The future might be privately owned Cybertrucks and Robotaxi cars - Will Tesla Robotaxis make private car ownership obsolete?

[firsttruck]

The future might be privately owned Cybertrucks and Robotaxi cars - Will Tesla Robotaxis make private car ownership obsolete?

Yes, in most densely populated areas (city, suburban ).

Insurance costs for manually drive-able private cars will increase significantly as will car purchase price, maintenance costs, parking fees, government registration fees and other fees.

The cost difference advantage to use Robotaxi will be huge.

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. https://www.tesla.com/about

In long term Tesla does not really need to sell cars. Once they can produce dedicated Robotaxis that will kill a big chunk of the individual private car ownership market. Eventually Tesla might make multiple sizes of dedicated Robotaxi ( small car, SUV).

The other market Tesla wants to transition is the high rate fossil fuel burning trucks. The Robotaxi cars/SUVs will only have limited impact on this market. In city & suburban areas, Robotaxis will be cheaper the private ownership and a couple of problems many prospective EV buyers who lived in apartments would have encountered ( where to charge, parking) will longer be problems. In rural areas the population density will make Robotaxi less cost effective, not timely available, and almost all these potential EV truck owners have plenty of room for parking with charger ( and probably easy locations to install solar or wind energy capture devices). The population in rural areas also have much higher ownership of trucks and higher everyday real-world usage for trucks (private & businesses). In city, suburban areas it will cheaper to have any unusual size or weight loads delivered.

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Will Tesla ROBOTAXI RENDER CARS OBSOLETE?! The untold possible effects of Full Self Driving! Following up on the last video, here are more thoughts on the consequences of Tesla actually getting a robotaxi working, and costing less to operate per mile than owning a car--even a used car! Geoff Shelley and I get into some fun speculation about how things could look in a decade!
Apr 23, 2022
Dr. Know-it-all Knows it all

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[Qball]

No, private car ownership will not die or won’t be till I die. This is America, we demand choices damn it!

 

[Sirfun]

The future might be privately owned Cybertrucks and Robotaxi cars - Will Tesla Robotaxis make private car ownership obsolete?

Yes, in most densely populated areas (city, suburban ).

Insurance costs for manually drive-able private cars will increase significantly as will car purchase price, maintenance costs, parking fees, government registration fees and other fees.

The cost difference advantage to use Robotaxi will be huge.

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. https://www.tesla.com/about

In long term Tesla does not really need to sell cars. Once they can produce dedicated Robotaxis that will kill a big chunk of the individual private car ownership market. Eventually Tesla might make multiple sizes of dedicated Robotaxi ( small car, SUV).

The other market Tesla wants to transition is the high rate fossil fuel burning trucks. The Robotaxi cars/SUVs will only have limited impact on this market. In city & suburban areas, Robotaxis will be cheaper the private ownership and a couple of problems many prospective EV buyers who lived in apartments would have encountered ( where to charge, parking) will longer be problems. In rural areas the population density will make Robotaxi less cost effective, not timely available, and almost all these potential EV truck owners have plenty of room for parking with charger ( and probably easy locations to install solar or wind energy capture devices). The population in rural areas also have much higher ownership of trucks and higher everyday real-world usage for trucks (private & businesses). In city, suburban areas it will cheaper to have any unusual size or weight loads delivered.

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Will Tesla ROBOTAXI RENDER CARS OBSOLETE?! The untold possible effects of Full Self Driving! Following up on the last video, here are more thoughts on the consequences of Tesla actually getting a robotaxi working, and costing less to operate per mile than owning a car--even a used car! Geoff Shelley and I get into some fun speculation about how things could look in a decade!
Apr 23, 2022
Dr. Know-it-all Knows it all

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Why will the price of insurance go up? If there are more automated way better/safer vehicles sharing the road with you and there are way less accident's, and people won't want to steal your vehicle. What would drive the cost of manually driven vehicle insurance up? I could see automated vehicle insurance being substantially cheaper, but no reason why insurance costs should go up.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

No, private car ownership will not die or won’t be till I die. This is America, we demand choices damn it!

I agree with your first two statements.

Driving and owning a vehicle will not die for the foreseeable future for the simple reason that mass transit has failed to work outside places where people either cannot or refuse to drive. And that is generally about a mile out from the center of the largest cities. That leaves the vastly greatest percentage of the real estate in this country alone. I happen to have what I consider good reasons to want FSD to succeed and have it on both of our cars. Safety for all, mobility at age, etc. Robotaxis, if and when Level 5 autonomy is achieved, will certainly do well where taxis do well, and will probably expand over time, but I would invest money in it. Elon Musk talks about how robotaxis will change society but I suspect that he doesn't drive around enough to know what he is talking about.

I hope that you are kidding about 'choice' in America. People use this term to differentiate themselves from others, when in fact choice is there for all of us, and to the same extent for the same reasons. So I am both bothered and annoyed when I hear such things.

You/we live in a society/world and we can make choices but we have agreed to limit those choices so that we can have a stable and safe environment to live in. When people put their 'freedom' of choice above all else, then safety and security for all is compromised...we no longer have a society and then its a free for all. People can say what they want but I do not think I could find anyone that would be willing to give up what we have to live in constant fear for their lives.

