Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023

[DarinCT]

Niche==cult?
tl:dr
JEEP rescued Stellantis in Chrysler, Plymouth and Dodge sedan market collapse. RAM was a distant third rate truck whose 1st rate engineering enabled Stellantis to bridge the workhorse platform to SUV market with new fit and trim attention and quality improvement - now a #1 rated truck. At the end of the day there is something there connecting with buyers in both instances Jeep and Rivian.

It teaches niches can grow, bridge and platform onto category killer status. Stellantis makes prescient plays, timely EOL’s and shuffling its deck still for future of BEV. Its latest luxury Peugeot sedan strident design queues translate into EV seamlessly, albeit conventional chassis. Stellantis is a classic darkhorse in this automotive reshuffle that could accelerate out of rescued auto mfgr niche into EV player worldwide.

Rivian innovation and ability to walk before it talks speaks to people’s sense of “ShowMe”, as Tesla has so effectively done. Where Stellantis is a nimble adversity at-scale player Internationally, Rivian‘s scrappy upstart success fielding working functional prototype vehicles needs Sales to lift it to scale hurdles Tesla famously described as “production hell”. Pullout modular stowage units while hugely innovative and brand discriminator isn’t secret sauce wheel motors might prove to be. A technology like “axial flux” motors could significantly change Rivian’s calculus against unitary drivetrain EV design, i.e. Tesla, FORD. Rivian is definitely a watchlist mfgr. Failing that its cults and niches.

Well put. The one bone I would pick is that Stellantis is the sixth largest automotive maker in the world when you combine all the brands. They may be able to grab something here and there but I have a hard time seeing significant progress in the EV market on culture/engineering/savvy alone. Necessary? Yes. Sufficient? No.

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[CyberT]

The Model Y was on time.

Incorrect, Model Y was 6 months early

 

[DarinCT]

It is going to be very interesting watching the other auto companies trying to catch up to Tesla in terms of scale at this point.

By the time Giga Berlin and Tera Tesla are fully online, Tesla will be cranking out 2-3 million vehicles a year. 5,000+ Cybertrucks per *week*. Ford is planning less than 1,000 F150 Lightnings per week in 2023 and less than 375/ week in 2022.

Source?

For perspective, Ford sold 2,500 F-150 per *day* in 2019. The truck market is still the truck market, independent of ICE vs EV. I think the numbers you are taking about are more of an indication of Ford's lack of commitment than about Tesla's future success.

 

[Crissa]

Though since the Model Y, the Model S Plaid was moved back a few times, and the Model X Plaid is still in delay mode. Clearly we're back in Musk time.

I think we're more in pandemic time, to be honest.

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

Source?

For which?

Elon has said they will begin production when they have capacity for 250k+ annual:
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/tesla/cybertruck/96447/tesla-cybertruck-production-delayed-until-2022

Ford says they're expecting 15k next year. They have a ramp up and battery and chip constraints...
https://insideevs.com/news/528476/ford-doubling-f150lightning-production-target/

Everyone is waiting on the battery factories right now.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Source?

For perspective, Ford sold 2,500 F-150 per *day* in 2019. The truck market is still the truck market, independent of ICE vs EV. I think the numbers you are taking about are more of an indication of Ford's lack of commitment than about Tesla's future success.

Both Ford and Tesla have said what their production estimates are for the F150 Lightning and the Cybertruck respectively. It wasn't meant to be a comment on Tesla's future success, but about planned capacity.

If nothing else, Ford's struggle to get 50,000 Mustang Mach-Es out the door is an indication of how difficult it is to transition from making huge numbers of ICE vehicles to EVs.

 

[DarinCT]

For which?

Elon has said they will begin production when they have capacity for 250k+ annual:
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/tesla/cybertruck/96447/tesla-cybertruck-production-delayed-until-2022

Ford says they're expecting 15k next year. They have a ramp up and battery and chip constraints...
https://insideevs.com/news/528476/ford-doubling-f150lightning-production-target/

Everyone is waiting on the battery factories right now.

