Unpopular opinion: I don't think your "reservation" spot matters

[Alpine]

I'm hoping I'll get a phone call one day in about a month's time or so and it will be Elon on the other side of the phone saying he would like to deliver the first cyber truck to me in person.

Where will this romcom go from there?

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[CLAIRE]

"Girls just wanna have fun!"

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

My thoughts

There may be a token reservation holder with meaning from a location (Texas, etc) with a story. Most will be important people. Like Bonnie, and other long time Tesla owners, maybe a few locals, and a governor. Maybe 50 handovers. Would think more than the 3 launch. Just for comparison.

Would one really want an RC?

I wouldn’t, but the thread was about reservation numbers being BS. I do wonder when ‘real’ deliveries (people with reservations but not friends, celebs, influencers, workers, or neighbors) will begin, and real production (not hand made).

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I never said anything about them following the queue exactly. We have been talking about this for years. We all know the major filters, but if they are sending 20 CTs to Los Angeles I would expect them to offer them to reservation holders in some group first and from there if there are any left over. Since the reservations are from all over it is highly unlikely that they would get fulfilled in strict order. That is a far cry from saying that the reservation numbers are total BS.

Why bother reserving at all if you don’t believe that you can count on getting a truck in some relative timeframe?

 

[cvalue13]

let’s assume there are 2M pre-orders (we don’t *know* that, from Tesla, only from rough extrapolations from fan-collected reservation data).

That 2M includes international orders, which are irrelevant. Let’s conservatively call that 25% of 2M

That leaves 1.5M domestic/NA pre-orders

Let’s conservatively say that 10% no longer *want* any CT (for whatever reason), another 10% don’t want any of the CT configurations ultimately offered, and another 10% can no longer afford a CT (for whatever reason)

That leaves 1M pre-orders outstanding and *live*

Assuming aggressively a 250K production total in 2024, and a 500K production total in 2025 and 2026, that puts all pre-orders through as soon as mid 2025.

So using your estimate, there’s a spread in conservative to optimistic of 18mo to 5 years to complete pre-orders.

Goes to show, to me, that how Tesla treats the order of reservations over time is probably going to be dictated in significant part by what the production numbers look like.

At some point, I’d expect Tesla to reject the notion entirely that for 5 years they won’t/can’t sell CTs to anyone that hadn’t “pre-ordered”

 

[ecotrials]

What is the most important feature, to you? SS? The look in general? To me, my use of a powered decently sized frunk on the R1T is one of the most "functional" options I utilize pretty regularly. Easy access, lockable, keeps things organized for small tools/cable chargers, tie-down straps, etc.
The jury is still out on just how useful/functional the frunk will be, but so far it looks like it's collateral damage due to the "form" of the CT, which would be unfortunate because the form is supposed to follow function for the CT. We will see in a month or so. I'm hoping it's close to the same size as the R1T.

Form is supposed to follow function. The overall look of the CT screams function. Aerodynamics!
If the frunk is a bit smaller, I believe it is because of the hue and cry of "It won't fit in my garage".
So they shortened it a bit. Would you honestly trade range for a bigger frunk? If so, there are trucks now available and more coming that will have big frunks with less range (unless they maintain range with gigantic batteries). Which "function" are they shooting for?

 

[CYBRSMTH]

A lot of folks are very excited to talk about where they see themselves in the pecking order for reservations.

I'll be honest, I don't think it matters. We all know that the number of reservations is vastly overstated, that there will be a massive portion of folks who will not follow through or "reserved" multiple trims at launch day, etc. We don't know the true conversion rate, but I think we can all agree it will be significantly lower than the number of folks who put down a measly $100 to reserve a slot.

My (entirely baseless) prediction: When the CT becomes available, Tesla will send out an email to all the $100 reservation holders to spec out their build, and place a down payment on their order of a few thousand dollars. Only then will a true pecking order be defined.

Maybe they batch it out, and the first 25k or 50k to respond will trigger a lock out until production catches back up and another batch of pre-order emails go out.

