Ordered a Rivian R1T after owning a Cybertruck for three months

[HaulingAss]

They have been guiding for a while that they expect to be gross profit positive on the R1 platform after this year.

Actually, Rivian hasn't been guiding for gross profitability after this year.

AFAIK, they have only guided for one quater of gross profitability. If they hit that in Q4 (as they are guiding) it will likely be due to everything lining up perfectly, and Q1 will revert to gross losses.

I don't follow Rivian that closely, so please inform me if I'm wrong. I think they're going to have a really hard time with that unless batteries get suddenly cheaper than they already are. And if they do get that cheap, it will likely be because Tesla has successfully ramped 4180 cells to high volume, creating a temporary glut of batteries.

Companyies forward guidance predictions are regularly wrong, generally in the optimistic direction. I hope this is not an example of that, but my observation warns that it is.

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[SCTesla]

Still trying to figure out why there are so many people that need more range… who drives 300+ mile stretches without any access to recharge… ?

People towing. All EV range can be roughly cut in half (sometimes more, sometimes less) depending on the load, speed, and aerodynamics. So 500=250 while 318=159. That's a massive difference if you are towing something and want to go there and back without having to charge, you are basically limited to 80 miles at 100%, which in the real world is 72 miles, assuming they did start with 100%. Factoring in degradation and most using 80%, especially if using a Supercharger, it makes sense that people want a lot more range.

EV trucks are great for a lot of things, but it will be a while (new technology) until they are ideal for that sort of trailering.

 

[jerhenderson]

I really don't know why you posted this in a CT group. I have no interest in the rivian whatsoever.

 

[HaulingAss]

I believe this is no longer the case with their second gen with all of the changes they made. Or at the very least, I don't think their losses are anywhere as large as they used to be.

Maybe you didn't read what I actually wrote. In a nutshell:

Rivian's cost to produce has fallen dramatically, and it will continue to fall with Gen 2. I just think it's going to be very difficult to get it below the price the vehicles can be sold at in any volume, on a sustainable basis. And even if they did succeed at doing that, it won't get them anywhere near net profitability.

In other words, they have a longer hill to climb than Tesla in 2018 (when Tesla was ramping Model 3). And the hill is steep. And the soil is loose. And the troops are tired. And the General is unwilling to commit. And the opponents are fierce warriors.

Just sayin' anyone who thinks this will happen, because they hope it will happen, is not seeing things realistically. I'm a realist. I hope it will happen but I'm not seeing it. It's up to RJ who maintains unusually tight control of his company. Even the latest deal didn't ceed any control to VW. I think he might be in over his head.

 

[Giskard]

Actually, Rivian hasn't been guiding for gross profitability after this year.

AFAIK, they have only guided for one quater of gross profitability. If they hit that in Q4 (as they are guiding) it will likely be due to everything lining up perfectly, and Q1 will revert to gross losses.

I don't follow Rivian that closely, so please inform me if I'm wrong. I think they're going to have a really hard time with that unless batteries get suddenly cheaper than they already are. And if they do get that cheap, it will likely be because Tesla has successfully ramped 4180 cells to high volume, creating a temporary glut of batteries.

Companyies forward guidance predictions are regularly wrong, generally in the optimistic direction. I hope this is not an example of that, but my observation warns that it is.

You could be right as I don't follow Rivian super closely either. I've heard the positive gross profit goal for Q4 or Q1 2025 and I guess I assumed they meant it would be sustainable from then on - my bad.

I agree they are far from out of the woods. They are burning through their cash pile too quickly and need to reduce costs more aggressively imo. I'm not a Rivian hater or anything as I do want them to succeed. I was even on the R1S reservation list for a while.

 

[CyberTW]

I've had my Cybertruck for three months. Last week, I ordered a 2025 Rivian R1T Adventure Dual Max with an estimated range of 420 miles. I'm expecting delivery of my Rivian in Sep-Oct.

I'm plan on keeping my Cybertruck for at least a year. Hopefully they won't have to be in for service at the same time.

