Long Range RWD Cybertruck launched! 362 miles range w/ soft tonneau ($62,490 w/ tax credit)

[YDR37]

I predict all Tesla models will receive a $7500 price cut on October 1st, the start of Q4.

OK, here's my alternative prediction: yes, Tesla will cut prices for Q4 -- but not by the full $7,500. So the new pricing will only partially compensate for the loss of the tax credit. Furthermore, the price cuts will only apply to the Model 3, the Model Y, and the AWD/RWD Cybertrucks.

My guess is that Tesla will not cut prices for the Model X, Model S, and Cyberbeast. The loss of the tax credit won't affect the demand for these models, because they were too expensive (over $80,000) to qualify for it anyway.

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[Effonefiddy Lightning]

Sorry to cut in with an unrelated question, but is there a thread for long range CT suspension mods?

 

[PungoteagueDave]

OK, here's my alternative prediction: yes, Tesla will cut prices for Q4 -- but not by the full $7,500. So the new pricing will only partially compensate for the loss of the tax credit. Furthermore, the price cuts will only apply to the Model 3, the Model Y, and the AWD/RWD Cybertrucks.

My guess is that Tesla will not cut prices for the Model X, Model S, and Cyberbeast. The loss of the tax credit won't affect the demand for these models, because they were too expensive (over $80,000) to qualify for it anyway.

Tesla cut prices $7,500 across the board when it lost tax credits at the end of 2019. However, there was no MSRP price limit in that tax credit iteration, so all Teslas had previously qualified for the credit. I still think that Tesla WILL cut all MSRPs for all models by $7,500 on October 1. They have the pricing capacity, and demand drivers are needed for slow-take models like the S, X and CT. We are already seeing it in current discounts, low interest rates, and free FSD deals.

The loss of tax incentives will be the time to simplify pricing and prove pricing parity with ICE. As it is today, the old concept of one-price purchasing for Tesla is out the window, with demo model pricing and discounts having no logical consistency and varying from market to market. I have seen several haggling situations in recent months - supposedly an anathema to Elon and Tesla, but they've apparently lost the thread.

 

[YDR37]

I posed the question to Grok:

Will Tesla cut vehicle prices by $7,500 in October 2025, after the expiration of the Federal EV tax credit?

Here is Grok's (unusually long) response:

There is no definitive evidence that Tesla will cut vehicle prices by exactly $7,500 in October 2025 following the expiration of the federal EV tax credit on September 30, 2025. However, several sources suggest Tesla may reduce prices to offset the loss of the $7,500 tax credit, though the extent and specifics remain uncertain.

Historically, Tesla has adjusted prices in response to changes in tax credit availability. For example, in 2019, when Tesla lost parts of the federal tax credit, it cut prices by $2,000 to $3,000 to partially absorb the impact. Given the current competitive EV market and Tesla’s slimmer gross margins (down to ~17% in Q1 2025 from ~22% in 2020), analysts expect Tesla to implement price reductions to maintain demand. However, a full $7,500 price cut is considered unlikely due to margin constraints.

Analyst Troy Teslike modeled scenarios for Tesla’s response post-tax credit expiration. In one scenario, Tesla could keep prices unchanged, leading to a potential 37% drop in U.S. sales but preserving margins at 13%. Alternatively, fully absorbing the $7,500 credit would maintain sales volume but reduce margins to 8.1% and earnings per share to $0.03, making it financially challenging. Teslike suggests Tesla might opt for a middle ground, cutting prices by approximately $2,500.

Recent posts on X reflect mixed sentiments. Some users speculate Tesla will slash prices significantly after September 30, 2025, to counter reduced demand, while others note Tesla’s focus on increasing production, possibly to prepare for a more affordable Model Y variant. Additionally, Tesla’s July 2025 price cuts (e.g., $5,000 on Model Y, $3,000 on Model 3) indicate proactive measures to boost sales before the credit expires, which could foreshadow further adjustments.

Given Tesla’s history, market dynamics, and analyst projections, a price reduction is likely, but a precise $7,500 cut is not supported by available data. Tesla may instead pursue a combination of partial price cuts, new financing options, or a lower-cost model to mitigate the impact. For the latest updates, monitor Tesla’s official announcements or visit https://www.tesla.com for pricing details post-September 2025.

I'm sticking with my guess on partial price cuts. I could be wrong. We'll find out in a couple months.

 

[YDR37]

Sorry to cut in with an unrelated question, but is there a thread for long range CT suspension mods?

The "long-range" RWD Cybertruck has only been delivered during the past month or so, and my suspicion is that Tesla hasn't sold very many of them. Maybe I missed something, but I don't think I've seen any posts here from actual RWD owners yet.

The topic of RWD suspension mods sounds potentially interesting, but at this point there may not be anyone here with actual RWD suspension knowledge or experience.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I posed the question to Grok:
Here is Grok's (unusually long) response:
I'm sticking with my guess on partial price cuts. I could be wrong. We'll find out in a couple months.

Grok is using partial data to reach an incorrect conclusion in my view. It seems to miss the fact that tios did not occur all at once, so the cumulative impact over three quarters must be assessed. The 2019/20 MSRP cuts were phased in, as the credits were phased out. Tesla crossed the 200,000-vehicle threshold in 2Q2019, and the credits were phased down over the next year. My 2019 MX received a $3,750 tax credit, or half the full prior credit, as it was delivered on September 30. One day later, it would have been halved again, and the credits went away by early 2020. It was only THEN that Tesla had fully phased in the MSRP cuts that were cumulatively $7,500 per model.

To me, in the heat of the moment, it was clear what happened, as I was directly impacted. In any case, the market will control here, and I suspect the lost credits will be part of a bigger picture price adjustment that every EV maker will need to meet, because they now compete head-to-head in the automotive market overall, without government support.

 

[YDR37]

In any case, the market will control here, and I suspect the lost credits will be part of a bigger picture price adjustment that every EV maker will need to meet, because they now compete head-to-head in the automotive market overall, without government support.

Rivian is in an interesting position here, because they have already been weaned off of government support, at least for purchases. If you buy a 2025 Rivian, there is no EV tax credit (apparently because the batteries have too many foreign components). So the expiration of the tax credit could theoretically help Rivian -- for example, the loss of the credit potentially makes competitive EV trucks (like the Cybertruck or Lightning) less affordable for most people, but it should not affect the R1T.

On the other hand, 2025 Rivians do qualify for the $7,500 EV lease credit. So Rivian may have to adjust their lease terms.

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