📊 Cybertruck SUBMITTED ORDERS Tracking List & Stats [Add Yours!]

[Technupe]

I submitted the order submission form yesterday!

Reserved on 11/21/19
Owned 4 teslas total, currently only 2
Boston, MA

Order Confirmed for AWD FS (original reserved tri-motor)

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[chazman]

@chazman Chuck Cook
Placed by Foundation AWD order on Jan 9th in Wave 8. Order still said delivery Jan-Mar 2024. Didn't order extender either.

 

[Sjohnson20]

Mostly reported Jan 09, 2024 invites starting 1281…. Or higher , this means 75000 reservation have been went through. Each day estimating 50000 to 60000 starting 11/21/2019.
It is faster than expected

There's still some people from the first day that haven't gotten the offer though so they may have skipped some. Also, you have all the international orders that are being skipped. And the crazy people who reserved 10 of them lol

 

[Fleetwood75]

Mostly reported Jan 09, 2024 invites starting 1281…. Or higher , this means 75000 reservation have been went through. Each day estimating 50000 to 60000 starting 11/21/2019.
It is faster than expected

Last I checked there were a lot of people in the 1127xxxxx group who still haven't gotten an invite. So I don't think that they've sent out anywhere near 75,000 invitation e-mails

 

[Nabilriaz69]

Last I checked there were a lot of people in the 1127xxxxx group who still haven't gotten an invite. So I don't think that they've sent out anywhere near 75,000 invitation e-mails

yes mystry, there will some cancellations , international orders , and algorithm of Tesla

 

[Fleetwood75]

yes mystry, there will some cancellations , international orders , and algorithm of Tesla

I kind of want to do this. Get hired at Tesla, send myself a Foundation Series invite, and then quit
?

 

[SSESTOELEMENTO]

Joined the club and added mine. Can't find it on the list yet

 

[Fleetwood75]

Now that we're at about 800 documented orders I have updated my chart, see below:

For the earliest reservations (11274 - 11278) we're seeing an average of 113 orders per RN block. Each RN block represents 10,000 reservations nearly all of which would be for Cybertrucks in that tranche. So this means that about 1.1% of those early reservations have been offered a Foundation Series, accepted the offer, and then added their info the tracker on this forum.

 

[alsetkcurt]

Just added mine. Hour 1 reservation during the unveiling. Within the hour of getting an email for the Foundation Series AWD, I ordered on 12/8/2023. Waiting now patiently in SoCal. On our 2nd Model X.

 

[Gracilis]

Just added my order to the list. Now the wait for a VIN begins!

 

[GAmstutz]

Posted my purchase info today

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Now that we're at about 800 documented orders I have updated my chart, see below:

For the earliest reservations (11274 - 11278) we're seeing an average of 113 orders per RN block. Each RN block represents 10,000 reservations nearly all of which would be for Cybertrucks in that tranche. So this means that about 1.1% of those early reservations have been offered a Foundation Series, accepted the offer, and then added their info the tracker on this forum.

What is with the 76/77 neglect. Feel for them.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Joined the club and added mine. Can't find it on the list yet

Go to page 1 on this thread and let the page load

 

[MarkW]

Just added mine, dual motor foundation Series, Savannah GA

 

[jookyone]

Now that we're at about 800 documented orders I have updated my chart, see below:

For the earliest reservations (11274 - 11278) we're seeing an average of 113 orders per RN block. Each RN block represents 10,000 reservations nearly all of which would be for Cybertrucks in that tranche. So this means that about 1.1% of those early reservations have been offered a Foundation Series, accepted the offer, and then added their info the tracker on this forum.

I'm pretty sure this isn't accurate. Since November of 2019, Tesla has sold approximately 4 million Teslas globally (only 5 million in the history of the company). The commonly accepted starting point for CT RNs is RN112744100, and I just took delivery of a Model X end of November (nearly exactly 4 years) that is 7.5 million RNs from that point. If the pure calculation was true, that would mean Tesla is having, on average, nearly every other reservation cancelled across all models globally. With most of their cars actually more attainable, affordable, and established, I couldn't possibly believe that a vaporware truck for 3.5 years (kudos for keeping it under wraps for so long) didn't result in far more than half cancellations over 4 years accepting that a large part of those first few days were indeed Cybertrucks. That crowd sourced data table tracking Cybertrucks and early reservations against adjusted estimates based on other models ordered, estimated around 90% of orders in the first 9 days (around 300k estimated orders) were CTs. At best, I would put a realistic number of reservations remaining per tranche at 2000. Estimated FSD take rate is around 75-80% and 90% of orders were alleged to be dual or tri-motor so the most likely to buy pool would be around 1200 - 1500 tops. I think the data shows this with post Nov 30th with a market predicted take rate between 2-20% with the prices and features, which pretty much lines up with your chart... we have about 800 orders across approx 8 tranches (120-150 x 8).

To summarize:
- After 4 years there were likely 1200-1500 remaining reservations for Cybertrucks per tranch.
- I split the difference between market analysis of 2-20% and of that pool there is approx 8-10% take rate
- Obviously biased towards community sourced data from this forum and elsewhere
- Nobody really knows, but it ain't 80k reservations (or 60k I saw elsewhere) that have been "gone thru"

Very loose heuristic math, but numbers don't lie (but with a lack of data, can stretch the truth).

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