Rivian CEO Doesn’t Think Cybertruck Will Lure Away R1T Customers... Agree / Disagree?

[davelloydbrown]

Rivian's CEO RJ Scaringe explains why he's not too worried about the Cybertruck, as he explained in this interview with The Verge.

"If you were to think of, like, the Venn diagrams of [Rivian R1T and Tesla Cybertruck] customers, there's probably not a lot of overlap." He goes on to explain: the auto industry is diverse in a way that many EV proponents (often from the tech industry) just don't understand. He sees room for multiple answers to the question of the best electric truck, calling the Cybertruck "different," and says that "it's great that a product like that exists in the world" because of its contribution toward electrification.​

What else is he going to say- "Rivian is toast"?

He seems to be breaking a sweat - are there lots of lights on him?

Rivian has a great truck but will the company be able to make a profit and produce enough vehicles to achieve economies of scale?

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[anionic1]

My college economics teacher told me, “consumers (everyone) are greedy maximizers”. And my lovely lowes plumbing department customer said it best one day looking for a faucet, “I want cheapa’ but betta’”. Folks, the trucks are in the exact same market. They are highly capable trucks with their nails painted pretty to get as much attention as possible. I seriously doubt anyone looking at either truck hasn’t considered both at some point. It will heavily come down to cheaper but better. If the CT comes off the press very competitively priced with the same or better features, Rivian better hold on for a bumpier ride.

 

[anionic1]

I'd say $50K is still a bit too high. Make it in the low $40s and now you're talking.

At what price does an average pickup sells for these days? $45K?

I think the average new vehicle price is now around $47k

 

[HaulingAss]

I think the average new vehicle price is now around $47k

In August 2023, the average price of a new full-sized pickup in the US was $65,557.00!

Report: The Average Price of a New Vehicle (clark.com)

I'm having trouble understanding why people think a crappy gasoline pickup is worth that kind of money while complaining the Cybertruck will be too expensive. I would have no trouble paying $70K for a dual motor Cybertruck with 350 miles of range, not for its looks but for its low cost of operation, lack of a stinky exhaust pipe, superior driving dynamics and safety, the fact I will wake up every morning to a truck charged and ready to go without having to visit gas stations or oil changes, toughened exterior that resists rust, dents and scratches, and that it will have superior capabilities and conveniences not found in gas trucks.

I mean, how many gas or diesel pickup trucks at the average price of $65,557.00 come with adjustable ride height for efficient loading and highway travel? Sure, you can get a four-wheel drive gas truck for $55K, but it's going to be stripped of many features you expect and come with the cheapest engine/transmission combo. The stereo is going to sound like crap, the headlights will suck, and the driving dynamics will basically be unsafe in an emergency maneuver.

 

[davelloydbrown]

In August 2023, the average price of a new full-sized pickup in the US was $65,557.00!

Report: The Average Price of a New Vehicle (clark.com)

I'm having trouble understanding why people think a crappy gasoline pickup is worth that kind of money while complaining the Cybertruck will be too expensive. I would have no trouble paying $70K for a dual motor Cybertruck with 350 miles of range, not for its looks but for its low cost of operation, lack of a stinky exhaust pipe, superior driving dynamics and safety, the fact I will wake up every morning to a truck charged and ready to go without having to visit gas stations or oil changes, toughened exterior that resists rust, dents and scratches, and that it will have superior capabilities and conveniences not found in gas trucks.

I mean, how many gas or diesel pickup trucks at the average price of $65,557.00 come with adjustable ride height for efficient loading and highway travel? Sure, you can get a four-wheel drive gas truck for $55K, but it's going to be stripped of many features you expect and come with the cheapest engine/transmission combo. The stereo is going to sound like crap, the headlights will suck, and the driving dynamics will basically be unsafe in an emergency maneuver.

Is this what you are talking about? (taken from my model 3 after he passed me and proceeded to tailgate the car ahead of me)

 

[HaulingAss]

Is this what you are talking about? (taken from my model 3 after he passed me and proceeded to tailgate the car ahead of me)

It's a rolling disaster to any creature with lungs, and you can see the handling deficiencies it has just watching it try to track straight over the normal bumps and dips in the road. A real ill-handling jalopy, probably driven by an angry man with a small penis complex.

 

[wtibbit]

My view is no, CT will not impact Rivian sales directly in the short term. Reasoning is that initially slow CT volumes and an enormous backlog will prevent a new decider to choose between the two mentioned options. If you decided in one month from now to buy a new EV truck regardless of your reasons or needs, you will be able to purchase a Rivian rather quickly whereas a CT will put you on a 4 year+ waiting list.

The only way Rivian "loses" sales to Tesla in 2023 and 2024 is IF:

a) someone has a reservation for an R1T and an early, early reservation for a Cybertruck.

and

b) is willing to pass up the Rivian, which they can get right now, and wait for the Cybertruck.

