AWD Q3 end price/promotion predictions

[Griswold]

Now that CB has a luxe upcharge, I think it's safe to say AWD will stay under $80k through the end of the quarter for the tax credit.

Perhaps in Q4 that they'll raise AWD to include luxe prices since the $80k threshold no longer applies?

This will further cement the Cybertruck into the luxury category with limited sales, which is fine.

But as a prospective buyer, I was waiting til (near the) end of Q3 to purchase. I know this is all speculation, but for those around longer than me that knows what Tesla might do, what else could they throw on to drive up sales? I was hopelessly waiting for unlimited supercharging to swing the deal for me, but with this luxe package I doubt that would happen, right?

Best thing might be to snag an inventory with 1 year supercharging, $7500 tax credit, with 0% financing right now.

I know the saying, not to look at prices after you buy...

Also for the 0% rate... I fully expect to qualify. But in the case I don't, am I forced to take whatever rate they give me? Or can I back out without any recourse?

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[Beetlebug62]

I thought one of Tesla's program managers was quoted on Twitter that they weren't going to do any additional promos to pull forward sales.

The logic is, if demand is already high, because of the end of the credit, there's no value in driving up demand even more.

The question is what they do for Q4.

 

[Griswold]

I thought one of Tesla's program managers was quoted on Twitter that they weren't going to do any additional promos to pull forward sales.

The logic is, if demand is already high, because of the end of the credit, there's no value in driving up demand even more.

The question is what they do for Q4.

If that is true/confirmed that would help pull the trigger now!

 

[Mini2nut]

It will be interesting to see what CT incentives Tesla will pull out of its hat for Q4. Cybertruck demand should slow after the $7500 federal tax credit disappears 5-weeks from now.

 

[CyberTruckz]

I too think they will include AWD in the luxe package plan and make CT cost line up with S and X, I also think they will discontinue RWD at some point.

 

[hemiarch]

I think they will keep the cyberbeast with the luxe package as is and try to offer “free” options to the tune of some or all of $7500 on the AWD and RWD.
Free white interior and/or AT wheels with FSD purchase. That sort of thing.
Why not at least TRY to make up the price difference with currency that doesn’t cost them anything or very little?
Will likely end the FSD transfer too I think.

 

[Sterling Shadow]

It’s funny, I very much enjoy the buying process of Tesla. No haggle, same price everywhere, all through the app. Makes buying a breeze compared to traditional.
However, like this thread outlines. Buying a Tesla is like buying a computer or a phone. Incentives here and there, and the tech is changing by the month. I have no doubt that after 1-2 years my CT and MY will start to become outdated.
Obviously it’s somewhat similar with ICE vehicles but not nearly as rapid.
While selfishly it would feel good for the deals to go away or the price to rise since I literally bought 2 last month, it really makes no difference if you love your ride.
I have 1 year free SC with my CT and I love it, I have home solar and a charger but super charging is pretty darn amazing when they are near your residence or work. I would love life time SC. I mean, who wouldn’t love free gas forever! Sure would be tough to part with that vehicle someday.
Just buy when you are ready and enjoy the heck out of it. The CT will quickly cause price amnesia!

 

[Beetlebug62]

It’s funny, I very much enjoy the buying process of Tesla. No haggle, same price everywhere, all through the app. Makes buying a breeze compared to traditional.
However, like this thread outlines. Buying a Tesla is like buying a computer or a phone. Incentives here and there, and the tech is changing by the month. I have no doubt that after 1-2 years my CT and MY will start to become outdated.
...
Just buy when you are ready and enjoy the heck out of it. The CT will quickly cause price amnesia!

I would just add to your excellent post, that my 2018 Model 3 did not feel outdated even in 2025, as it continued to get software updates.

Sure, it didn't have the heat pump or the heated steering, but the car didn't feel any different than the day I bought it. Of course, it was better than the day I bought it, thanks to software.

If you really want to feel outdated, just go back and drive an ICE! Now, that feels weird.

 

[Sterling Shadow]

Or even non-steer by wire. Makes my 2026 MY already feel outdated

 

[YDR37]

The prices of the Cyberbeast, Model X, and Model S have gone up, but more features are included. So maybe that is how Tesla will handle the expiration of the tax credit for the AWD/RWD Cybertruck, Model 3, and Model Y. Maybe Tesla will let the effective price rise by $7,500 for 4Q 2025, but include more features to compensate.

Tesla seems to have radically revised its thinking about Model X pricing. Tesla jumped through all the hoops to make the 2025 MX eligible for the tax credit at $79,990. Then in February, they raised the price by $5,000, putting it over the $80,000 eligibility cap. The price went up by another $5,000 in June, and now by another $10,000. So now it starts at $100,000. Officially, the MX is still listed as credit-eligible, but only at prices below $80,000, which is obviously impossible now.

 

[hemiarch]

The part I’m most interested in with respect to the end of q3 is what they are going to do about letting powerwall users use PowerShare.
I have been very very patient

 

[Foraker]

The part I’m most interested in with respect to the end of q3 is what they are going to do about letting powerwall users use PowerShare.
I have been very very patient

I'm also a prospective buyer waiting for this to happen before I pull the trigger. Totally expecting to have to make a snap decision towards end of Q3 without certainty as to what price will do in Q4 and probably also still waiting software for PowerShare with Powerwall/solar.

 

[hemiarch]

I don’t know, if it was me, I’d believe it will happen sooner or later and not do anything to risk missing out on the genuinely amazing tax benefit.

 

[Foraker]

I don’t know, if it was me, I’d believe it will happen sooner or later and not do anything to risk missing out on the genuinely amazing tax benefit.

A big part of me feels this way, but the CT is a big investment for me, and convincing my wife is proving difficult . . . plus we don't qualify for the tax credit, so need to lease to get the $7500 incentive, which is fine, but limits options and maybe increases uncertainty past Q3.

 

[hemiarch]

A big part of me feels this way, but the CT is a big investment for me, and convincing my wife is proving difficult . . . plus we don't qualify for the tax credit, so need to lease to get the $7500 incentive, which is fine, but limits options and maybe increases uncertainty past Q3.

Oh. I was referring to the solar and powerwall 30% on Uncle Sam

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