Rivian CEO Doesn’t Think Cybertruck Will Lure Away R1T Customers... Agree / Disagree?

[GnarlyDudeLive]

My view is no, CT will not impact Rivian sales directly in the short term. Reasoning is that initially slow CT volumes and an enormous backlog will prevent a new decider to choose between the two mentioned options. If you decided in one month from now to buy a new EV truck regardless of your reasons or needs, you will be able to purchase a Rivian rather quickly whereas a CT will put you on a 4 year+ waiting list.

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[Cyberman]

Rivian's CEO RJ Scaringe explains why he's not too worried about the Cybertruck, as he explained in this interview with The Verge.

"If you were to think of, like, the Venn diagrams of [Rivian R1T and Tesla Cybertruck] customers, there's probably not a lot of overlap." He goes on to explain: the auto industry is diverse in a way that many EV proponents (often from the tech industry) just don't understand. He sees room for multiple answers to the question of the best electric truck, calling the Cybertruck "different," and says that "it's great that a product like that exists in the world" because of its contribution toward electrification.​

Delusional much?

 

[Crissa]

I could not fit my two German Shepherds in the R1T.

Buh?

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

I could not fit my two German Shepherds in the R1T.

Buh?

-Crissa

If each shepherd has two dogs and possibly a flock, the R1T would be woefully under sized.

 

[HaulingAss]

Rivian's CEO RJ Scaringe explains why he's not too worried about the Cybertruck, as he explained in this interview with The Verge.

"If you were to think of, like, the Venn diagrams of [Rivian R1T and Tesla Cybertruck] customers, there's probably not a lot of overlap." He goes on to explain: the auto industry is diverse in a way that many EV proponents (often from the tech industry) just don't understand. He sees room for multiple answers to the question of the best electric truck, calling the Cybertruck "different," and says that "it's great that a product like that exists in the world" because of its contribution toward electrification.​

One thing that is conspicuously mostly absent from the conversation is that of price and volume. Sure, as long as Cybertruck is still ramping, and selling only to reservation holders, and the Rivian is only made in relatively small numbers, there will be no real competition between the two.

But once Cybertruck can be bought off the lot, or at least be delivered within a month or so of ordering, the price will tell the tale. I think even at a relatively high price the Cybertruck will soften demand for the Rivian (and vice versa). Even though they are quite different products. But softening demand doesn't mean they won't be able to sell all they can make at a high price for some time to come. But, in the end, price will tell the tale of who can keep growing production and selling ellectric trucks at high volume.

My guess is that the Cybertruck will offer such superior value eventually that Rivian might have to be content with low volume sales at a high price (unless they can magically get their prices down while still making a small profit). Currently they lose around $33,000 per vehicle sold. That number is coming down, but probably not fast enough to get to the point they can substantially lower prices (relative to current pricing) and still make a small profit in the next couple of years.

 

[PilotPete]

I don’t see the connection between the two. Completely different vehicles, completely different missions. Yes, they are both EV Trucks, but the Porsche 911 and Honda Prelude are both coupes, both have 6 cyl engines, both have mini-back seats. But two different customers. The R1T has a target market, and the F150L has a target market, and the CT has a target market. And in the world of Venn Diagrams, there are few people who sit in two camps, and fewer still who sit in all three. Those few who sit in all three just want an EV truck. Within the R1T camp are those that want all the nooks and tunnels, and are still in the old school of what makes a vehicle a “value” (buttons, interior switches for everything, easy on the software) There are those here with CT reservations that are truck people, and those that are Tesla people. I’m moving from outside to the Tesla circle on this diagram. I’m in the overlap of Tesla and CT and 3+ and S. I’ll own 1 and maybe 2 of them in the next few years. Since I’m not in the “truck circle” or in the “any EV” circle, the R1T is not of interest to me. And since I’m also in the circle of “I’d buy a used 200,00 mile Yugo before I bought a Legacy American OEM product”, the F150L, Silverado EV, Hummer, Ram, whatever, is not even on the same diagram as I am.

I didn’t find RJ’s comments as anything other than a realistic view of the market and of this business. The CT is polarizing in its style. Almost no one looks at it and says “Meh”, you either love it, or hate it. In that aspect, it is art. It evokes emotion. The R1T has some mild updates to the traditional truck look, but stays close. The F150L tries to look just like every other truck out there. From a design standpoint, they are all different and aimed at different audiences. RJ knows that. He also knows that by the time the CT is available to the masses, they’ll be on the R2T, maybe the R3T, or maybe the R2D2. He has time on his side, and they‘ll either be profitable, or he’ll be calling up Cory looking for work. And he has the only large format SUV BEV. I don’t see any gamesmanship, or rose colored glasses.

 

[FutureBoy]

He has time on his side, and they‘ll either be profitable, or he’ll be calling up Cory looking for work.

Hmmm…. It’s probably a race to see who needs to call who first. My guess is Cory will need to call RJ before RJ needs to call Cory. Both companies have rich benefactors but Rivian is selling far more vehicles last I checked. Lucid might stay technically alive so it can create personalized vehicles for Saudi royalty but in the general marketplace they seem pretty close to dead already.

 

[PilotPete]

Hmmm…. It’s probably a race to see who needs to call who first. My guess is Cory will need to call RJ before RJ needs to call Cory. Both companies have rich benefactors but Rivian is selling far more vehicles last I checked. Lucid might stay technically alive so it can create personalized vehicles for Saudi royalty but in the general marketplace they seem pretty close to dead already.