Both GnarlyDude and intimidator raise interesting points that bear more consideration.

So, let's consider the total pool of people who are potential CT buyers and put them in a small number of arbitrary groups.

1. Those with the earlier CT reservations, who receive invitation to order within the first 6 months of production.
2. Those with CT reservation, receiving invites to order within the following 12 months of production.
3. The rest of those with CT reservations (with invitations after the first 18 months of production).
4. Those without reservations.

Of course no one will order a CT before it is revealed and all the potential buyers learn much more about it and how it truly compares to the Rivian. That will result in decisions to buy one or the other (or neither, but those aren't part of this threads question.)

Now we can each look at each group and make our personal "educated" guesses about their decisions based on how long they would have to wait. We can even make assumptions about revealed details and estimate how many people are in groups 1, 2, and 3 to make guesses about how many would switch from CT to Rivian.

Here are some of my thoughts, using this logic...

Group 1 will likely wait to see and buy CT rather than Rivian. Unless there is some real negative surprises when we see the CT there won't be a significant affect on Rivian from this group.

Group 2 may not be able or willing to wait for their turn to buy a CT. Again, assuming no surprises in the reveal, there could be some, probably slight, positive affect on all the other EV truck sales from those in this group who can't wait. Rivian will get their share of it. (I'm in this group.)

Group 3 is where impacting Rivian and CT decisions are more likely happen, with some potential CT buyers opting to wait no longer and switching to another brand and Rivian will be in their decision space.

Group 4 is already represented in the people who are buying EV trucks today. There is essentially no competition between Rivian and CT for this group for the next few years, because the CT is not available for them to buy.

 

[chonnertruk]

This will be my first EV anything, car or truck related. As a CTOG member, I believe we're a targeted group of excited early adopters championing a significant shift in more than just green energy conversion.

We're representing a shift in what has been largely ignored by entrenched automotive industry leaders. Their existing small changes here and there or "New and Exciting" features to an otherwise boring platform just doesn't cut it in my mind any longer. Admittedly, I was on the fence with the introduction to CT, but I urgently studied the competition (before Rivian), and still believe CT will initiate huge waves of the overall EV adoption.

Beyond CT's physical presence is the supporting network behind the product. I think Rivian represents a growing trend to copy Tesla efficiencies like adopting OTA pushes. I am not aware of ANY other EV car/truck manufacturer with an end to end solution like Tesla's. I could be wrong, (and most likely am), but I truly think from a "time value of money" perspective, Cybertruck represents money well spent.

 

[intimidator]

Both GnarlyDude and intimidator raise interesting points that bear more consideration.

So, let's consider the total pool of people who are potential CT buyers and put them in a small number of arbitrary groups.

1. Those with the earlier CT reservations, who receive invitation to order within the first 6 months of production.
2. Those with CT reservation, receiving invites to order within the following 12 months of production.
3. The rest of those with CT reservations (with invitations after the first 18 months of production).
4. Those without reservations.

Of course no one will order a CT before it is revealed and all the potential buyers learn much more about it and how it truly compares to the Rivian. That will result in decisions to buy one or the other (or neither, but those aren't part of this threads question.)

Now we can each look at each group and make our personal "educated" guesses about their decisions based on how long they would have to wait. We can even make assumptions about revealed details and estimate how many people are in groups 1, 2, and 3 to make guesses about how many would switch from CT to Rivian.

Here are some of my thoughts, using this logic...

Group 1 will likely wait to see and buy CT rather than Rivian. Unless there is some real negative surprises when we see the CT there won't be a significant affect on Rivian from this group.

Group 2 may not be able or willing to their turn to buy a CT. Again, assuming no surprises in the reveal, there could be some, probably slight, positive affect on all the other EV truck sales from those in this group who can't wait. Rivian will get their share of it. (I'm in this group.)

Group 3 is where impacting Rivian and CT decisions are more likely happen, with some potential CT buyers opting to wait no longer and switching to another brand and Rivian will be in their decision space.

Group 4 is already represented in the people who are buying EV trucks today. There is essentially no competition between Rivian and CT for this group for the next few years, because the CT is not available for them to buy.

I have a November 2019 reservation for a Cybertruck.

In the meantime I bought a Lightning Lariat. Which I really enjoy and grow to appreciate the longer I have it.

I still plan to buy and take delivery of a Cybertruck, but I wasn't willing to keep waiting an unknown number of years for the Cybertruck. I needed a truck (towing the boat, and other truck things) so I pulled the trigger on the Lightning. (I had a Rivian reservation too, but preferred the frunk and back seat space of the Lightning over the Rivian)

Availability of the Cybertruck, or lack thereof, resulted in my buying the Ford. Of course I had put in early reservations for all of them. Going forward it will be most difficult to get a Cybertruck, so folks may buy the Rivian or Ford because you can get those a lot quicker. <--- my conclusion is for 2023 and 2024 the Cybertruck won't have much, if any, impact on Rivian sales.