-Crissa

The article says 80K in 2024(twenty-four). I grabbed some numbers that penciled out to 125kWh for the standard and 170kWh for the extended. I'm guessing that the majority of the packs will be for commercial at 125kWh but easy math sake lets say 150kWh average for the line. That's 12GWh. I did some googling to see how Ford might come up with that. Turns out SK Innovation is already planning a second plant and expected capacity of 22GWh in 2023. That would result in a total of 146,000 F150 (roughly) in 2023. I'm under the impression that the batteries are the same for Mach-E as they will be for the F150 so that would be a production of *zero* mach-E.

How are any of the other manufacturers going to be able to produce volumes in any reasonable amount of time??!? At this point, the Gigafactory is quite literally years ahead of its time.

 

[HaulingAss]

I think Tesla is a fantastic company...and they currently make some great models. But, Rivian, Ford, and GM are going to fight hard for a piece of the EV Truck market. And right now it is looking like the Cybertruck probably won't really ramp up until 2024. So there is a window of time were Rivian, Ford, etc can tap into consumers wanting an EV truck sooner than that.

Yes, Tesla will sell a ton of CTs...once they work out the final design hurdles and actually start making them. But I think Rivian will sell all they can make too.

Yes, you are just repeating what I've already said, that Rivian and Ford will sell every one they make. That's not the problem - The problem is how few they will make. Even after Ford doubled the planned production of the F-150 Lightning, it's still just a drop in the bucket. And Rivian will make even fewer.

Maybe by 2028 one or both will be producing decent numbers of EV light trucks but I'm not dumb enough to bet real money on it. Time will tell.

 

[HaulingAss]

That'

In 2019 when Elon announced the Cybertruck, he hinted December 2020 as the date for the start of production. Now it really looks like the average buyer will have to wait until 2024. (Assuming no more delays) 2024 is a long ways away.

That's incorrect. Cybertruck was revealed back in 2019 with a planned start of production end of 2021. It looks to me like they will be less than a year late.

Over 90% of EV's meant for US and EU markets are produced much later than originally announced. Tesla actually has an above average track record of being more on time when compared to EV's announced by competitors. But the media only sticks the "habitually late" tag onto Tesla and Elon Musk.

Ever wonder why that is?

 

[firsttruck]

---------------

In 2019 when Elon announced the Cybertruck, he hinted December 2020 as the date for the start of production. Now it really looks like the average buyer will have to wait until 2024. (Assuming no more delays) 2024 is a long ways away.

---------------

In Nov 2019, Elon did NOT hint at Dec 2020 for start of Cybertruck deliveries.

Elon said Late 2021.

So Elon's recent announcement of late 2022 is the first delay.

Couple months before Cybertruck even announced in Nov 2019, in Sept 2019, Ford did hint at 2021 but now says will not ship until middle 2022. So Ford is shipping later than planned but the media never complains about Ford F-150 EV being late and this is not first time Ford had a late model.

In fact on 2017, Ford promised 16 pure electrics by 2023.

Ford started work on F-150 EV started earlier than Tesla and Tesla had a lot more work to do than Ford.

Starting 2017, Ford F-150 Lightning
design new EV drive train to put in existing chassis (chassis is essentially existing F-150 Hybrid)
2021-2022 Extend F-150 Hybrid factory to support making F-150 Lightning.
install additional machinery

Starting 2019, Tesla Cybertruck
design EV drive train
design new chassis ( stainless steel body, front casting, structural battery pack, rear casting)
national search for factory location
get local government approval for factory
buy property
drain swamp
grade land
2021 Sept still in progress - dig & construct foundations
2021 Sept still in progress - construct buildings
2021 Sept still in progress - install machinery


Ford had years head start and Tesla had many more time consuming steps to execute since Tesla did not have a factory and Cybertruck design started from scratch and had never been done before.

 

[firsttruck]

-----------------------

That'

That's incorrect. Cybertruck was revealed back in 2019 with a planned start of production end of 2021. It looks to me like they will be less than a year late.

Over 90% of EV's meant for US and EU markets are produced much later than originally announced. Tesla actually has an above average track record of being more on time when compared to EV's announced by competitors. But the media only sticks the "habitually late" tag onto Tesla and Elon Musk.

Ever wonder why that is?

