Unpopular opinion: I don't think your "reservation" spot matters

[nitrohuck]

A lot of folks are very excited to talk about where they see themselves in the pecking order for reservations.

I'll be honest, I don't think it matters. We all know that the number of reservations is vastly overstated, that there will be a massive portion of folks who will not follow through or "reserved" multiple trims at launch day, etc. We don't know the true conversion rate, but I think we can all agree it will be significantly lower than the number of folks who put down a measly $100 to reserve a slot.

My (entirely baseless) prediction: When the CT becomes available, Tesla will send out an email to all the $100 reservation holders to spec out their build, and place a down payment on their order of a few thousand dollars. Only then will a true pecking order be defined.

Maybe they batch it out, and the first 25k or 50k to respond will trigger a lock out until production catches back up and another batch of pre-order emails go out.

When I hear about the "millions" of reservations for the CT, I'm just not that worried. I think a lot of people will get cold feet if Tesla sends and email saying "reply within 48hrs and pay a 7k down payment" . Those of us with cash on hand at a moments notice could see ourselves very close to the front of the list regardless of when we placed our $100 reservation.

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[ninja6r]

It will matter. Not in the way that they'll go in absolute order, but someone reserving now, won't be invited to configure in the first year. The only way that happens is if they completely fuck up the price and put it out of reach for 90% of the population. What I'm more interested in is what they do with those who placed more than one reservation. When the ordering comes up, do they tell them one at a time and refund the others?

Gun to my head, I say they batch all orders together on a roughly 6-12 month basis. If you have multiple reservations, they refund you and only let you purchase one until they've blown through everyone waiting behind them. At least that's what I would do. You don't want to piss off your customers, especially those who've waited years for this thing.

 

[Eye of Elon]

Once details of the frunk size get out, Tesla will only be able to sell a couple of hundred cybertucks total.

 

[TyPope]

Once details of the frunk size get out, Tesla will only be able to sell a couple of hundred cybertucks total.

Well, at least that is still more than GM is selling Hummers.

 

[nitrohuck]

Once details of the frunk size get out, Tesla will only be able to sell a couple of hundred cybertucks total.

That's great news for me then. I never use the frunk on my Model Y. I'll happily be one of the couple hundred

 

[HaulingAss]

Those of us with cash on hand at a moments notice could see ourselves very close to the front of the list regardless of when we placed our $100 reservation.

Dream on. Some people are predisposed to believe only what they want to believe.

Other people are more grounded in reality and thus base it upon the known facts:

1) Tesla set up the reservation system under the premise that earlier reservations would have precedence over later ones.

2) Every other Tesla model had reservations and those with earlier reservations had priority over later reservations. To think Tesla would suddenly ignore when the reservation was placed is illogical in the extreme.

What is true is that the reservation number is not absolute. Tesla will not hold up on delivering to later reservation holders if the earlier holder wants a configuration that is not in production yet.

 

[Mini2nut]

I heard a rumor that after employees and suppliers get their Cybertruck's that reservation holders who purchased a Tesla in the past will get first dibs since demand is off the charts. A Tesla loyalty program so to speak.

 

[nitrohuck]

Dream on. Some people are predisposed to believe only what they want to believe.

Other people are more grounded in reality and thus base it upon the known facts:

1) Tesla set up the reservation system under the premise that earlier reservations would have precedence over later ones.

2) Every other Tesla model had reservations and those with earlier reservations had priority over later reservations. To think Tesla would suddenly ignore when the reservation was placed is illogical in the extreme.

What is true is that the reservation number is not absolute. Tesla will not hold up on delivering to later reservation holders if the earlier holder wants a configuration that is not in production yet.

So I'm actually a relatively early reservation holder, this isn't just wishful thinking from someone who ordered a week ago.

I still predict that if they batch out emails in some sort of chronological order, that a very large percentage will not have cash on hand to pony up. How long would Tesla hold out for a $100 res holder before giving the slots to the next batch? No one knows, but having cash on hand will be the make or break for a lot of folks. That is my prediction at least.

 

[HaulingAss]

We all know that the number of reservations is vastly overstated, that there will be a massive portion of folks who will not follow through or "reserved" multiple trims at launch day, etc. We don't know the true conversion rate, but I think we can all agree it will be significantly lower than the number of folks who put down a measly $100 to reserve a slot.

