Is there any hope for the 40k Cybertruck?

Is there any hope for the 40k Cybertruck?

  • Yes

  • No

  • Maybe


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prl99

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Tesla said they’d sell a $39.9k truck, so Tesla will sell a $39.9k truck. Not everyone needs a 4x4, 5 second 0-60, 12,000 pound towing monster truck, most people just need a simple work truck that will haul a crew and some cargo from point A to point B. It would be a shoe-in for farmers, ranchers, and small business owners, and Tesla would build excellent, lasting rapport with average Americans. They’d be shooting themselves in the foot if they tried to make this exclusively a $100k Hummer-esque status symbol. And remember they developed this thing with low production cost in mind.
Totally agree and I represent your comment except for the farmer part. My Tacoma was the first truck I ever bought and it is now my do everything vehicle. My CT will be the same thing. I took a ride in my older brother's Model 3, he goosed the pedal and my brain was in the back seat. I almost fainted, couldn't take the G's. I have no desire to race people, just want an EV truck that does the things I want to do. As for big toys, we all know what that means.

 

JBee

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It wouldn't need to be a subscription. It would only need to be the same as fsd purchase. I'm thinking an additional 10-20k purchase price a few years down the line to unlock from 2 motor to 4 motor and additional range.

Two models. Dual and quad. One production line. What's the cost of adding 4 motors to all... A few thousand dollars to every unit? In exchange for a 2-4x return to that added overhead on a large majority of units sold, months to years down the line. Seems like a minimal loss in margin short term for an easy cash grab down the line for them. I would do that happily. For me, that would make swallowing the pill of raising the 50k dual motor price to 60k at launch, given I know the extra money is going to pay back years later when i can unlock my truck to become a better performing truck and feel like I got an all new vehicle!
From the perspective of a manufacture I find the idea of software limting hardware a stupid one. Unlike upgradable software, like pre-paying FSD, hardware actually has a cost, and the manufacturer will pay for that, but wouldn't be able to charge for it. Honestly, doesn't sound like a viable business plan.

Sure Tesla enabled some seat heating, that costs nothing in the grand scheme of things (maybe $50-100) and they also offered the performance upgrade, but that was after they had proven the battery performance could handle it after a few years of production and driving, and it already had the dual motors and controllers, because people had paid for a dual motor.

The difference here is that the hardware is already there and paid for, but the performance is not. With the quad motor there will be a bit more hardware that needs to be paid for.

But, I can see significant production streamlining resulting in a lean QM with 4WS, that could be available instead of a DM or TM. I"ve mentioned this before, but if they can modularise each wheel with the same motor, gear ratio and controller there is a possibility that we might on see a QM only model line up, but with different size battery packs, and performance based on pack size rather than motor configuration. Even the roadster needs a 200kWh pack for its performance too because of the battery C rating.

So although I think a subscription model, or pay later model does not have much value for a manufacturer, I think we might see a QM only model range, at least in the beginning, and if that goes on for a couple of years we might never get a DM because they'll be manufacturing QM so cheap and would have made a return on their capex.
 

Crissa

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The only question really is, can Tesla make enough of them - with their supply of metal and batteries - to get down to actually supplying the market for the 40k truck?

Lots of pent up demand for expensive trucks.

I think they can. They need to, so I can have mine ^-^

-Crissa
 

charliemagpie

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I agree , on the surface it doesn't make sense.

Tesla is leveraging is technical superiority against opposition price points and charging extra for its R&D expense.

Basically
If, for example, if the EV industry sells cars for $50,000 with 300 miles, Tesla can also sell a car for $50,000 but with 320 miles. If there is already a waiting list, it doesn't make sense to further blow the opposition out of the water.

Tesla could decimate the opposition, and create a 5-year waiting list. What is to gain from that ?

But Tesla can create a pack with 400 miles at the same price as creating a 320-mile pack. Why not sell the extra 80 miles as an addon ?

Tesla's job is to also maximise profit. It could create a model Y with 1500 miles today. It has created a balancing act to beat the opposition... not cream it.
 

intimidator

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How can anyone think there will be a $40,000 anything from Tesla?

That ship sailed. Inflation, increasing commodity prices, increasing labor costs, shortage of 4680's and demand all will continue to push prices up. On all their vehicles.

The first Cybertruck is RUMORED to be the Quad Version. We will be lucky if that comes out at $79,000. More likely it will be $89,999. Whether Tesla ever makes a Dual version might take several years after the launch. And there is no reason to produce a single motor version.

