Unpopular opinion: I don't think your "reservation" spot matters

[Madmarkmedicineman]

The frunk. Quite possibly the most unimportant feature on this entire vehicle. The fixation on this is bizarre.

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[WormtownKris]

My reservation is ~3300, and that reservation is now locked for editing by Tesla. I have a second reservation at ~110,000 and that one can still be edited. And as for the people who bail on their reservations, within the first 50,000, I would bet that more than 35,000 follow through.

I love reading that your second reservation can still be edited. I am around 18,000, and mine also cannot be edited. I had assumed that was across the board, but exciting that they could be starting to pre-queue the cyberfans!!

 

[SSonnentag]

I love reading that your second reservation can still be edited. I am around 18,000, and mine also cannot be edited. I had assumed that was across the board, but exciting that they could be starting to pre-queue the cyberfans!!

I'm in the 50K range and also cannot edit.

Is this a recent development? I've not tried editing previously.

 

[Trbizwiz]

Dream on. Some people are predisposed to believe only what they want to believe.

Other people are more grounded in reality and thus base it upon the known facts:

1) Tesla set up the reservation system under the premise that earlier reservations would have precedence over later ones.

2) Every other Tesla model had reservations and those with earlier reservations had priority over later reservations. To think Tesla would suddenly ignore when the reservation was placed is illogical in the extreme.

What is true is that the reservation number is not absolute. Tesla will not hold up on delivering to later reservation holders if the earlier holder wants a configuration that is not in production yet.

Tesla was not delivering Model Y in order of reservation back in 2021 when they had a 6 to 8 month back order. I ordered a performance and got it in a month. People with long range waited nearly a year. Not fair, but it is what is is. Pay a little more, get a little more.

 

[FutureBoy]

That's great news for me then. I never use the frunk on my Model Y. I'll happily be one of the couple hundred

Rent out your frunk to others for cash? Or maybe AirB&B the frunk.

 

[Solarrrs]

A lot of folks are very excited to talk about where they see themselves in the pecking order for reservations.

I'll be honest, I don't think it matters. We all know that the number of reservations is vastly overstated, that there will be a massive portion of folks who will not follow through or "reserved" multiple trims at launch day, etc. We don't know the true conversion rate, but I think we can all agree it will be significantly lower than the number of folks who put down a measly $100 to reserve a slot.

My (entirely baseless) prediction: When the CT becomes available, Tesla will send out an email to all the $100 reservation holders to spec out their build, and place a down payment on their order of a few thousand dollars. Only then will a true pecking order be defined.

Maybe they batch it out, and the first 25k or 50k to respond will trigger a lock out until production catches back up and another batch of pre-order emails go out.

When I hear about the "millions" of reservations for the CT, I'm just not that worried. I think a lot of people will get cold feet if Tesla sends and email saying "reply within 48hrs and pay a 7k down payment" . Those of us with cash on hand at a moments notice could see ourselves very close to the front of the list regardless of when we placed our $100 reservation.

I highly disagree, but respect your opinion

 

[Diehard]

My reservation is ~3300, and that reservation is now locked for editing by Tesla. I have a second reservation at ~110,000 and that one can still be edited. And as for the people who bail on their reservations, within the first 50,000, I would bet that more than 35,000 follow through.

That is strange. I am around 700K spot and can not edit. I thought no one can until their configuration tools are ready with the actual trims. My reservation is CT2. What is your 1st and 2nd reservation?

 

[jedfoley]

That is strange. I am around 700K spot and can not edit. I thought no one can until their configuration tools are ready with the actual trims. My reservation is CT2. What is your 1st and 2nd reservation?

RN112747433 and RN113801493. I can no longer edit either design. Last weekend, I could edit the later one but not the first one.

 

[Crissa]

I'm in the 50K range and also cannot edit.

Is this a recent development? I've not tried editing previously.

Also in the 50k range. I've never been able to edit, but there did used to be a refund button.

Tesla was not delivering Model Y in order of reservation back in 2021 when they had a 6 to 8 month back order. I ordered a performance and got it in a month. People with long range waited nearly a year. Not fair, but it is what is is. Pay a little more, get a little more.