The number of reservations is NOT overstated, not even a little bit. In fact, Tesla has not provided a public update on the number of reservations in a very long time so, obviously, the number of reservations is vastly understated. It's not Tesla's job to try to appraise us of how many reservations they think will not be converted to purchases.

One thing that's clear to me, is once the Cybertruck starts hitting the streets, it will be no different than any of the other Tesla models, brand new orders will out-number the reservations cancelled. This means the number of pre-orders is only a small fraction of all the Cybertrucks Tesla will sell and the waiting list will extend beyond the original reservations as new orders continue to come in. Most new vehicle buyers will not place reservations for a vehicle that is not available in a reasonable timeframe or for a vehicle still in a prototype stage of development.

 

[CyberC]

I heard a rumor that after employees and suppliers get their Cybertruck's that reservation holders who purchased a Tesla in the past will get first dibs since demand is off the charts. A Tesla loyalty program so to speak.

That'd be nice if true. As a day one reservation holder living in Texas who's driven Teslas since 2015...that should almost get me a delivery event invitation!

 

[cvalue13]

configure in the first year. The only way that happens is if they completely fuck up the price and put it out of reach for 90% of the population.

that’s not the only way it happens

it can also happen if, like in the past, after just a few months Tesla just ignores reservations and opens up orders to anyone with an internet connection

they’ve done that in the past, even when reservations were real money down

 

[HaulingAss]

I still predict that if they batch out emails in some sort of chronological order, that a very large percentage will not have cash on hand to pony up. How long would Tesla hold out for a $100 res holder before giving the slots to the next batch? No one knows, but having cash on hand will be the make or break for a lot of folks. That is my prediction at least.

It's a given that Tesla will not stop delivering to people lower on the list simply because someone higher on the list can't complete the purchase.

You fail to acknowledge two things:

1) The number of reservations is not under-stated.
2) Everyone knows not all reservations convert to sales.

That said, it is fair to debate the conversion rate, and I think it will be a lot lower than whatever assumptions are built into the reservation tracker on this site. My main point of contention was the way you stated that Tesla has overstated the number of pre-orders. The number of pre-orders is whatever it is, it's not overstated. It's a lot higher than what Tesla has disclosed to date.

 

[nitrohuck]

The number of reservations is NOT overstated, not even a little bit. In fact, Tesla has not provided a public update on the number of reservations in a very long time so, obviously, the number of reservations is vastly understated. It's not Tesla's job to try to appraise us of how many reservations they think will not be converted to purchases.

One thing that's clear to me, is once the Cybertruck starts hitting the streets, it will be no different than any of the other Tesla models, brand new orders will out-number the reservations cancelled. This means the number of pre-orders is only a small fraction of all the Cybertrucks Tesla will sell and the waiting list will extend beyond the original reservations as new orders continue to come in. Most new vehicle buyers will not place reservations for a vehicle that is not available in a reasonable timeframe or for a vehicle still in a prototype stage of development.

I'm not referring to what Tesla has said, I'm referring to the predictions we all have been going off of such as the reservation tracker, for example. My prediction is the conversion rate for existing res holders will be much less than the total existing number.

Obviously over time there will be many more people buying CTs. However what you just said regarding new orders being placed once the CT is on the streets doesn't mean anything in this context because (as you stated) folks already holding a $100 res will be prioritized first.

The more cancelled reservations, the faster serious buyers get to the front of the line, and I think it may happen faster than many people think it will. After that, the new (post release) reservations/orders flow in and those folks will hop into line.

 

[mprimo]

Agreed, but maybe 1.5 to 3k down. There are people with 10+ reservations. I doubt Tesla is going to wait around until they make up their minds about buying 1, 7, all 10 or none. I believe once the build is received with payment, the reservations will shuffle for each batch. That way, fidgety day one holders still have a chance to get in an early batch vs the newly converts. My $.02 at least.

 

[Gurule92]

Once details of the frunk size get out, Tesla will only be able to sell a couple of hundred cybertucks total.

Because it goes against originally stated frunk size? You really think it was top of the reserver's list like that? Lol

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