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Yup, media & analysts gives legacy auto OEMs a pass on their past promises.

Here are a few huge ones that you hear crickets about.

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1. Ford Promises from 2017. *** what is current progress??:

13 electrified cars in total, with seven coming by 2020.
*** It is mid 2021, where are these 7 electrified vehicles? ***

40 electrified vehicles in its global lineup by 2022. The company said 16 would be purely electric, and the rest would be plug-in hybrids.
*** based on what we see right now, looks like by end of 2022, Ford will be late on at least 12 full-electrics. ***

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2. GM Promises from 2017. *** what is current progress??:

Two new EVs will be introduced by end of 2019. *** At end of 2019 where were these 2 EVs by GM ***

20 all-electric vehicles by 2023.
*** based on what we see right now, looks like by end of 2022, GM will be late on at least 16 full-electrics. ***

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3. Volvo Promises from 2017. *** what is current progress??:

Five all-electric models slated to roll out from 2019 to 2021.
*** It is mid 2021, there are not 7 models. Might only be 1, XC40 Recharge ***

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2017 January 3
Ford to build a 300-mile electric SUV and hybrid Mustang
The automaker is launching 13 electrified cars in total, with seven coming by 2020.
By Steve Dent @stevetdent
https://www.engadget.com/2017-01-03-ford-to-build-a-300-mile-electric-suv-and-hybrid-mustang.html

.....
All told, the company will launch 13 electrified (hybrid or EV) vehicles, with seven coming in just the next five years. Along with a 300-mile-range SUV, a hybrid Mustang and a hybrid F-150 truck, Ford will also build a Transit Custom plug-in hybrid taxi and, interestingly, two electrified police cars. It'll invest $700 million and add 700 new jobs in its Flat Rock, Michigan, assembly plant, "to create a factory capable of producing high-tech and autonomous vehicles," the company said in the same press release.

.....
Despite over 400,000 orders for Tesla's Model 3, Ford's President and CEO Mark Fields recently complained about soft demand for EVs. However, the company is certainly aiming at its base by launching electric versions of its iconic Mustang, F-150 and cop cars.

Along with the new cars, Ford will build an "ultra-fast charging network projected to be significantly faster than the most powerful charging system deployed today," presumably meaning Tesla's Supercharger. The company will build out 400 sites in Europe in the near term with "access to thousands of high-powered charging points" by 2020. What's more, Ford said it's piloting wireless-charging tech in the US and Europe "that makes recharging as easy as pulling into a parking spot so drivers never forget to recharge."

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2017 October 2
Ford creates 'Team Edison' to speed up EV development
It'll even partner with other companies to make EVs happen.
By Jon Fingas @jonfingas
https://www.engadget.com/2017-10-02-ford-creates-team-to-accelerate-electric-car-development.html
.....
It's too soon to say whether or not Team Edison will help, but Ford has already been putting its money where its mouth is: it's expanding its EV lineup, and previously earmarked $4.5 billion in related spending over the next 5 years. The big challenge is keeping pace with its rivals. GM, for instance, just announced that it'll have 20 electric car models by 2023. Ford's new group may have to pull out all the stops if it wants to be seen as EV-first.

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2018 January 14
*** Ford said this almost two years before Tesla Cybertruck 2019 Nov announcement ***
Ford plans $11 billion investment, 40 electrified vehicles by 2022
By Nick Carey, Joseph White
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...40-electrified-vehicles-by-2022-idUSKBN1F30YZ

.....
Ford Motor Co will significantly increase its planned investments in electric vehicles to $11 billion by 2022 and have 40 hybrid and fully electric vehicles in its model lineup, Chairman Bill Ford said on Sunday at the Detroit auto show.

.....
Of the 40 electrified vehicles Ford plans for its global lineup by 2022, 16 will be fully electric and the rest will be plug-in hybrids, executives said.

“We’re all in on this and we’re taking our mainstream vehicles, our most iconic vehicles, and we’re electrifying them,” Ford told reporters. “If we want to be successful with electrification, we have to do it with vehicles that are already popular.”

