📊 Cybertruck SUBMITTED ORDERS Tracking List & Stats [Add Yours!]

[Coolbreeze704]

For those that have been hanging here over the years I just noticed @Dids has received invite and placed his order. Hope he is doing well and happy to see he is close to getting his CT. Looks like he went AWD.

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[SteelRhino]

I'm one of those and Tesla advised delivery "in the second half of 2024". Tesla has only one CT production line and they are building AWD through March (my guess) with parts for CB arriving and then dual production ramping in the March to June range - again with first CB deliveries starting in early June.

I have never seen anywhere where Tesla has stated limits on either Foundation variant.

That is a bit weird. What's the point of calling it a Foundation Series if there is no limit to it. Are they just going to keep making them till customers are willing to pay? You never know what is being planned behind the curtains with Tesla.

 

[Fleetwood75]

That is a bit weird. What's the point of calling it a Foundation Series if there is no limit to it. Are they just going to keep making them till customers are willing to pay? You never know what is being planned behind the curtains with Tesla.

If there's a line around the block to pay Foundation Series prices for a Cybertruck then I see no reason for Tesla not to keep those invitations coming. In fact, I'll bet that they could raise the price of the Foundation Series another $10k and still have more demand than production capacity for 2024. At the end of the day Tesla is a business, and it makes sense as a business to charge as much money as your customers are willing to pay. There are evidently a lot of deep pocketed individuals who want one these trucks as soon as possible, myself included

 

[Noblelr3]

For those who have confirmed and paid the $1,000 in the last day or so, what are they saying for the estimated delivery for the AWD version? Early orders, including mine, said Jan-March 24. I’m curious if they have bumped that out?

I’m 11283 and got the invite 1/10. Still at Jan-Mar 24 Delivery

 

[mallenbrand]

added

 

[kcurtrebyc]

added

 

[cofree]

tl;dr: Tesla seems to be significantly further along the waitlist in some states than others. The cause may be a quota system per service center, or per capita in a state. It is correlated with all kinds of factors (such as who the state voted for in 2020) but these are likely not related to the cause of the disparity.

Ok, so I just did a bit of pivot-tabling on the data to check a potential correlation I had eyeballed...

Considering the recent orders on the spreadsheet (starting at order 501, the idea being after the CA/TX bias)...
Then I looked at RN versus state.

What I had eyeballed is that the right-leaning states had a bunch of 11283xxx reservations, while the left leaning states were still stuck in the 11280xxx and earlire.
Much as I'm sure it would make headlines if Elon was favoring republican reservation holders over democrat reservation holders... what I suspect this may represent is a quota per service center, or a quota per capita in each state. For example maybe each reservation holder is assigned a nearby service center, and each service center gets 1 cybertruck per day to offer to whoever is lowest RN that is assigned to that service center. This would mean that the areas where Tesla is more popular now (has recent service centers) than 4 years ago (at the cybertruck announcement) would be further through their waitlist. Distance from the factory might also be a cause (red states are closer to TX on average) but OH seems to be further through the waitlist than CO.
I didn't want to just look at the highest reservation numbers in each state, as the data seems a little noisey, some people move states in the last 4 years, and people with more than one reservation sometimes report the recent reservation being invited.

So as a quick proxy I looked at the table in this thread, reservations after the first 500...
In states with 5 or fewer reservations (MD, KS, AL, PA, NM, IN, CT, SC, OK, NM, MA, KY, AR, LA, DE, WY, VT, RI, NH, NE, MT, IA, HI) which accounts for 61 reservations (not huge but significant, although it does get small considering only 11283s)... 11.5% of the reservations were 11283xxx and 16.4% were 11282xxx.
Compare this with the states with more than 5 orders ... 2.4% of the reservations were 11283xxx and 8.7% were 11282xxx.

So if you have a 11283 reservation you are 5x as likely to get an invite if you are in a state with few orders, than if you are in a state with lots of orders [compared to the overall recent reservation numbers]. However once you take a set of 61 orders and take 11.5% the numbers are rather small... but the 11282 data also leans (2x likelihood) in the same direction with bigger numbers which suggests to me that there is actual information here, not just noise.
There was only one 11283/11282 order prior to the first 500 so it isn't like all the CA 11283s were invited earlier.

For 11282 orders GA, NC, OH lead with 4 orders each compared with 2 for CA. (GA, NC, OH have 8-11 recent orders each so they aren't even in the 5 or fewer club for the above stats, while CA has 74)

So for the original clickbait-headline question... yes the 11283xxx reservations are 5.4% of recent orders in red states and 2.9% of recent orders in blue states. (similar but not quite as strong stats for 11282xxx). There is likely some cause for the correlation that results in Tesla being further through the waitlist in some areas, but the correlations with politics (and likely also race if you go looking for the correlation) are almost certainly incidental.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Admin. I changed my order to non foundation. I guess in a sense I still have an invite and an order so this is interesting. Will need to at least change my entry to std awd rather then FS?