 

[AlDente]

I think it was really gracious of RJ to give a shout out to a little BEV company like Tesla who is trying to break into the BEV truck market with their "different" (for freaks only) Cybertruck. His company is leading that BEV pickup market space by a lot and Tesla's measly 2M+ reservations don't add up to serious competition for the Juggernaut Rivian.

RJ is a true visionary and the tide he has created will lift all boats ... even the very small and different ones. ???

 

[PilotPete]

Both GnarlyDude and intimidator raise interesting points that bear more consideration.

So, let's consider the total pool of people who are potential CT buyers and put them in a small number of arbitrary groups.

1. Those with the earlier CT reservations, who receive invitation to order within the first 6 months of production.
2. Those with CT reservation, receiving invites to order within the following 12 months of production.
3. The rest of those with CT reservations (with invitations after the first 18 months of production).
4. Those without reservations.

Of course no one will order a CT before it is revealed and all the potential buyers learn much more about it and how it truly compares to the Rivian. That will result in decisions to buy one or the other (or neither, but those aren't part of this threads question.)

Now we can each look at each group and make our personal "educated" guesses about their decisions based on how long they would have to wait. We can even make assumptions about revealed details and estimate how many people are in groups 1, 2, and 3 to make guesses about how many would switch from CT to Rivian.

Here are some of my thoughts, using this logic...

Group 1 will likely wait to see and buy CT rather than Rivian. Unless there is some real negative surprises when we see the CT there won't be a significant affect on Rivian from this group.

Group 2 may not be able or willing to their turn to buy a CT. Again, assuming no surprises in the reveal, there could be some, probably slight, positive affect on all the other EV truck sales from those in this group who can't wait. Rivian will get their share of it. (I'm in this group.)

Group 3 is where impacting Rivian and CT decisions are more likely happen, with some potential CT buyers opting to wait no longer and switching to another brand and Rivian will be in their decision space.

Group 4 is already represented in the people who are buying EV trucks today. There is essentially no competition between Rivian and CT for this group for the next few years, because the CT is not available for them to buy.

I’m a group 3 guy. Sorry, but like I said, I’m not buying the CT so I can get a truck. The competition for the CT in MY driveway is an S Plaid. For me, the CT is just a really big sedan with a freakin massive trunk! I’ll haul a custom furniture piece 3 or 4 times a year (the customer just picked up the last one in their Silverado), but other than a lumber run every couple months, I won’t be doing any “truck stuff“ with mine. So even for the group 3 and 4 people, Rivian isn’t always an option. Nor is Ford, nor is Chevy, or anyone else. And since I have to wait, I’ll order the 3+P when they are available in the US to keep me busy.

 

[EVSport7]

I think the average new vehicle price is now around $47k

Trucks are at almost $60k. Hopefully the dual motor will slot in around that price point. When people can choose simply based on EV vs ICE at the same price point then all of those advantages of an EV will really shine through ?

 

[anionic1]

Trucks are at almost $60k. Hopefully the dual motor will slot in around that price point. When people can choose simply based on EV vs ICE at the same price point then all of those advantages of an EV will really shine through ?

I think if there is a dual motor 350 mi range CT under $60k, the other manufacturers might as well close shop.

 

[Crissa]

Trucks are at almost $60k. Hopefully the dual motor will slot in around that price point. When people can choose simply based on EV vs ICE at the same price point then all of those advantages of an EV will really shine through ?

What if the EV slots in along side the 50K trucks?

-Crissa

 

[wtibbit]

I’m a group 3 guy. Sorry, but like I said, I’m not buying the CT so I can get a truck. The competition for the CT in MY driveway is an S Plaid. For me, the CT is just a really big sedan with a freakin massive trunk! I’ll haul a custom furniture piece 3 or 4 times a year (the customer just picked up the last one in their Silverado), but other than a lumber run every couple months, I won’t be doing any “truck stuff“ with mine. So even for the group 3 and 4 people, Rivian isn’t always an option. Nor is Ford, nor is Chevy, or anyone else. And since I have to wait, I’ll order the 3+P when they are available in the US to keep me busy.

I'm in group 2 but like you I don't really require a pickup truck and I'm planning on using mine as "really big sedan with a freakin massive trunk", too, most of the time.

I rarely haul anything that won't fit in or on top of my Yukon XL. I regularly haul about $20K worth of bulky music equipment that has to be protected from the weather, so that "giant" SUV works great for me. I would actually prefer a "CyberSUV", but with the covered vault my functional needs are met and - if I ever need to - I can haul something too tall or too long to fit inside my Yukon. It's probably unlikely, but if Tesla does build an SUV version of the Cybertruck I might sell my pickup and buy the SUV.

I didn't expect my little logic picture to fully answer the thread's question, but to serve as a framework to aid thinking about it.

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