“Hey Corey, it’s RJ”

”Hey RJ what’s going on? You’re on my list of calls to make today.”

”Well, then it’s good I called you.”

”Yeah man. Great to hear from you.“

”Hey, I was wondering, we’re thinking of maybe making some ‘changes’ around here. I’m not sure I agree with them. I was wondering…”

”Hold on… ‘You, yeah you, put that back! That’s my personal couch not Lucid property. You can’t reposes that!’ I’m sorry RJ, what were you going to say?”

“Ahhh, errrrr, ummmmm, nothing. What were you going to call me for?”

”Well, it depends, what kind of ‘changes’ are you making over there.”

”Honestly, deciding what thickness of plywood to cover the windows with before we bolt. Think Elon’s got any openings?”

”Oh crap, you too? I dunno man, I just know Sandy won’t ever take me back!”

”ok, well if you hear of something, give me a shout.”

”Will do, you too.”

”Yep, later dude.”

”Later, good luck.”

”Yeah, do you remember the number for that truck driving school?”

 

[intimidator]

Rivian's CEO RJ Scaringe explains why he's not too worried about the Cybertruck, as he explained in this interview with The Verge.

"If you were to think of, like, the Venn diagrams of [Rivian R1T and Tesla Cybertruck] customers, there's probably not a lot of overlap." He goes on to explain: the auto industry is diverse in a way that many EV proponents (often from the tech industry) just don't understand. He sees room for multiple answers to the question of the best electric truck, calling the Cybertruck "different," and says that "it's great that a product like that exists in the world" because of its contribution toward electrification.​

The only way Rivian "loses" sales to Tesla in 2023 and 2024 is IF:

a) someone has a reservation for an R1T and an early, early reservation for a Cybertruck.

and

b) is willing to pass up the Rivian, which they can get right now, and wait for the Cybertruck.

It is not like Joe Blow can drive down to his local Tesla dealer, bypassing the Rivian dealership on the way, and drive a Cybertruck off the lot.

Availability is still going to be a major issue. Heck, it is almost November and we still haven't had the Launch yet. It is quite possible the ramp in 2024 will in fact be slowish. Thus, if someone needs a truck now, they can just opt to buy the Rivian and get delivery very quickly.

 

[intimidator]

I doubt I will convert my Rivian reservation into a purchase, due to Tesla Cybertruck.

Rivian R1S is a unique vehicle, I don't see much competition/ alternatives to this off-road capable SUV if a buyer wants to stick with the traditional "SUV" shape.

Price and specs of the Cybertruck will impact 'alternatives'....either not much if the Cybertruck is "expensive" or a lot if it is priced similar to the S/X and specs are in line with the hype.

If you have a Rivian reservation, you should be able to get a Rivian very quickly. The wait is pretty nominal right now. You could get one within 1-2 months.

And depending on where you are on the current reservation list for a Cybertruck, you might be waiting quite awhile. It could be 2-3 years. If someone just now reserves a Cybertruck, it could be more like 4+ years.

 

[Trbizwiz]

I think $50K is the sweet spot for mass EV truck adoption. I think 350 miles of real range, and over 200 miles of towing range is the minimum sweet spot. If Tesla can hit the dual motor promised specs and price, they will be closest. IT seems Elon hinted at that when he said Ford had a great truck that was too expensive, while simultaneously lowering Tesla prices across the board for several months in a row.
Hopefully we will know very soon.

 

[cmugler]

Yes that was my case, tired of waiting so jumped on my early R1T reservation. With early Rivian pricing and the $7500. rebate price came to under $66,000 for me but price jumped up for later reservation holders

 

[Arctic_White]

One thing that is conspicuously mostly absent from the conversation is that of price and volume. Sure, as long as Cybertruck is still ramping, and selling only to reservation holders, and the Rivian is only made in relatively small numbers, there will be no real competition between the two.

But once Cybertruck can be bought off the lot, or at least be delivered within a month or so of ordering, the price will tell the tale. I think even at a relatively high price the Cybertruck will soften demand for the Rivian (and vice versa). Even though they are quite different products. But softening demand doesn't mean they won't be able to sell all they can make at a high price for some time to come. But, in the end, price will tell the tale of who can keep growing production and selling ellectric trucks at high volume.

My guess is that the Cybertruck will offer such superior value eventually that Rivian might have to be content with low volume sales at a high price (unless they can magically get their prices down while still making a small profit). Currently they lose around $33,000 per vehicle sold. That number is coming down, but probably not fast enough to get to the point they can substantially lower prices (relative to current pricing) and still make a small profit in the next couple of years.

In other words, Rivian is and will remain a good but niche product and will never sell in the volume that the F-150 and the others (currently) sell.

At the end of the day, it is all about ramping up the production. As the saying goes, prototypes are easy, meaningful production is hard.

 

[Arctic_White]

I think $50K is the sweet spot for mass EV truck adoption. I think 350 miles of real range, and over 200 miles of towing range is the minimum sweet spot. If Tesla can hit the dual motor promised specs and price, they will be closest. IT seems Elon hinted at that when he said Ford had a great truck that was too expensive, while simultaneously lowering Tesla prices across the board for several months in a row.
Hopefully we will know very soon.

I'd say $50K is still a bit too high. Make it in the low $40s and now you're talking.

At what price does an average pickup sells for these days? $45K?

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