Ogre
Well-known member
- First Name
- Dennis
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2021
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- 26,998
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- Ogregon
- Vehicles
- Model Y
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- #1
Ok, it's been a long time since I've done any writing on investing, it used to be a hobby of mine and I wrote a few articles for Seeking Alpha for a bit.
This is kind of a fun time to follow Tesla. So far this year the stock has been in a bit of doldrums. The market as a whole is weird and I think people are just fatigued. For Tesla, everything is running like a well oiled (but weird) machine. It's been a good year for the company and profitability, but boring for investors. I think things are about to begin to get interesting as a few balls are up in the air and the shit is about to hit the fan. The next 6 months looks like a pretty exciting time if you follow Tesla stock.
Chinese Exports
Tesla started exporting cars from China to the EU. Those cars are currently en-route on a ship somewhere, but due to hit the shores of Europe by the end of this quarter. Around the same time those are getting unloaded from the boat, Tesla is going to crank up deliveries in China. In July, Tesla's Chinese factory exported a huge percentage of their cars, bound for Europe. August and September we'll see lots of Chinese Teslas delivered and the first wave of European Model Ys hitting the street.
Musk even tweeted a response to confirm this is their strategy. "Tesla makes cars for export in first half of quarter & for local market in second half. "
This isn't a huge deal, but expect deliveries in this quarter to be pretty healthy.
Giga Berlin
Musk is optimistic that Giga Berlin will start cranking out cars by October. Lots of regulatory/ approval issues there, so that might be optimistic, but if Berlin production starts ramping up, that will be a giant bump in Tesla's production numbers. Likely adds another 250,000+ per year to Teslas 1,000,000+ per year delivery rate.
Giga Texas
In spite of the fact that it's hugely unlikely the Cybertruck will be online by year end, it's almost certain we'll see Model Ys rolling out by year end. Based on comments by Musk, that's another 250,000+ unit/ year production line. On top of that, even without the 4680 coming online, the Model Ys coming out of Texas should have higher margins than the Model Ys coming out of Fremont due to the Gigapress on the front end.
4680/ Structural Battery
This is the giant of giant catalysts. It's also our bane here at CT Owners Club. I think a lot of people are frustrated at the mention of the 4680, but this is going to enable so much for Tesla. Not only is it crucial to the Cybertruck and the Semi, it will be a huge cost savings and weight savings on the Model Y as well. It's also certain to be the foundation for all further Tesla vehicles.
Or it'll be a giant trainwreck and skunk up Teslas plans for years... this is probably the single biggest risk to Teslas plans going forward. I do think they will figure it out. But if Tesla crashes and burns, this is probably going to be a big part of it.
Cybertruck/ Semi
Yeah... two new amazing, awesome products. Also, once the Cybertruck comes online that's a 3rd massive new production line. This why the 4680 is so crucial. If Tesla doesn't deliver, they've spent a huge pile of cash building a factory that will be idle.
Summary/ Giga New Year
By this time next year, there is a solid chance Tesla will be cranking out new vehicles at a rate of 1.5-2 million vehicles per year. That is the big news here. Tesla is likely to fall just short of delivering 1 million vehicles this year, but they are almost certain to hit 1.5 million next year and have a run rate of 2 million+ per year by the end of 2022. Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 are going to be pretty huge for Tesla.
TSLA is a weird/ high risk high growth stock, and it's been stuck for most of this year. I think the events coming over the next 6 months or so are going to giggle lever a bit and unstuck the stock. Lots of catalysts.
Disclaimer... I own TSLA. I'm going to be doing some weird things with options over the next few months.
This is kind of a fun time to follow Tesla. So far this year the stock has been in a bit of doldrums. The market as a whole is weird and I think people are just fatigued. For Tesla, everything is running like a well oiled (but weird) machine. It's been a good year for the company and profitability, but boring for investors. I think things are about to begin to get interesting as a few balls are up in the air and the shit is about to hit the fan. The next 6 months looks like a pretty exciting time if you follow Tesla stock.
Chinese Exports
Tesla started exporting cars from China to the EU. Those cars are currently en-route on a ship somewhere, but due to hit the shores of Europe by the end of this quarter. Around the same time those are getting unloaded from the boat, Tesla is going to crank up deliveries in China. In July, Tesla's Chinese factory exported a huge percentage of their cars, bound for Europe. August and September we'll see lots of Chinese Teslas delivered and the first wave of European Model Ys hitting the street.
Musk even tweeted a response to confirm this is their strategy. "Tesla makes cars for export in first half of quarter & for local market in second half. "
This isn't a huge deal, but expect deliveries in this quarter to be pretty healthy.
Giga Berlin
Musk is optimistic that Giga Berlin will start cranking out cars by October. Lots of regulatory/ approval issues there, so that might be optimistic, but if Berlin production starts ramping up, that will be a giant bump in Tesla's production numbers. Likely adds another 250,000+ per year to Teslas 1,000,000+ per year delivery rate.
Giga Texas
In spite of the fact that it's hugely unlikely the Cybertruck will be online by year end, it's almost certain we'll see Model Ys rolling out by year end. Based on comments by Musk, that's another 250,000+ unit/ year production line. On top of that, even without the 4680 coming online, the Model Ys coming out of Texas should have higher margins than the Model Ys coming out of Fremont due to the Gigapress on the front end.
4680/ Structural Battery
This is the giant of giant catalysts. It's also our bane here at CT Owners Club. I think a lot of people are frustrated at the mention of the 4680, but this is going to enable so much for Tesla. Not only is it crucial to the Cybertruck and the Semi, it will be a huge cost savings and weight savings on the Model Y as well. It's also certain to be the foundation for all further Tesla vehicles.
Or it'll be a giant trainwreck and skunk up Teslas plans for years... this is probably the single biggest risk to Teslas plans going forward. I do think they will figure it out. But if Tesla crashes and burns, this is probably going to be a big part of it.
Cybertruck/ Semi
Yeah... two new amazing, awesome products. Also, once the Cybertruck comes online that's a 3rd massive new production line. This why the 4680 is so crucial. If Tesla doesn't deliver, they've spent a huge pile of cash building a factory that will be idle.
Summary/ Giga New Year
By this time next year, there is a solid chance Tesla will be cranking out new vehicles at a rate of 1.5-2 million vehicles per year. That is the big news here. Tesla is likely to fall just short of delivering 1 million vehicles this year, but they are almost certain to hit 1.5 million next year and have a run rate of 2 million+ per year by the end of 2022. Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 are going to be pretty huge for Tesla.
TSLA is a weird/ high risk high growth stock, and it's been stuck for most of this year. I think the events coming over the next 6 months or so are going to giggle lever a bit and unstuck the stock. Lots of catalysts.
Disclaimer... I own TSLA. I'm going to be doing some weird things with options over the next few months.
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