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2017 October 2
GM will have 20 electric car models on the road by 2023
Two new EVs will be introduced in the next 18 months (2019).
By Roberto Baldwin @strngwys
https://www.engadget.com/2017-10-02-gm-20-electric-car-models-by-2023.html

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New Ford F-150 plug-in hybrid is reported to offer about 10 miles of EV range
Bradley Berman - Apr. 9th 2020
https://electrek.co/guides/ford-f-150/
.....
Two years ago (2018), Ford outlined its plans for 40 so-called electrified vehicles in its global lineup by 2022. The company said 16 would be purely electric, and the rest would be plug-in hybrids – with a focus on its most iconic, mainstream vehicles.

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2019 Jan 16
Ford confirms all-electric F-Series pickup truck coming
Ford might not be doomed after all. The American automaker has now finally announced that it is going to launch an all-electric version of its most important vehicle program: the F-Series pickup trucks.
Last year, Ford announced plans to “bring 16 battery-electric vehicles to market by 2022” – starting with an all-electric CUV with 300 miles of range.
By Fred Lambert
https://electrek.co/2019/01/16/ford-all-electric-f150-pickup-truck/

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2017 October 3
Automakers are pushing for electric cars sooner than you'd think.
Here's how every major automaker plans to go electric - All the promises in one place.
By Brett Williams
https://mashable.com/article/electric-car-development-plans-ford-gm
.....
GM said it plans to phase out gas-powered vehicles for an "all-electric future" but didn't give an exact date for an all-EV line. The effort starts, however, with plans for 20 all-electric vehicles by 2023.

Ford created the EV-dedicated "Team Edison" to focus on the development of all-electric cars. The automaker also pledged to invest $4.5 billion over five years on new all-electric and hybrid vehicles, with 13 new models slated for release by 2023.

Toyota and Mazda recently announced that they're teaming up with auto-parts manufacturer Senso to create a new company to develop basic EV technology for use across multiple vehicle types and models, expanding beyond Toyota's Prius line. The two Japanese carmakers also pledged to build a $1.6 billion U.S.-based plant by 2021, where they'll work on electric and hybrid vehicles.

Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes-Benz, will invest $1 billion in an Alabama plant to produce all-electric SUVs and build a battery facility, and $10 billion in EV development overall. Mercedes-Benz outlined a plan to electrify its "entire portfolio" by 2022, offering 50 electric and hybrid models.

The Renault, Nissan, and Mitsubishi alliance will work together to develop new systems to use across their vehicle lines, with a focus on "purely electric" EVs like the Nissan Leaf. The automakers plan to release 12 all-electric models by 2022.

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) plans to electrify its entire vehicle lineup by 2020, with new powertrains ranging from mild hybrid vehicles to all-electric systems.

Volvo will electrify its entire vehicle line by 2019, with five all-electric models slated to roll out from 2019 to 2021. The automaker hopes to sell one million of the electric and hybrid cars by 2025.

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Ford Motor Co.'s premium Lincoln brand to electrify all models by 2022, report says
7 sep. 2017
https://www.autonews.com/article/20...n-to-electrify-all-models-by-2022-report-says

Lincoln plans electrified versions of all models by 2022, say sources
Reuters
Sep 7th 2017
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/07/fords-lincoln-brand-plans-electrified-versions-of-all-models-by/

Lincoln reportedly plans to electrify entire lineup by 2022
By Darrell Etherington @etherington
September 7, 2017
https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/07/lincoln-reportedly-plans-to-electrify-entire-lineup-by-2022/

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The Shocking Truth About Ford's Electric F-150
Jan 28, 2019
Everyman Driver


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Electric Ford F-150 Could Be Here as Early as 2021
As Ford prepares to get the electric version of its top seller out on the streets, it's working on educating the public about EVs.
By Sebastian Blanco
Sep 7, 2019
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a28947992/electric-ford-f-150-2021-planned/
.....
The latest indicator comes from Ted Cannis, Ford's global director for electrification, who said in a recent interview with Automotive News Canada that the electric F-150 will follow the Mach E, a Mustang-inspired electric crossover that is going to be introduced in 2020. The electric truck is supposed to follow "as soon as a year later," which takes us to the 2021 date.

