What a joke…B.C. bans self-driving vehicles on its roads

[mitch9]

Yes, I'm sure the robotaxi will do okay. Remember, you can't take more than 1 other person with you. Yes, I know that Tesla will use the Model Y for that purpose but we are talking about the RoboTaxi. just I don't see the majority of people giving up their free will to just ride around everywhere in a robotaxi much less all the thinking people.

RoboTaxi implies all vehicles Tesla deploys in the fleet, including the future RoboVan with 9-12 seats & room for cargo, the Model Y's, Model 3's & CyberTrucks may all be in the fleet, eventually.

This isn't designed for older generations, it is for younger generations, and they are not tied to the same concepts you and I are, they care little about vehicle ownership, and are more focused on "experiences"... and many of them are struggling, and can't afford to own vehicles, houses, etc.

No ones opinion has EVER been changed on the internet, and that's fine.

I am not trying to convince YOU, I am speaking to the larger audience, your opinion doesn't need to change, for the RoboTaxi to be a massive success.

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[TyPope]

RoboTaxi implies all vehicles Tesla deploys in the fleet, including the future RoboVan with 9-12 seats & room for cargo, the Model Y's, Model 3's & CyberTrucks may all be in the fleet, eventually.

This isn't designed for older generations, it is for younger generations, and they are not tied to the same concepts you and I are, they care little about vehicle ownership, and are more focused on "experiences"... and many of them are struggling, and can't afford to own vehicles, houses, etc.

No ones opinion has EVER been changed on the internet, and that's fine.

I am not trying to convince YOU, I am speaking to the larger audience, your opinion doesn't need to change, for the RoboTaxi to be a massive success.

I know. It'll be a success. I'm just saying it's more of a limited success than "everyone". I have 4 daughters. They all have their own cars. They ARE the younger generation. One just has her learner's permit but she and her friends all have cars. Except Ben. He's the weird kid.

I don't care for city life and we are quite rural. There will probably always be self-owned cars in rural areas.

 

[dalton108]

again, not everyone will change to RoboTaxi's, the business case doesn't need everyone to.
doesn't need %100 adoption, enough will to move the needle and absolutley destroy the automotive industry, just watch it unfold. regarding kids, nope, don't have them, don;'t want them, doesn't change anything though for the Robotaxi taking over transportation for the vast majority of people

The business case for this is a lot weaker than you think it is. I think it will happen, but babies are not an edge case. It’s going to be a huge hurdle for adoption for a lot of of the exact kind of people that would be using these.

I told everybody here from day one at 300 miles was not enough range for a truck and everybody gave me every kind of reason why what I wanted to do was a fucking edge case. A bunch of retirees and rich dudes with $120,000 at the time to spend on a truck trying to tell me that going off road and far a field is something that only minor fraction of people want to do. It’s fucking crazy talk. The proof is in the pudding NOBODY is buying these 300 miles naked; 100 mile towing trucks! IT’S A NON-STARTER.

Jay Leno already explained this simply and perfectly. In order for a new technology to takeoff it has to do everything better than the old technology not some of the time not with limitations flat out better.

The first time a Robotaxi shows up to pick you up with a dirty diaper and vomit all over it you will begin to understand the difficulties that this approach is going to face.

Yes, younger generations have less of an ownership mentality and maybe more accepting of a communal car situation but that alone isn’t enough to make this work.

Will it happen eventually? To a large degree I believe so will it happen anywhere near on the timeframe that Elon is selling investors? Hell no. Not even close.

 

[dalton108]

I know. It'll be a success. I'm just saying it's more of a limited success than "everyone". I have 4 daughters. They all have their own cars. They ARE the younger generation. One just has her learner's permit but she and her friends all have cars. Except Ben. He's the weird kid.

I don't care for city life and we are quite rural. There will probably always be self-owned cars in rural areas.

Yep, just like horses. The AI/robot backlash is going to be much worse than people think. You can see it brewing right now if you pay attention. It’s going to make the Luddites look like chess club.

