Charts predicting date of inviation to configure - Hope for the rest of us!

[docowen]

First time posting but long time watching this forum. Thank you to everyone who has provided such great insight and making this wait more tolerable.

I used the data from the Submitted Orders page and plotted RN vs invite date. Several assumptions made but here is the chart as it stands now. I eliminated the first couple of days of invites as there were several higher RN’s in that first round that likely reflect VIPs to get a more realistic trend-line. Also, deleted entries with likely errors (orders prior to 12/8, incorrect dates, incomplete RNs, etc). The trend-line is the mathematical best fit of the current data. Obviously, the current list is not complete and only includes orders entered in the spreadsheet so where the actual trend-line runs is likely not totally accurate, but this is a best estimate with available data. Where the trend-line goes will depend on several factors (increase in production/ramp-up, state allocations, number of RNs actually representing Cybertruck, etc).

Hopefully folks will find this representation of the data helpful.

I will continue to update the chart as more data comes available.

As of 2/14/2024

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[Jhodgesatmb]

First time posting but long time watching this forum. Thank you to everyone who has provided such great insight and making this wait more tolerable.

I used the data from the Submitted Orders page and plotted RN vs invite date. Several assumptions made but here is the chart as it stands now. I eliminated the first couple of days of invites as there were several higher RN’s in that first round that likely reflect VIPs to get a more realistic trend-line. Also, deleted entries with likely errors (orders prior to 12/8, incorrect dates, incomplete RNs, etc). The trend-line is the mathematical best fit of the current data. Obviously, the current list is not complete and only includes orders entered in the spreadsheet so where the actual trend-line runs is likely not totally accurate, but this is a best estimate with available data. Where the trend-line goes will depend on several factors (increase in production/ramp-up, state allocations, number of RNs actually representing Cybertruck, etc).

Hopefully folks will find this representation of the data helpful.

I will continue to update the chart as more data comes available.

As of 2/14/2024

This is great. Thank you. My only comment is the assumption that the line will remain linear. I believe that the further right we move the fewer conversions there will be for the FS and higher prices, so Tesla might cover more RNs in the same timeframe to keep the build rate constant. Also, as Tesla’s build rate increases they can send out more invitations. These two points, if true, would pull the line back. But if I get an invitation to order in April I would be happy.

 

[CyberNickOH]

Cool view. Probably not much value in an overlay of orders to delivery as 60 days seems to be somewhat consistent. Let you know in 3.5 weeks.

 

[Almost Mars]

I’m at 60 today or tomorrow. None in Washington yet.

 

[cbbowlingmd]

This is fantastic man. Thanks for doing this. Can't wait to see how it lines up over the next couple months. I have RN 11323.... so maybe July/Aug. Fingers crossed.

 

[CarMan ElecTruck]

I wonder what the highest official RN# currently is…

 

[cbbowlingmd]

I wonder what the highest official RN# currently is…

I've seen a 11286...

 

[ChiTownCT]

Missing me, 1130 .. I thought I saw couple invites out at 1130

 

[Gigahorse]

I wonder what the highest official RN# currently is…

Some people in the 1130s several are influencers so take that with a grain of salt

 

[Spacenoddle]

I wonder what the highest official RN# currently is…

Now start to move to 11287 block

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I've seen a 11286...

As of yesterday there were at least 2 11287s. Anything above that is probably an employee, friend, influencer, or mistake.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Missing me, 1130 .. I thought I saw couple invites out at 1130

Those are not 'normal' people, per se (sorry @greggertruck but you made yourself not normal .

 

[greggertruck]

Those are not 'normal' people, per se (sorry @greggertruck but you made yourself not normal .

I stick out a little bit for sure. Wild I didn't even have the account until 10.2022

I was on here a bit earlier though, it all started here with y'all.

 

[CyberGus]

I stick out a little bit for sure. Wild I didn't even have the account until 10.2022

I was on here a bit earlier though, it all started here with y'all.

I remember Greg before he had any followers ?

 

[greggertruck]

I remember Greg before he had any followers ?

I remember Gus before..... I had "followers"? too? hahahah <3

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