📊 Cybertruck SUBMITTED ORDERS Tracking List & Stats [Add Yours!]

[Coltpete]

From the delivered list, the 24th user has the VIN in xxx1000 range, means about 1000 cybertruck being made. The listed user here only represented a small portion of the total users received the truck. So 1000/24=41.66

On the order list, there are 1077 users, for the rough proportion, 1077*41.66=44875！ This is almost the same as wall street predicted number for 2024.

in the earning release, someone said they were almost sold out for 2024 is true. And we know the latest RN range is 11285×××, that is 100,000 reservation. So i guess the FS is 50,000, with the FS take rate is close to 50%.

And for people whose orders placed in second half of January won't get their truck before end of the year.

I don't think this is an accurate evaluation. Hundreds of Vin numbers were assigned to MC and employee deliveries. Your logic is sound I just don't think it's accurate enough to extrapolate off the VIN info we have. I don't have data to back this up but there's no way the take rate on FS is 50% or close to it. Not at $100-120k. Most opinions here believe it's less than 10%.

I believe that FS is based on time rather than numbers. Sounds from all accounts like FS will be for all AWDs delivered up until the end of Q2. For beasts with such limited production they will go to year end. Hence the estimated delivery dates on people's invites.

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[Spacenoddle]

I don't think this is an accurate evaluation. Hundreds of Vin numbers were assigned to MC and employee deliveries. Your logic is sound I just don't think it's accurate enough to extrapolate off the VIN info we have. I don't have data to back this up but there's no way the take rate on FS is 50% or close to it. Not at $100-120k. Most opinions here believe it's less than 10%.

I believe that FS is based on time rather than numbers. Sounds from all accounts like FS will be for all AWDs delivered up until the end of Q2. For beasts with such limited production they will go to year end. Hence the estimated delivery dates on people's invites.

Currently the RN sits on 11285xxxx block, 10% take rate means currently only 10K orders being made. So either true production rate for 2024 only a little over 10k, or the person from Tesla claims they almost sold out 2024 orders was a lie.

Besides what is "10% take rate" come from?

 

[Coltpete]

Currently the RN sits on 11285xxxx block, 10% take rate means currently only 10K orders being made. So either true production rate for 2024 only a little over 10k, or the person from Tesla claims they almost sold out 2024 orders was a lie.

Besides what is "10% take rate" come from?

I don't think there was anything concrete to take away from that comment on the earnings call. They said if the demand continues at this rate they will SOON be sold out for 2024. That doesn't even mean they are close. Soon is very vague and can mean anything on an earnings call. I'm not reading too much into it.

 

[SlippingSurlies]

On Friday I called Tesla and changed my order from the Tri-Motor to the AWD model so I could get it sooner and save $$. Posting here so the spreadsheet can be updated.

 

[Electric Ace]

On Friday I called Tesla and changed my order from the Tri-Motor to the AWD model so I could get it sooner and save $$. Posting here so the spreadsheet can be updated.

What number did you call? The delivery/service center was not helpful at all.

 

[Fleetwood75]

I don't think this is an accurate evaluation. Hundreds of Vin numbers were assigned to MC and employee deliveries. Your logic is sound I just don't think it's accurate enough to extrapolate off the VIN info we have. I don't have data to back this up but there's no way the take rate on FS is 50% or close to it. Not at $100-120k. Most opinions here believe it's less than 10%.

I believe that FS is based on time rather than numbers. Sounds from all accounts like FS will be for all AWDs delivered up until the end of Q2. For beasts with such limited production they will go to year end. Hence the estimated delivery dates on people's invites.

I think that there's no way that 50% of the first 100,000 Cybertruck Reservations get converted into orders/sales at the regular price, let alone 50% of the first 100,000 opting to buy a Foundation Series. My wild guess is 10% of those first 100,000 reservations end up as Foundation Series orders, 20% of the remaining end up as later non-FS orders, and therefore 70% of the first 100,000 reservation numbers never mature into an order for any number of reasons.

 

[Protondecay123]

I think that there's no way that 50% of the first 100,000 Cybertruck Reservations get converted into orders/sales at the regular price, let alone 50% of the first 100,000 opting to buy a Foundation Series. My wild guess is 10% of those first 100,000 reservations end up as Foundation Series orders, 20% of the remaining end up as later non-FS orders, and therefore 70% of the first 100,000 reservation numbers never mature into an order for any number of reasons.

Would you mind sharing your reasoning for those percentages?

 

[Fleetwood75]

Would you mind sharing your reasoning for those percentages?

In those first couple days a lot of people placed multiple RN’s per person. Anecdotally I’ve heard of lots of people who reserved both a dual motor and tri motor because it wasn’t obvious that you were going to be able to switch configurations later, and at $100 why not leave yourself the option. So there’s a whole bunch of redundant reservations that will get canceled

Also, we know from the forums here that there were a lot of people turned off by the price or specs or both when all of that was finally released during the Delivery Event, and so they won’t follow through

a decent number of folks are holding out for the single motor

finally there are some people who may have forgotten the reservation they placed over four years ago, or have died since then (pandemic).

i believe all of this adds up to 70% of original reservation numbers

Edit: oh and international orders

 

[FarAway]

Has anyone received an invitation to order since 1/23/2024? I do not see any new orders from invitations beyond 1/23/2024.

Wishing you luck, Brother!
My CT order is less than 30 days after yours, mid-February 2020, 132972xxx.
After lots of soul searching, real researching and deep thought, I have decided if the FS offer ever gets down to me, I will order the CyberBeast!
(I may have to make sacrifices elsewhere in my life, but so be it.)

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Wishing you luck, Brother!
My CT order is less than 30 days after yours, mid-February 2020, 132972xxx.
After lots of soul searching, real researching and deep thought, I have decided if the FS offer ever gets down to me, I will order the CyberBeast!
(I may have to make sacrifices elsewhere in my life, but so be it.)

Good luck sir! Is it just the acceleration that makes you want the beast CT or is there something more?

 

[FarAway]

Good luck sir! Is it just the acceleration that makes you want the beast CT or is there something more?

LoL, right! I would rather have it and not need it, than need it and not have it.
The cool name and logo sealed it. HAHA

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

LoL, right! I would rather have it and not need it, than need it and not have it.
The cool name and logo sealed it. HAHA

The logo IS cool.

I took a test ride in a Model X a few years ago, before we bought either our M3 or MY and the acceleration was a bit scary. The acceleration on the current MX is only slightly better than the CT so I am pretty certain that the AWD will be fine for me. For me range is more important.

 

[SlippingSurlies]

What number did you call? The delivery/service center was not helpful at all.

8 minute phone call and mine was swapped: 1-888-518-3752

 

[DFWBrad]

Seems like offers go out about once a week. We should know next. I hope they aren’t done I’m 112865. Hope to get an invite in the. Next 2 weeks

I'm 11288xxxx hoping that I make the cut this year xD

Also, anyone who has made an order. Was there an option to lease? Or only purchase/finance?

 

[Woodrick]

LoL, right! I would rather have it and not need it, than need it and not have it.
The cool name and logo sealed it. HAHA

The AWD has way more acceleration than you ever need, so will the RWD.

The Beast acceleration is just stupid.

The slowest Tesla is faster than most any other vehicle.

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