what he says. I say that because I have been around (though not in) AI going back 40 years and am aware to some extent of the work of Wiener and Shannon. These guys realized that neurons are multi-input devices which either fire or not dependent on the inputs and, most importantly, that their firing properties can change over time depending on what the results of their previous firings are. This is feedback or learning. The pioneers put together at first relays, then vacuum tubes and finally transistors to build neurons "in the metal" as Wiener called it but couldn't do much as these switches were, by today's benchmarks, huge and slow. None the less they were convinced, way back in the 1940's, that thinking machines were on the way. Each advance in transistor density and speed has made the machines more powerful but the narrative today is really similar (or so seems to me anyway) as what Wiener was saying in 1948. Musk is definitely a student of Wiener (most engineers are whether they know it or not) to the extent that he has named this truck with the same name Wiener used to name his newly defined art of machine control via feedback. Elon has just developed a new hardware computing engine with architecture suited to the kind of switching needed for execution of AI algorithms. I am sure that he is 100% confident that it's only a matter of time until his software engineers come up with the algorithms (code) required for FSD at Level 5. And perhaps he's right. My experience and gut feel tell me that this is more time than I have left (but I'm pretty long in the tooth). How does one code wisdom?
 


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I'm 63 and no accidents EVER (on my driving record:cool:). If this software is fully-operational before I need it so I can say that till the day I die I will consider it a good buy.
 

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Wisdom is over rated.... if wisdom is the sum total of experience then an AI with multiple inputs should be considered wise in a short time. But people call something wise when it's right and it's not an intuitive result from their personal experience. When it's wrong they just say it's a mistake and you don't call the person unwise, just an unwise choice. There will be times when AI makes the best possible choice but the outcome will be undesirable ( better than the alternative, but alternative never happened) thus critique of the outcome is inevitable. Are you really ready for level 5?
 

lukefrisbee

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Wisdom is over rated.... if wisdom is the sum total of experience then an AI with multiple inputs should be considered wise in a short time. But people call something wise when it's right and it's not an intuitive result from their personal experience. When it's wrong they just say it's a mistake and you don't call the person unwise, just an unwise choice. There will be times when AI makes the best possible choice but the outcome will be undesirable ( better than the alternative, but alternative never happened) thus critique of the outcome is inevitable. Are you really ready for level 5?
I do understand what you said... but you made me think of what I try not to when I get anywhere near a car... the energy/potential to destroy moves to the consciousness for us old farts when we think about AI driving the vehicle. ForEVER we have driven and we have some firm software that keeps the reality of what we are doing when we use cars.
To just put that misbelief into a machines hands?????
Even if it is several magnitudes safer than I am I have to do some bigtime mental-hopscotching before I let a machine be responsible for my life.
 

ajdelange

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Wisdom is over rated....
Not at all.

if wisdom is the sum total of experience then an AI with multiple inputs should be considered wise in a short time.
If that's what wisdom were then AI would be there today. But wisdom is often defined as the perspective that comes from having experiences that one would not have had he been wise. Of course that's a tongue in cheek definition. Wisdom definitely has a component based on one's experiences, positive and negative, but it also is derived from studying the experiences of others and from understanding the environment and how it is changing and more. It is a synthesis of ones knowledge, observations, experience, intuition, raw intelligence and that very rare thing we call common sense. AI, of course, hopes to somehow include all these elements.

But people call something wise when it's right and it's not an intuitive result from their personal experience.
As you move through the arc of life you will come to understand this better. A young person analyzes what he sees and draws a conclusion. When he is right we say he's smart. An older person doesn't have to do the analysis (and often can't or at least not as easily as he did in his youth) but rather, based on his experience (including the analyses he did), intuits the conclusion. If he is consistently right we then call him wise.

When it's wrong they just say it's a mistake and you don't call the person unwise, just an unwise choice.
When people make stupid decisions we often say "That was an unwise choice". But if they do it consistently they are going to be labeled unwise. OTOH I wouldn't call Elon Musk wise, despite his obvious genius and intuition, simply because he is too young. He is still integrating.

There will be times when AI makes the best possible choice but the outcome will be undesirable ( better than the alternative, but alternative never happened) thus critique of the outcome is inevitable.
The choice that maximizes my ROI, even if ROI is negative, was the best choice, the wise choice, and thus not going to be criticized by me.

Are you really ready for level 5?
Hell no. I'm white knuckled when using autopilot now.
 
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David R Kirkpatrick

David R Kirkpatrick

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I do understand what you said... but you made me think of what I try not to when I get anywhere near a car... the energy/potential to destroy moves to the consciousness for us old farts when we think about AI driving the vehicle. ForEVER we have driven and we have some firm software that keeps the reality of what we are doing when we use cars.
To just put that misbelief into a machines hands?????
Even if it is several magnitudes safer than I am I have to do some bigtime mental-hopscotching before I let a machine be responsible for my life.
”A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it” - Max Planck 1858-1947 German physicist.
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