 

[dalton108]

This reminds me of my days working at Blockbuster. It was during the transition to DVDs from VHS. I remember customers question, “how do I rewind this? I don’t want to be charged for not rewinding it.” It was up to us to inform them that there was no need, Digital Video Discs don’t require physical rewinding.
Educating the masses is not an overnight achievement. It takes time and effort. A lot of people refuse to accept what is new because they don’t understand it, or don’t want to.
I use the Horse and Carriage analogy often when I’m explaining the transition from ICE to EV. At first, people laughed. Then, they cried out it was “dangerous!” “Mini explosions happening and you’re next to it?! I’ll never feel safe next to that thing and I’m certainly not riding around in it!” And then they realized, “wait, I can move faster and enjoy a manure-free ride to my destination? Interesting.”
It will happen. How long it takes is TBD, but claiming it’s not going to happen because it hasn’t happened yet, or it’s decades away when my car basically does everything from start to finish without me, is patently absurd.
I am not a technophile. Far from it. I’m actually more old fashioned than most and I have been and still am a Motörhead at heart. But I don’t keep my head the sand. The times, they are a changing. And we have to roll with it or become dust in the wind..
And if this was all TLDR (I only recently learned what that meant), then just remember:
Be Kind, and Rewind

The problem is the horse and buggy analogy isn’t really quite perfect. Let’s completely ignore the part that some of earliest cars were already fully electric at the turn-of-the-century I think Jay Leno has several examples. Robotaxis are not going to be the only solution. Humanoid robots will be able to drive regular cars. It’s not going to be as simple as all that.

On another note (pun not originally intended), with your melody above: “The times, they are a changing. And we have to roll with it or become dust in the wind..”

All we are saaay-ying is giiive Eeee Veee’s a chance! was right there!

 

[mitch9]

The first time a Robotaxi shows up to pick you up with a dirty diaper and vomit all over it you will begin to understand the difficulties that this approach is going to face.

Yes, younger generations have less of an ownership mentality and maybe more accepting of a communal car situation but that alone isn’t enough to make this work.

Will it happen eventually? To a large degree I believe so will it happen anywhere near on the timeframe that Elon is selling investors? Hell no. Not even close.

cut out some of your reply.

Tesla has cleaning factored into the RoboTaxi rollout, as well as wireless charging. They will figure this out, having people/robots at the facilities where they are charging, and they will get cleaned while charging. They also have cameras, so if debris is deteced, it can make a decision to "go home" for cleaning.

We have no idea what the time frame will be, a resonable time is 4-6 years, but it is not just destroying the business models of Human driven Ubers & Lyfts, but will have wide ranging and unforseen consequences, as new technologies often do.

we'll see how quickly other business's are affected, I expect a lot more Tesla "FUD"/"news" stories because of the consequences, but that will not slow Tesla down.

 

[CyberGus]

I expect a lot more Tesla "FUD"/"news" stories because of the consequences, but that will not slow Tesla down.

You know what will slow down Tesla? Physics.

Even if demand is off the charts, they can only build maybe 1M per year? In 10 years, that will still be only 5% of the US vehicle fleet.

I think Robotaxi will be a huge success, but it will not supplant private ownership in the near term.

 

[mitch9]

You know what will slow down Tesla? Physics.

Even if demand is off the charts, they can only build maybe 1M per year? In 10 years, that will still be only 5% of the US vehicle fleet.

I think Robotaxi will be a huge success, but it will not supplant private ownership in the near term.

They have multiple factories, Fremont, Austin, China, Germany.

They can all be making them, as well as what they are currently producing, as it scales.

They currently manufacture 2M vehicles/year, but these are much simpler, and designed to be made by mostly automation, with the "unboxed" process, so they come off the line much quicker, and at lower overall cost.

They don't need to replace all of the vehicles, because, one of the "unkknown" consequences is going to be less demand for vehicles. Who will feel that the most? ICE manufacturers, as it will be painfully clear what direction the world is moving towards. I never said all private vehicles will be replaced in "X" years, it will take time, the near death of the ICE industry, because demand is way down, etc. Doesn't matter how long it takes, and that some will still want to own/drive their own vehicles, that's all fine. and expected.

BTW, the natural gas and oil infrastructure lost in the Iran/middle east conflict? I doubt %100 of it is ever replaced, the high producing fields, yes, but what sane company is going to want to pour a lot of $ into last centuries tech? not many. Again, this points to fewer ICE vehicles being sold, in a world of more expensive oil & gas.

 

[TyPope]

They have multiple factories, Fremont, Austin, China, Germany.

They can all be making them, as well as what they are currently producing, as it scales.

They currently manufacture 2M vehicles/year, but these are much simpler, and designed to be made by mostly automation, with the "unboxed" process, so they come off the line much quicker, and at lower overall cost.