When I hear about the "millions" of reservations for the CT, I'm just not that worried. I think a lot of people will get cold feet if Tesla sends and email saying "reply within 48hrs and pay a 7k down payment" . Those of us with cash on hand at a moments notice could see ourselves very close to the front of the list regardless of when we placed our $100 reservation.

I think this happened before with Tesla preorders. I can’t remember which model, maybe 3. Some people were able to find Model 3s in the wild at various dealerships and received them before people who were on the reservation list.

 

[CYBRSMTH]

By dealerships I meant non-Tesla dealerships as Tesla has showrooms and only sells online. I watch A LOT of EV YouTube videos and I swear one of the hosts said they got a Model 3 before many reservation holders. But like you said it might have been because someone else was waiting on a particular trim.

 

[dalton108]

that’s not the only way it happens

it can also happen if, like in the past, after just a few months Tesla just ignores reservations and opens up orders to anyone with an internet connection

they’ve done that in the past, even when reservations were real money down

Correct.

Plus, far too many people seem to have missed the fact that Elon expressly said that for this vehicle they’re doing the low-end model first and the high-end 500+ mile tri-motor (or quad motor if that comes to pass) at the end. Reversing the order of all prior launches.

AND what I’ve seen nobody discuss is that for those of us who want maximum range and motors —- there was no such thing as a quad-motor (which he announced a while back and now may have backed away from) when we pre-ordered; therefore, it remains an open question as to whether - if I reconfigure to get that model (i.e. modify my contract/enter into a new one), I lose my $7000 FSD because technically, it would be a new order and they would no longer be bound by the agreement for me to purchase a tri-motor ct w/ FSD for $7000.

Before somebody goes popping off about how you’re already guaranteed that price, I can tell you from direct experience (and as a matter of law) that is not the case.

The exact same thing happened when my wife ordered her model Y and they reduced the price right before we took delivery of the car just after launch (we have a very early production model Y -so this is a one to one analogy the model Y was a brand new car for Tesla that we ordered prior to production same as the situation we’re in with the cybertruck).

We ordered the mY in 2019 when FSD was $7000. After the price cut, the cost of the model Y went down by $1000. But in order to get that price, we had to enter into a new purchase agreement which required us to re-order FSD which at that time had gone up to $8000 which happened in July 2020, the same month we took delivery. So, instead of paying $2000 less than MSRP at the time we only ended up getting a $1000 discount as we were required to buy FSD at the then current price.

While I was not too happy, I can tell you as a lawyer this is perfectly legal and correct from a standpoint of contract law. We could’ve kept the deal that we had which would’ve meant getting FSD For $7000 but paying $1000 more for the car then the current going rate, or do what we did which was paid $8000 and take the discount. Ultimately, it was a wash because we paid $1000 less overall than what we were planning but given the fact that the price of the car went down by $1000 and for us we should’ve been getting $1000 discount off of the current price of FSD, our car should’ve been basically worth $2000 more than we paid for it on the date of purchase.

If THAT precedent is followed, anybody who ordered a tri-motor CT and now wants a quad-motor (if that configuration is available at launch) is going to pay $15,000 for FSD. We shall see what happens.

But past is prologue and Tesla has never been too good about honoring all of their agreements.

 

[dalton108]

This is only half correct. Elon 100% jumped influencers and others ahead of early reservation holders in almost every prior launch. This happened with the plaid and the model three performance of which I am personally very keenly aware because I got a very early refreshed model three performance and everybody was paying close attention to this.

So, you can fully expect an unfair distribution of the vehicles when they first come out because that’s what he’s done in the past.

yes date of order matters, yes there will be batching based on configuration, yes the folks closest to the factory will get their vehicles first (for a while), and absolutely, yes, there will be favoritism and hero worship.

 

[rudedawg78]

Plus, far too many people seem to have missed the fact that Elon expressly said that for this vehicle they’re doing the low-end model first and the high-end 500+ mile tri-motor (or quad motor if that comes to pass) at the end.

I think you are mistaken here. I don't remember Elon saying they are starting with low-end first. In FACT, he tweeted they will produce the quad motor first. Whether the quad motor actual comes to existence is another topic.

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