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Electric Ford F-150 pickup confirmed for Michigan assembly, likely for 2021
by Bengt Halvorson
December 18, 2019
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...nfirmed-for-michigan-assembly-likely-for-2021
....
Tuesday, Ford made good on that plan for its Michigan plants, confirming and detailing the role that they’ll have in delivering electric and hybrid versions of the F-150 pickup, autonomous vehicles, and other products.

Ford will add 2,700 new jobs over three years in Wayne, Michigan—to build trucks like the upcoming Bronco, but also as part of a new “modification center to support autonomous vehicles and other vehicles.” The first autonomous vehicles will be completed there starting in 2021.

The company will introduce both an all-new F-150 and an F-150 hybrid version in 2020, Ford said. “The fully electric Ford F-150 is coming soon after,”

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Ford's EV strategy takes shape in search for popularity and profit
Michael Martinez
September 03, 2019
https://canada.autonews.com/automakers/fords-ev-strategy-takes-shape-search-popularity-and-profit
.....
After years of heavy investment and one forgettable attempt, Ford Motor Co. has yet to deliver a serious battery-electric vehicle.

That will change in 2020 with the introduction of Ford's first long-range EV, a Mustang-inspired crossover expected to be called Mach E. That will be followed as soon as a year later by a full-electric F-150

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Ford F-150 EV Patent Reveals Single-, Dual-, Four-Motor Drivetrain Options
6 Dec 2019
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...ual-four-motor-drivetrain-options-139552.html
.....
General Motors plans to roll out its electric workhorse by the fall of 2021, but chances are that Ford will beat The Big G by a few months with the F-150 EV.

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Tesla’s Cybertruck Will Face These Five Electric Pickups in 2021
By David Undercoffler
Nov 25, 2019
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidu...truck-will-face-these-rivals/?sh=5eaac2fe7487


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[Ratso]

I'm disappointed to say the least. With the information at hand my Oct 30th 2022 estimate has turned into (at best guesstimate) summer to fall of 2024.

 

[HaulingAss]

In Nov 2019, Elon did NOT hint at Dec 2020 for start of Cybertruck deliveries.

Elon said Late 2021.

So Elon's recent announcement of late 2022 is the first delay.

Couple months before Cybertruck even announced in Nov 2019, in Sept 2019, Ford did hint at 2021 but now says will not ship until middle 2022. So Ford is shipping later than planned but the media never complains about Ford F-150 EV being late and this is not first time Ford had a late model.

In fact on 2017, Ford promised 16 pure electrics by 2023.

Ford started work on F-150 EV started earlier than Tesla and Tesla had a lot more work to do than Ford.

Starting 2017, Ford F-150 Lightning
design new EV drive train to put in existing chassis (chassis is essentially existing F-150 Hybrid)
2021-2022 Extend F-150 Hybrid factory to support making F-150 Lightning.
install additional machinery

Starting 2019, Tesla Cybertruck
design EV drive train
design new chassis ( stainless steel body, front casting, structural battery pack, rear casting)
national search for factory location
get local government approval for factory
buy property
drain swamp
grade land
2021 Sept still in progress - dig & construct foundations
2021 Sept still in progress - construct buildings
2021 Sept still in progress - install machinery


Ford had years head start and Tesla had many more time consuming steps to execute since Tesla did not have a factory and Cybertruck design started from scratch and had never been done before.

Don't forget that Ford first hyped the prototype all-electric F-150 at the 2008 SEMA auto show in Detroit. They have been delaying the electric F-150 for almost a decade and a half! And yet, Tesla is the one that's late? LOL!

Tesla had almost no money and no resources in 2008, they got to where they are today by learning how to build EV's and sell them at a profit all the while Ford sat on their hands doing almost absolutely nothing!

 

[Ogre]

I'm disappointed to say the least. With the information at hand my Oct 30th 2022 estimate has turned into (at best guesstimate) summer to fall of 2024.

How does an 8-12 month delay by Tesla turn into a 2 year delay for you?

 

[HaulingAss]

I'm disappointed to say the least. With the information at hand my Oct 30th 2022 estimate has turned into (at best guesstimate) summer to fall of 2024.

Are you talking about the Rivian or the Ford?

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