They don't need to replace all of the vehicles, because, one of the "unkknown" consequences is going to be less demand for vehicles. Who will feel that the most? ICE manufacturers, as it will be painfully clear what direction the world is moving towards. I never said all private vehicles will be replaced in "X" years, it will take time, the near death of the ICE industry, because demand is way down, etc. Doesn't matter how long it takes, and that some will still want to own/drive their own vehicles, that's all fine. and expected.

BTW, the natural gas and oil infrastructure lost in the Iran/middle east conflict? I doubt %100 of it is ever replaced, the high producing fields, yes, but what sane company is going to want to pour a lot of $ into last centuries tech? not many. Again, this points to fewer ICE vehicles being sold, in a world of more expensive oil & gas.

I think we'll see a lot of yo-yo with fuel/oil prices. Supply and Demand.

If 50% of cars produced in 2027 world-wide were electric, the demand for transportation gas would be cut significantly. This would drive the price of oil way down, down far enough that some refineries/exporters may go out of business. But, those left will compete for the remaining falling fuel market. I mean, it's not like an oil producing country is going to say "Screw it. Let's grow potatoes instead."

But, as producers fall off, oil prices will rise and more producers, etc.

Cars and trucks don't use all the gas made.

We'll start to see gas stations closing down and not be replaced. Not even by charging stations. Face it. Most charging takes place along routes and not in-town. Although, cities with apartments... There will be some in-town charging structure but it won't be as prolific as gas stations.

I can see a future where it's so expensive to fuel up and maintain an ICE vehicle that few will bother. I can also see a future where people relenquish driving responsibilities to FSD. However, I don't see a future where nobody owns cars. Some of us will. There are just situations where it doesn't make sense to not have a car. Those may be more of an edge case but I don't know a single person who doesn't have a car nor do I know anyone who has said anything like "I can't wait until I don't have to have a car any longer."

But, I was born back in the 1900s...

 

[tingmo13]

forget about AV-America is still in Zen mode on EVs. People don't believe when I say my car does not have Start Button-I refrain from talking about FSD.

 

[CyberGus]

People don't believe when I say my car does not have Start Button

Sure it does

 

[jimbobb23]

There was a time when I thought the same way about this, but there are a few very compelling arguments I’ve heard that have made me curb my enthusiasm/expectations a bit.

1. People have car seats and other things that they don’t want to have to constantly clean out out of whatever Robotaxi they’re using. People like to have cars as their own space. Ask my wife, despite my protestations her car is usually just a mobile storage unit.

2. We haven’t really solved inclement weather and mobile autonomous charging yet.

3. The whole concept isn’t particularly compelling for rural people/areas.

Most people will move to a 1 car model...the family car that carries all the people and all the stuff and can do fun stuff. Then use robotaxi for the rest. My commuter car won't be necessary but we will still need the Cybertruck for camping. It will vary from family but people will still have their own cars for a long time. Eventually they will drive themselves but just like it's possible (and maybe cheaper) to rent a hotel or long term stay all the time people don't like that. We want to leave the sports equipment in the back of the car or whatever. But we might only use that one car on special occasions.

 

[dalton108]

Most people will move to a 1 car model...the family car that carries all the people and all the stuff and can do fun stuff. Then use robotaxi for the rest. My commuter car won't be necessary but we will still need the Cybertruck for camping. It will vary from family but people will still have their own cars for a long time. Eventually they will drive themselves but just like it's possible (and maybe cheaper) to rent a hotel or long term stay all the time people don't like that. We want to leave the sports equipment in the back of the car or whatever. But we might only use that one car on special occasions.

Yeah, like you said— there’ll be various solutions. I’ll still have 6+ cars.

 

[TeslaKen]

The 2 things I learned from this topic thread:

1) Playing CDs backwards is hard.
2) There would be no Apollo 11 without Apollo 1

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

New technology typically has a positive impact on society in the long term. The short term can be disruptive and painful for some people/groups.

Its actually pretty remarkable how slowly regulations have been behind on Self Driving. Very few other new technologies have the capacity to kill as Self Driving, and yet we have all been beta testers for the last 10 years at 75mph on public roads. If your new sonic wave juice blender malfunctions, at worst you have a messy counter top. When self driving fails people can and have died.

Although you may well be correct about highway deaths at 75 mph, I have become more than a bit wary of claims both for and against FSD. If you could share a link to your source then I can check the veracity of what you are saying. i would also want to know what the percentage of deaths on highways is from cars using DAS as opposed to those without, if your source has that kind of data. Thanks!

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