Even if they're doing it fairly, they make the cars in batches. So if they make 10k of one and 10k of another, well, it's just going to get to the end of one line faster. Even if they made 50k of one and 10k of another when they have 100k orders for one and 15k orders for the other.

-Crissa

 

[Arctic_White]

I heard a rumor that after employees and suppliers get their Cybertruck's that reservation holders who purchased a Tesla in the past will get first dibs since demand is off the charts. A Tesla loyalty program so to speak.

So I've had 4 Teslas in the past. Does that mean I'll get more priority than someone who only has purchased one?

Come on!

If you are indeed right, maybe they make it such that current Tesla holders/owners get priority, though I really doubt it.

 

[Arctic_White]

The number of reservations is NOT overstated, not even a little bit. In fact, Tesla has not provided a public update on the number of reservations in a very long time so, obviously, the number of reservations is vastly understated. It's not Tesla's job to try to appraise us of how many reservations they think will not be converted to purchases.

One thing that's clear to me, is once the Cybertruck starts hitting the streets, it will be no different than any of the other Tesla models, brand new orders will out-number the reservations cancelled. This means the number of pre-orders is only a small fraction of all the Cybertrucks Tesla will sell and the waiting list will extend beyond the original reservations as new orders continue to come in. Most new vehicle buyers will not place reservations for a vehicle that is not available in a reasonable timeframe or for a vehicle still in a prototype stage of development.

+1

Further, Elon did say in the earnings call that the demand for the Cybertruck is so far off the hook that they can't even see the hook anymore.

The excel spreadsheet says 1.9M+ reservations. Even if half of them cancel, that is still over 950K in reservations. That will take about 4 to 5 years of production to get rid of the backlog, not to mention the new reservations that will happen once people see how awesome the truck actually is.

 

[Arctic_White]

this just isn’t true

People had down real deposits, $1,000, for Model 3, and within a few months of release - before hardly any were delivered, Tesla abandoned the reservations and opened orders to anyone willing to put down a $2,500 deposit.

Day 1 reservation holders who had stood in line for 12 hours to make $1,000 deposits, took delivery AFTER people who ordered online months later.

This isn’t said to suggest they’ll do the same with CTs. But it is to level-set the mythology that these $100 ‘deposits’ will be ‘honored’ in the long run because Tesla is a chill dude

But did Tesla increase the price? If so, it'd make sense to try to sell to those who didn't reserve but are willing to pay more.

Secondly, Tesla is not the same company now as they were in 2018 when the Model 3 was launched. They are more mature, have ample cash on hand, and know what they did wrong.

I'd be seriously surprised if Tesla ended up screwing over early reservations unless they increase the CT prices.

 

[rudedawg78]

RN112747433 and RN113801493. I can no longer edit either design. Last weekend, I could edit the later one but not the first one.

You could edit one of your reservations last weekend? That's surprising because I thought it locked quite a long time ago for editing. You were only able to cancel.

What were you able to edit last weekend? Heck, the trims don't even seem to be 100% confirmed yet (e.g., possible quad motor addition, possible deletion of single motor, etc.)

 

[cvalue13]

I'd be seriously surprised if Tesla ended up screwing over early reservations unless they increase the CT prices.

I suppose it depends on what is meant by “early” reservation holders.

And while Tesla may have “matured” since then, there’s a large swing between $100 ‘reservations’ made online 4 years ago, and $1000 reservations made in person 2 years prior.

Again, never to suggest that what Tesla did with Model 3 is definitive of what they may do with CT. Only instead to point out that it seems a mythology when people suggest Tesla’s either contractually or morally bound to follow the reservation system, and that history proves *that*.
.

 

[Haopec]

The frunk. Quite possibly the most unimportant feature on this entire vehicle. The fixation on this is bizarre.

What is the most important feature, to you? SS? The look in general? To me, my use of a powered decently sized frunk on the R1T is one of the most "functional" options I utilize pretty regularly. Easy access, lockable, keeps things organized for small tools/cable chargers, tie-down straps, etc.
The jury is still out on just how useful/functional the frunk will be, but so far it looks like it's collateral damage due to the "form" of the CT, which would be unfortunate because the form is supposed to follow function for the CT. We will see in a month or so. I'm hoping it's close to the same size as the R1T.

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