I'm anticipating the R1T to have 30% more range than my Cybertruck. This extended range battery doesn't take up space in the load bed like the Cybertruck's range extender. The Rivian offers two additional advantages. When towing with the Cybertruck, we have to drop the trailer in order to back up to the Supercharger. On the Rivian, the charging port is in front of the front wheels, meaning we can pull straight in up to the charger. The Rivian can charge at many of the Superchargers that I use on a regular basis. Also, the Rivian has storage space for a full size spare tire, like most other pickups. The spare tire in my Cybertruck takes up half of the load bed. Both the Cybertruck and Rivian have a maximum towing capacity of 11,000 pounds. For the reasons stated above, the Rivian will definitely be my towing vehicle of choice.

The R1T Gen 2 truck includes Rivian's Autonomy Platform+ (Trial included through 2024), which includes 11 high-resolution cameras, including new 4K HDR units, ultrasonic sensors, and five advanced radars, including a Front Imaging Radar, detecting objects up to 1,000-feet away even in challenging weather and lighting conditions. These radars serve as a vital backup to the cameras. I liked having radar and ultrasonic sensors on my Model 3. I like having sensors that can see in unfavorable conditions.

Dual NVIDIA DRIVE Orin processors running DRIVE OS help power the Autonomy Compute Module on Rivian's second generation R1, performing over 250 trillion operations per second. Tesla is ahead of Rivian with FSD v.12, but Rivian had the hardware needed to catch up.

The price of the R1T Dual-motor AWD is $69,900, plus $14,000 for the Max battery, for a total of $83,900.
For more info, see https://stories.rivian.com/meet-the-new-r1

Good to hear from you RJ! Thanks for coming on the Cybertruck forum for your ad. I hope you get your costs structures down so you will be in business in a few years. You make a good truck. Different from the Cybertruck, but good

this post is so strange for the forum… like why? It’s like the person who said they are moving to Canada after the elections and espouse all the good things of Canada to convince us to move… and of course, you could espouse all the good things of Rivian, but it ain’t changing my mind .. just strange forum behavior

 

[GatorCyber]

The EV towing problem is not solely because of the range, also come from the long charge time. bigger battery longer changing time.

The charge time is even longer when towing because you likely need to charge to 100% at every charger to make the next one instead of only charging to 60%-70%. And only current EV owners realize charging speed tapers severely as the battery fills up.

So instead of charging for 15-25 minutes every 3 hours, you are stuck charging for 1 hour every 1-2 hours when towing.

 

[GatorCyber]

Rivian claims they will be Gross Margin positive by year end, but that doesn't mean they will turn a profit, because GM is before Operating Expenses. This means they will break-even or better on the production of vehicles, but they will still lose money because GM doesn't include Operating expense, which is another 10% (I don't know their Opex margins).

But $69,900 for a Dual Motor Pickup means Cybertruck will have to meet that price sometime in 2025. I got my CT VIN, but not really sure about paying $107k all-in. But Rivian isn't even an option for me living 100 miles west of Tallahassee, as they won't even let me order a new vehicle and service is 6 hours away in ATL

 

[rudedawg78]

I've had my Cybertruck for three months. Last week, I ordered a 2025 Rivian R1T Adventure Dual Max with an estimated range of 420 miles. I'm expecting delivery of my Rivian in Sep-Oct.

I'm plan on keeping my Cybertruck for at least a year. Hopefully they won't have to be in for service at the same time.

I'm anticipating the R1T to have 30% more range than my Cybertruck. This extended range battery doesn't take up space in the load bed like the Cybertruck's range extender. The Rivian offers two additional advantages. When towing with the Cybertruck, we have to drop the trailer in order to back up to the Supercharger. On the Rivian, the charging port is in front of the front wheels, meaning we can pull straight in up to the charger. The Rivian can charge at many of the Superchargers that I use on a regular basis. Also, the Rivian has storage space for a full size spare tire, like most other pickups. The spare tire in my Cybertruck takes up half of the load bed. Both the Cybertruck and Rivian have a maximum towing capacity of 11,000 pounds. For the reasons stated above, the Rivian will definitely be my towing vehicle of choice.

The R1T Gen 2 truck includes Rivian's Autonomy Platform+ (Trial included through 2024), which includes 11 high-resolution cameras, including new 4K HDR units, ultrasonic sensors, and five advanced radars, including a Front Imaging Radar, detecting objects up to 1,000-feet away even in challenging weather and lighting conditions. These radars serve as a vital backup to the cameras. I liked having radar and ultrasonic sensors on my Model 3. I like having sensors that can see in unfavorable conditions.

