📊 Cybertruck SUBMITTED ORDERS Tracking List & Stats [Add Yours!]

[Fleetwood75]

I'm pretty sure this isn't accurate. Since November of 2019, Tesla has sold approximately 4 million Teslas globally (only 5 million in the history of the company). The commonly accepted starting point for CT RNs is RN112744100, and I just took delivery of a Model X end of November (nearly exactly 4 years) that is 7.5 million RNs from that point. If the pure calculation was true, that would mean Tesla is having, on average, nearly every other reservation cancelled across all models globally. With most of their cars actually more attainable, affordable, and established, I couldn't possibly believe that a vaporware truck for 3.5 years (kudos for keeping it under wraps for so long) didn't result in far more than half cancellations over 4 years accepting that a large part of those first few days were indeed Cybertrucks. That crowd sourced data table tracking Cybertrucks and early reservations against adjusted estimates based on other models ordered, estimated around 90% of orders in the first 9 days (around 300k estimated orders) were CTs. At best, I would put a realistic number of reservations remaining per tranche at 2000. Estimated FSD take rate is around 75-80% and 90% of orders were alleged to be dual or tri-motor so the most likely to buy pool would be around 1200 - 1500 tops. I think the data shows this with post Nov 30th with a market predicted take rate between 2-20% with the prices and features, which pretty much lines up with your chart... we have about 800 orders across approx 8 tranches (120-150 x 8).

To summarize:
- After 4 years there were likely 1200-1500 remaining reservations for Cybertrucks per tranch.
- I split the difference between market analysis of 2-20% and of that pool there is approx 8-10% take rate
- Obviously biased towards community sourced data from this forum and elsewhere
- Nobody really knows, but it ain't 80k reservations (or 60k I saw elsewhere) that have been "gone thru"

Very loose heuristic math, but numbers don't lie.

I believe I read somewhere that the RN’s apply to all Tesla purchases, not just vehicles. So if you buy a hat from their online store, that’s also an RN. But either way, I think it’s pretty much a guarantee that nearly all of the RN’s from 11274 - 11288 are for Cybertrucks because those 140,000 occurred in the 24 hours after the window opened, and how many people just happened to randomly be ordering a S/X/3/Y or a coffee mug or something in that one 24 hour period?

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[jookyone]

I believe I read somewhere that the RN’s apply to all Tesla purchases, not just vehicles. So if you buy a hat from their online store, that’s also an RN. But either way, I think it’s pretty much a guarantee that nearly all of the RN’s from 11274 - 11288 are for Cybertrucks because those 140,000 occurred in the 24 hours after the window opened, and how many people just happened to randomly be ordering a S/X/3/Y or a coffee mug or something in that one 24 hour period?

I agree, according to that large crowdsourced CT Line thingy, adjust "place in line" was about 10% off, implying 90% of things ordered in the first couple days were CTs. I just don't think they have gone thru as many reservation invitations as people might think. But it's all speculation. A thread with VIN numbers going out in the last couple hours just started so the race is on!

 

[Osprey22]

Submitted, on my order confirmation email it does not say anything about a potential delivery date.

 

[cybertruth]

Submitted to the order list.
In my invitation email, it said December 2023 - March 2024

 

[MetalBonsai]

When you organize the data by reservation number, then by state (just copy paste it into an excel doc or google spreadsheet), you can see that invitation emails are mostly going out in order. When observing the data by date email received only, the order feels a lot more chaotic.

I imagine main exceptions to the order would be celebrities, YouTubers, special cases. Also California and Texas feel a lot more like a scatter shot of order confirmations. But yeah, I was somewhat able to predict when my email was coming just based on the numbers in Washington had already received their emails and posted here.

 

[PAPAB]

OMG OMG OMG! Just swiped right and there is was on the Tesla App(we have a MYLR '22); got no email. My reservation was day 2; (11/22/19)less than 12 hrs after the reveal; RN112831XXX; Charlotte; Not a Telsa employee and not a big wig on X or YT Tesla personality; own the MYLR; Tesla Shares,Solar Panels and Powerwall. No referrals. Ordered AWD, and deposit on the extender(still thinking-bet will not be available until end of 2024); AWD Est delivery Jan-Mar 2024.

 

[jookyone]

Here is a graphic for that:

Other chart data graphed here:
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-options-rns-ordered-updated-1-10-2023.10988/

 

[bang21]

I believe I read somewhere that the RN’s apply to all Tesla purchases, not just vehicles. So if you buy a hat from their online store, that’s also an RN. But either way, I think it’s pretty much a guarantee that nearly all of the RN’s from 11274 - 11288 are for Cybertrucks because those 140,000 occurred in the 24 hours after the window opened, and how many people just happened to randomly be ordering a S/X/3/Y or a coffee mug or something in that one 24 hour period?

My Tesla store orders, including apparel and vehicle accessories, have an order number and are not the same format or length as the Reservation Number (RN).

 

[evnow]

Here is a graphic for that:

Other chart data graphed here:
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-options-rns-ordered-updated-1-10-2023.10988/

Looks like quite a few 1282* in the last few days. May be I'll get the invite sometime in March for my RN of 1289* ...

 

[MarkM913]

Looks like quite a few 1282* in the last few days. May be I'll get the invite sometime in March for my RN of 1289* ...

Looks like they're in the 11283's now!

getting close to a 100k RN's they've gone through (or skipped lol)

 

[cyberpeepsula]

Here is a graphic for that:

Other chart data graphed here:
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-options-rns-ordered-updated-1-10-2023.10988/

As a 11284XXX I am a little hurt! Seems we got skipped.

 

[jookyone]

With sample sizes of one for everything past 11282XXX I would guess all of those are mostly California reservations. Statistically anomalous.

 

[MetalBonsai]

As a 11284XXX I am a little hurt! Seems we got skipped.

At 11284, just seeing how the emails are trending, I bet you'll get your email either this week or next week. For sure this month.

 

[Steve-O]

Added my CT Order to list! Now in wait mode (12/28/23 order with Jan-Mar 2024 delivery).

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