ENDED: Tesla Q4 and Full Year '23 Earnings, Slides, References & Webcast link. (w/CT highlights)

[jerhenderson]

I never was a fanboy. This evolving CT story is beginning to make me question this company In general. Deadlines are missed, mistakes made Yada, Yama… but something just seems off. stay tuned. Won’t pull the plug on my stocks just yet but I am spooked.

Lol what? Concept to production is not guaranteed. Nothing is off, except what you expect. Patience. Delayed gratification.

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[jerhenderson]

Elon said demand is not a problem for CT, but I was hoping to get some specific numbers - how many FS orders so far, when non-FS will start? The only number I heard was quarter million CTs produced (give or take) per year once the production ramps up. So pretty much same information we have been hearing all this time. They said FS orders are "very encouraging" without any specific numbers. Ugh!

It was an earnings call. Not a product info call.

 

[jerhenderson]

Perhaps, but this feels different. All the prior vehicles were almost exactly what was forecast with some solvable initial issues. The CT is exceptional but it is so idiosyncratic and compromised that it will likely have a limited market share. I love it but have little confidence it will help Tesla as a company, hence my stock thoughts. My insights are limited and my opinion of dubious value but this feels like a mistake business wise.

The CT is almost the exact concept reveal for specs, with the added 48v and steering.

 

[jerhenderson]

Don't lecture others. That'd be my advice.

Some people need a lecture.

 

[Strykerwsu]

You stop complaining about my complaining.
What are we supposed to pivot to? Tiny truck? Or inferior truck? We have no choice but to wait. I already pivoted when I got my model Y
Pivot your way to another conversation

R1T‘s are not a full size truck but definitely not tiny, they are larger than traditional mid size trucks. You should check one out in person next to the CT. Once I get my CT I will send you some pics side by side.

 

[Fleetwood75]

yep.
Pay to win > day 1 loyalty

Last I checked the FS invites have only gone out to those who ordered in the first 24 hours with maybe a handful of exceptions. So I’d say that they’re still honoring day one loyalty.

 

[Gurule92]

Last I checked the FS invites have only gone out to those who ordered in the first 24 hours with maybe a handful of exceptions. So I’d say that they’re still honoring day one loyalty.

There are people with 113x... invites sooo

 

[Fleetwood75]

There are people with 113x... invites sooo

Way less than 1% of FS orders have an RN higher than 11285. Like I said, there’s a handful of outliers but generally speaking they are still only offering it to day one people

 

[Gurule92]

Way less than 1% of FS orders have an RN higher than 11285. Like I said, there’s a handful of outliers but generally speaking they are still only offering it to day one people

What was the last rn on day 1?

 

[Fleetwood75]

What was the last rn on day 1?

I ordered exactly 24 hours after the unveiling and mine is 11288.

 

[Gurule92]

I ordered exactly 24 hours after the unveiling and mine is 11288.

Ok. So if any after you get invited before day 1 ppl get their non-FS will you concede pay to win?

 

[WormtownKris]

I guess one question was answered, it seems only FS trucks are to be delivered in 2024. They haven't opened non-FS orders and they said that nearly all 2024 production has been reserved. Unless this is a trick to get more people to convert FS orders (which TBH, is very possible), on face value all 2024 production is FS.

I'm guessing that means non-FS orders open near the end of 2024, with delivery starting sometime in 2025.

I'm starting to wonder if this IS them being tricky. It doesn't make a lot of sense. My FS invite from 12/21 is still active. It still says "Feb-Apr 2024" for the FS AWD. How can they be "almost sold out for the year" if I could order right now and get it within 100 days? Something doesn't line up.
Could they cover themselves by saying that at this stage of their uncertain ramp, they're making, say, 150 trucks per week, and at that annual run rate of ~7500 trucks they've nearly filled the order book?
I am probably trying to talk myself into irrational optimism, but this statement does not jibe with the order pages and other info we ~have. ??‍

 

[Fleetwood75]

Ok. So if any after you get invited before day 1 ppl get their non-FS will you concede pay to win?

If they start offering FS to 2020 or later orders before day one reservation holders get offered Non-FS then I’ll concede. It was so long ago I don’t think we need to split hairs over how many hours after the unveil somebody ordered. In a way I look at all of us who ordered in 2019 as belonging to the Early Supporter pool.

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

125k CTs per annum is the new annual capacity number.

I'm assuming the margins aren't great for CT and they need to figure out efficiencies before increasing the manufacturing numbers. This also makes the FS make more sense, as it's a way to help margins. It's also an options package, not an increase to MSRP, so it can be marketed as an "affordable truck."

it also applies to the FS.......all the same......Slow AF. June 2024 deliveries for FS AWD Dec 25th orders I see. Laughing at Jan. to Mar 2024 deliveries.

 

[Amuma]

I never was a fanboy. This evolving CT story is beginning to make me question this company In general. Deadlines are missed, mistakes made Yada, Yama… but something just seems off. stay tuned. Won’t pull the plug on my stocks just yet but I am spooked.

Yeah but it's deadlines missed on nothing else like it. So ??‍

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