Dual NVIDIA DRIVE Orin processors running DRIVE OS help power the Autonomy Compute Module on Rivian's second generation R1, performing over 250 trillion operations per second. Tesla is ahead of Rivian with FSD v.12, but Rivian had the hardware needed to catch up.

The price of the R1T Dual-motor AWD is $69,900, plus $14,000 for the Max battery, for a total of $83,900.
For more info, see https://stories.rivian.com/meet-the-new-r1

Why does this post sound like a sales pitch?

 

[rudedawg78]

This read like an ad...

For real, I swear the OP copied and pasted some of the Rivian specs from the website.

 

[Cyber Man]

I went through the exact list of pros and cons between CT and Rivian, including the latest R1T. The Rivian pros highlighted by the OP are accurate to some degree. I decided to stick with CT reservation for few important reasons - metal body, superior charging network, Tesla EV dominance, and steer by wire. My use case will be in both urban and farm setting. I can’t tell you how many times I have dinged my vehicle moving around close spaces. I don’t have to ever worry about small dents and dings. This is one of the highly underrated feature of CT IMO. Steer by wire is a game changer in tight spaces. Space for spare time might be a miss, but after reading another thread on how to use tire repair kits, I’m not worried anymore. 300 mile range is more than enough. None of the EV trucks are good enough for long tow trips. At the end, if you really think through, CT is actually a no brainer. On top of all this, I think Tesla won’t go out of business, as @HaulingAss said. If Robo taxi and Optimus are a hit, then Tesla will be unstoppable. I prefer to own products from a company that has a bright future. Rivian is definitely great, but I worry about their inability to scale and stay profitable. Ownership cost will depend a lot on how profitable the company is. I don’t want to spend a fortune maintaining a product like that.

I just hope CT becomes a norm in the truck industry, so that it doesn’t stay as an exotic luxury truck anymore. For someone like me who wants to maintain a low profile, this is the biggest pro of a Rivian!

 

[Spacenoddle]

Why does this post sound like a sales pitch?

It is not sales pitch. It just because OP copy and paste too much detail of spec data to support his point. Those details obviously were for the marketing purpose.

 

[firsttruck]

.....

I just hope CT becomes a norm in the truck industry, so that it doesn’t stay as an exotic luxury truck anymore. For someone like me who wants to maintain a low profile, this is the biggest pro of a Rivian!

How is Rivian pickup going to be low profile when it has an obviously non-standard front hood/frunk design with unusual designed headlights (some think are goofy looking).

 

[flyinglow]

Enjoy your Rivian!

Unfortunately, it costs Rivian more to make each vehicle than they can sell them for. They have been whittling away at the cost to produce, but they are getting to the point where it's going to be harder to eliminate all losses.

Not that that's your problem as long as they keep the doors open, I mention it because the price is artificial and unsustainable. It's fake competition that cannot sustain itself. But as long as Rivian can keep getting more cash lifelines (like they just did from VW), they will keep making them in relatively small numbers. The problem from a consumer perspective happens if and when the cash dries up. Because there is no guarantee they will ever be able to compete with other automakers without investor subsidies.

I'm not trying to throw shade, I'm just being realistic with what I'm seeing about the way they operate. Hopefully they are able to increase manufacturing efficiencies, so they get to not only gross profit, but also eventually a net profit. Tesla in the early days was profitable on a gross basis almost every quarter. Meaning each additional car they sold helped them out financially, even though they were still losing money overall (because they weren't selling enough cars at a high enough gross profit). Rivian is the opposite, each additional car they sell causes bigger losses. Yes, the gross loss per car has declined dramaitcally, but there should have been gross profits per car from near the beginning. Elon always believed their was no point in selling a car for less than it cost you to make it, that you should sell cars designed to cost less to make than they were worth on the free market. Anyone can build nice cars, the question is can they be built for less than their actual market value?

I would like to see Rivian remain in business for the long haul.

5 billion from VW should keep Rivian afloat while they optimize production costs not to mention the R2 and R3 models having broader markets.

As great as the CT's technology and general practicality is, the only significant disadvantage the R1T has to it is the smaller size. As I point out in various posts, we are blessed with a wonderful assortment of EV pickup choices. We should celebrate that and let people "choose their poison" without bashing their decisions.

 

[Sturdybirdy]

Would be great to hear your thoughts after you receive your rivian. Comparisons with CT, etc…

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