 

[Alan]

No new invites for 6 days. Is it over for the foundation series except for filling in for invites that don’t convert to orders soon.

 

[agordon117]

tl;dr: Tesla seems to be significantly further along the waitlist in some states than others. The cause may be a quota system per service center, or per capita in a state. It is correlated with all kinds of factors (such as who the state voted for in 2020) but these are likely not related to the cause of the disparity.

Ok, so I just did a bit of pivot-tabling on the data to check a potential correlation I had eyeballed...

Considering the recent orders on the spreadsheet (starting at order 501, the idea being after the CA/TX bias)...
Then I looked at RN versus state.

What I had eyeballed is that the right-leaning states had a bunch of 11283xxx reservations, while the left leaning states were still stuck in the 11280xxx and earlire.
Much as I'm sure it would make headlines if Elon was favoring republican reservation holders over democrat reservation holders... what I suspect this may represent is a quota per service center, or a quota per capita in each state. For example maybe each reservation holder is assigned a nearby service center, and each service center gets 1 cybertruck per day to offer to whoever is lowest RN that is assigned to that service center. This would mean that the areas where Tesla is more popular now (has recent service centers) than 4 years ago (at the cybertruck announcement) would be further through their waitlist. Distance from the factory might also be a cause (red states are closer to TX on average) but OH seems to be further through the waitlist than CO.
I didn't want to just look at the highest reservation numbers in each state, as the data seems a little noisey, some people move states in the last 4 years, and people with more than one reservation sometimes report the recent reservation being invited.

So as a quick proxy I looked at the table in this thread, reservations after the first 500...
In states with 5 or fewer reservations (MD, KS, AL, PA, NM, IN, CT, SC, OK, NM, MA, KY, AR, LA, DE, WY, VT, RI, NH, NE, MT, IA, HI) which accounts for 61 reservations (not huge but significant, although it does get small considering only 11283s)... 11.5% of the reservations were 11283xxx and 16.4% were 11282xxx.
Compare this with the states with more than 5 orders ... 2.4% of the reservations were 11283xxx and 8.7% were 11282xxx.

So if you have a 11283 reservation you are 5x as likely to get an invite if you are in a state with few orders, than if you are in a state with lots of orders [compared to the overall recent reservation numbers]. However once you take a set of 61 orders and take 11.5% the numbers are rather small... but the 11282 data also leans (2x likelihood) in the same direction with bigger numbers which suggests to me that there is actual information here, not just noise.
There was only one 11283/11282 order prior to the first 500 so it isn't like all the CA 11283s were invited earlier.

For 11282 orders GA, NC, OH lead with 4 orders each compared with 2 for CA. (GA, NC, OH have 8-11 recent orders each so they aren't even in the 5 or fewer club for the above stats, while CA has 74)

So for the original clickbait-headline question... yes the 11283xxx reservations are 5.4% of recent orders in red states and 2.9% of recent orders in blue states. (similar but not quite as strong stats for 11282xxx). There is likely some cause for the correlation that results in Tesla being further through the waitlist in some areas, but the correlations with politics (and likely also race if you go looking for the correlation) are almost certainly incidental.

East coast states are further along because most of us were asleep when the reveal happened, so we didn't place orders until morning. I remember I woke up in the middle of the night, looked at the reveal quickly, placed an order, went back to sleep lol.

I suspect the same thing that you do, about a quota per state or delivery center or something like that. To get them spread out around the country. rather than sending all of them to the west coast first, since those people were all awake during the reveal. I got my invite at estimated position 70,000 (using the online reservation tracker) 3 days after my buddy in california did at estimated position 2800.

 

[MarkM913]

No new invites for 6 days. Is it over for the foundation series except for filling in for invites that don’t convert to orders soon.

That would be nice!! but not likely...

 

[BeleeEV]

Submitted

 

[cybrtrk88]

No new invites for 6 days. Is it over for the foundation series except for filling in for invites that don’t convert to orders soon.

Emails arrived today

 

[CyberTruckeeTheOne]

No new invites for 6 days. Is it over for the foundation series except for filling in for invites that don’t convert to orders soon.

If that's the case, then Tesla is sticking to the promise that FS is a limited edition of only 1,000.

 

[Fleetwood75]

Emails arrived today

I didn't get an e-mail today

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