I would be shocked if any buyer ever gets a Cybertruck for less than $69,000 (dual).
 


intimidator

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Tesla said they’d sell a $39.9k truck, so Tesla will sell a $39.9k truck. Not everyone needs a 4x4, 5 second 0-60, 12,000 pound towing monster truck, most people just need a simple work truck that will haul a crew and some cargo from point A to point B. It would be a shoe-in for farmers, ranchers, and small business owners, and Tesla would build excellent, lasting rapport with average Americans. They’d be shooting themselves in the foot if they tried to make this exclusively a $100k Hummer-esque status symbol. And remember they developed this thing with low production cost in mind.
I am sure Elon had a goal of selling a $39,900 CT.

But things have changed - a lot - since then.

If you needed a new heat pump system in your home 2 and a half years ago, it might have cost you $9000 dollars. Today, this month, it will probably cost you $14,000 to have a 3 ton AC heat pump installed.

Prices are way higher than 2 and a half years ago....and probably will go higher.

Sigh. Kinda doesn't matter though since the delay of ramping of 4680s batteries will probably push back the ramp of Cybertrucks when they finally do start producing them. Even though I ordered early, I still don't think my # will be called until late 2024 or early 2025.
 

prl99

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I am sure Elon had a goal of selling a $39,900 CT.

But things have changed - a lot - since then.

If you needed a new heat pump system in your home 2 and a half years ago, it might have cost you $9000 dollars. Today, this month, it will probably cost you $14,000 to have a 3 ton AC heat pump installed.

Prices are way higher than 2 and a half years ago....and probably will go higher.

Sigh. Kinda doesn't matter though since the delay of ramping of 4680s batteries will probably push back the ramp of Cybertrucks when they finally do start producing them. Even though I ordered early, I still don't think my # will be called until late 2024 or early 2025.
I still think there's a chance Tesla will sell some kind of EV for less than $40K. It could be a smaller version of the CT, still without paint, but with different, lower costing batteries. It might not be before oil companies, corrupt politicians and short sellers are done taking as much money as they can before people finally shut them down. I fear the US will be one of the last major countries to get to this point but I can always hope enough people will open their eyes and demand less oil/gas and more EV/solar/wind/etc to clean up my country. For those of you outside the USA, I wish you luck in cleaning up your environment and reducing your use of fossil fuels.
 

intimidator

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I still think there's a chance Tesla will sell some kind of EV for less than $40K. It could be a smaller version of the CT, still without paint, but with different, lower costing batteries. It might not be before oil companies, corrupt politicians and short sellers are done taking as much money as they can before people finally shut them down. I fear the US will be one of the last major countries to get to this point but I can always hope enough people will open their eyes and demand less oil/gas and more EV/solar/wind/etc to clean up my country. For those of you outside the USA, I wish you luck in cleaning up your environment and reducing your use of fossil fuels.
Financially I don't think we see anything under $40,000 ever again. But we can dream I suppose.

The reality is we have inflation now. It is embedded into the fabric of the economy for the foreseeable future. We got so used to low inflation for so many years it is hard to wrap our head around it.

As far as having a unified energy policy as a country, we don't have one right now. And it appears we won't have one in the next couple of years. The money our White House claims is available to install EV chargers? I suspect they will be slow to materialize, and slow to be implemented.

IMO a robust EV charging network is one of the most important pieces to getting US consumers to convert to an EV. More than 50% of US residents live in apartments, condos, townhomes or HOAs that don't have EV Chargers.
 

cybrtrk_maybe

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I’m pretty sure he just said the first 100,000… .
Reading between the line, I concluded that he said "Only people that can be identified as 'on the fence' to secure those sales". Like someone with MAYBE in their Forum handle. :p
 


intimidator

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Have you checked their profit per vehicle lately?

-Crissa
Tesla's profit per vehicle is fantastic. Probably the best in the WORLD at over $5000 per vehicle.

And as a publicly traded company, with a board of directors, they have a responsibility to strive to maximize their profits.

And that is why there won't ever be a vehicle sold by Tesla for less than $40,000. Life (the economy) has changed since 2.5 years ago. Diesel fuel was $1.75 two and half years ago. Today it is $6 dollars a gallon. Many many costs have gone up. Both commodities and labor. And transportation.

We just have to accept higher prices are here to stay. Hummer just raised their price by $6000 dollars. Tesla has raised the prices on their vehicles significantly the last 2.5 years.

I would be happy to get my CyberTruck (quad) for $85,000.
 

alan auerbach

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Is there any possibility that we will still have a 40k Cybertruck?
If and when the seller's Cybertruck market changes to a buyer's one, there's not much inflation between now and then, and Tesla comes up with a new variant (smaller, more basic), then I'd say the possibility exists.
 

Cybertruck Hawaii

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a better question is how many people who ordered the single motor Cybertruck will be canceling their order if they are not promised what they have ordered.
 

 
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