 

[papajamaliciousness]

The only way to find out is to wait and see. It would be financial suicide to buy a car when you can do all the transportation you need to do for a few thousand dollars per year on an ad hoc basis, no monthly insurance bill, no garage space needed, no car note. Anyone with marginally adequate finances *must* rely on robotaxis if they are safe clean reliable affordable and available. But FSD is not really working yet so I just think it's a little bit premature to arrange a funeral for the car industry. It kind of depends on our assumptions. Do we assume FSD will work 10X better than people this year. Do we assume Tesla will make these cars available for the kinds of prices Elon said. Do we assume people will behave well on these cars without turning them into garbage dumps. Do we assume Elon will not get us all hooked on these robotaxis then jack up the prices after a couple years when the rest of the auto industry has wilted on the vine. If we assume Tesla under Elon would not go full heroin dealer on us, do we assume that the next person in charge of Tesla will also not do that. Cuz I'm betting they might. After all google started charging me for services I've been depending on as free for ten years. Do we assume people will trust themselves to FSD robotaxis. There will probably be some scandals involving these robotaxis, one way or the other. If children are using these things to go home after school will they be safe? If they will be safe will it be because there are security cameras in the robotaxis, and if so to what extent will this be accepted or interfered with by the customers? Will there be competition. How fast can Tesla actually ramp up production? Assuming FSD works this year or next year and assuming robotaxis get produced en masse, what happens to Ford, GM, Chrysler, and the others? The dark horse in all this is the Chinese brands. They are making good quality Chinese electric vehicles, some of them affordable. I understand that Tesla is competing favorably against them in China, but our predictions about this issue are based on a lot of variables any one of which can throw all our speculation out the window. Not to mention other extrinsic issues that can affect the issue, like war and potential political instability in the US. We all ordered Cybertrucks years ago if I remember correctly, and we are now excited we might get these vehicles in about two years. It's premature to even realistically think about robotaxis right now since Tesla could go full bore with five more factories for ten years without catching up to the demand for the products it announced before announcing the robotaxi. Not to mention that Elon now doesn't feel he has enough to work on with Spacex, Tesla, Neuralink and Boring, and now is highly likely to acquire an international media company which he will likely reimagine from the ground up. If you connect the robotaxi to Tesla's mission statement it should jump the line and be produced before other products notwithstanding that that is unfair to those of us waiting for the other products. So I just have to stick with that, wait and see. It's easier to predict when the next star wars movie will be than it is to predict even when the robotaxis will be available, let alone the impact that they will have.

 

[TruckDaddy]

Obsolete? We want to be able to travel within 5 seconds of entering the garage. Not even remotely happening with Uber-style robot-taxis.

ROBO-TAXI: You're #37 in the Que. Press 1 for English, 2 for Spanish, 3 for Svengali...hmmm unexpected response...You are #58 in the Que, press 1 for English...

 

[CYBER PARK]

Robotaxi will be a minibus

 

[JBee]

Freedom of choice is limited to the freedom you can afford. Economic freedom is marred by monopolisation of of choices, by merging interests for profit at the top. So you can only access your perceived freedoms of choice, if you also have money to pay for them. Otherwise they just stay the American dream.

 

[Crissa]

ROBO-TAXI: You're #37 in the Que. Press 1 for English, 2 for Spanish, 3 for Svengali...hmmm unexpected response...You are #58 in the Que, press 1 for English...

All user input is error.

-Crissa

 

[CYBER PARK]

What do you want to do with the Robotaxi?

 

[slomobile]

No. Just no.
You fail to account for an immense number of reasons people choose to own vehicles rather than take taxis.

Lets look at just one. Your car stuff. People buy stuff to put in their cars. Have you ever bought something intending to leave it in a taxi?

"The global car accessories market accounted for USD 487.79 Billion in 2020 and is expected to reach USD 753.05 Billion by 2028" -https://www.zionmarketresearch.com/report/car-accessories-market

"global taxi market was valued at $69.18 billion in 2019, and is projected to reach $120.89 billion by 2027" -https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/press-release/taxi-market.html

Do you expect the much larger accessories market to just evaporate and be absorbed by the taxi market? Taxis already exist. Why would someone that has never used a taxi, abandon the vehicle they already own in order to ride in a taxi that just happens to be driven by a computer rather than a human. Charity? Does that computer have a family to support?

 

[Deleted member 12560]

OK, try using a robotaxi to bring home groceries for a family of six or more. You will be murdered by the other passengers while you put your 32 grocery bags in the trunk/frunk.

 

[Bill906]

Did I miss something. I typically think of a taxi as "generally" a one customer at a time type of service, where a bus is multiple customers continuously.

I envision robotaxi working where I request a robotaxi from an app. It tells me the ETA. When the robotaxi gets there it has no passengers (or driver) in it. I put anything I need in the taxi and tell it where I want to go (If I hadn't already entered that via the app).

Picking up multiple people along the way sounds more like a Robobus ™ . (TM Bill906 LLC 2022)

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