How long do you think it would take to get a CT if you reserved from scratch today?

[T35L4]

Asking for a friend... Anyone get a CT in a short term by starting the ordering process recently?

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[trentsize]

2025, probably the far end of the year. Nobody that’s put a deposit down “recently” is going to have one.

 

[igs]

Pretty sure if you reserve now you will get offered the FS in a couple weeks.

 

[T35L4]

Why such a huge divergence in answers? If it’s scalable in a couple weeks, then that means Tesla has caught up with production?

 

[MetalBonsai]

2025, probably the far end of the year. Nobody that’s put a deposit down “recently” is going to have one.

I believe this is the correct answer. Order today, you're likely looking at late 2025. But if you want one sooner at not a huge mark up, I would guess that the used market will likely cool its prices to not ridiculous levels by early 2025.

 

[Pops]

Why such a huge divergence in answers? If it’s scalable in a couple weeks, then that means Tesla has caught up with production?

Paying for the Founders Series is essentially a "line skip". Even if you ordered today and are at the end of the line, FS would put you ahead of someone who reserved 5 years ago.

Tesla is guiding a ramp-up to 250,000 Cybertrucks per year in roughly 18 months, which would put that milestone in mid-2025.

Tesla has stated they have over 2 million reservations. If only 15% of those turned into purchases that is at least 2 or 3 years of production. I doubt they will hit the guided production numbers, but its possible.

For comparison Ford has sold an average of around 900,000 F-150s per year over the past three years. The CT will never hit those numbers, but it gives you an idea of the size of the truck market.

 

[wanders]

I believe this is the correct answer. Order today, you're likely looking at late 2025. But if you want one sooner at not a huge mark up, I would guess that the used market will likely cool its prices to not ridiculous levels by early 2025.

That's insane... No way that's right. Elon said in the Shareholder meeting that their stretch goal is 2,500/week by end of 2024 (that's 10k/month, 120k/year). Currently it's estimated there's more than 1 Million reservations, but possibly up to and beyond 2 Million. The Foundation Series was a few thousand?

For someone who just reserved, assuming Tesla follows some sort of chronologial order, and there aren't a wild amount of cancellations, you're looking at 3-5 years minimum, probably closer to 8+ years.

 

[T35L4]

Looks like a continued divergence in answers. Curious if anyone first hand in this forum actually started the process this year and then wound up getting the CT this year as well. If so, please let us know and go into detail what your experience was!

 

[Coagulation]

No way of knowing. You have to figure reservations have gone way up since launch since the thing is a driving advertisement for itself.

Now basically everyone has seen it that was not fanatically following this thing pre launch.

The price is also now known. So you’d assume people who reserved fully knowing the price / foundation can afford it, meaning high conversion.

Still, my guess is that a reservation today can produce a FS by year end.

Non-FS probably much longer, maybe next year end (assuming those who received FS invites do pull the trigger at a greater rate which is TBD as both $80k and $100k is a lot of money.)

 

[RoboTaxi]

If ordering today you would receive a dual motor a lot quicker then a tri-motor. As far as when……

 

[Woodrick]

Looks like a continued divergence in answers. Curious if anyone first hand in this forum actually started the process this year and then wound up getting the CT this year as well. If so, please let us know and go into detail what your experience was!

i.e. No one knows.

 

[trentsize]

Looks like a continued divergence in answers. Curious if anyone first hand in this forum actually started the process this year and then wound up getting the CT this year as well. If so, please let us know and go into detail what your experience was!

I preordered 8 months ago and haven’t been invited yet. Nobody has gotten one from a more recent preorder. The order page has shown 2025 delivery for a while now.

 

[CyberTW]

That's insane... No way that's right. Elon said in the Shareholder meeting that their stretch goal is 2,500/week by end of 2024 (that's 10k/month, 120k/year). Currently it's estimated there's more than 1 Million reservations, but possibly up to and beyond 2 Million. The Foundation Series was a few thousand?

For someone who just reserved, assuming Tesla follows some sort of chronologial order, and there aren't a wild amount of cancellations, you're looking at 3-5 years minimum, probably closer to 8+ years.

Well there were 2million “reservations” last November. Let’s just assume over 60% bailed. So now only 800k. Assume 300k more bailed after the price was revealed.. now we are at 500k waiting. Let’s say The waiting washes out ANOTHER 100k. Now we are at 400k. 22k-ish are foundation and 380k are waiting for the price drop non-FS. at the run rate expected, that still puts it out to 25/26…
This is very ballpark and rough guess… even if only 150k are waiting for non-FS, that’s at the end of 2025 sometime at best

this also doesn’t include anyone who put down deposits from November till now

 

[personage]

I have ordered a second Cybertruck in December 2023. No news on that. My guess is that it will take a few years.

 

[vinsk]

Increasing the production rate requires more resources, additional hiring, and possibly expanding the factory. I doubt any manufacturer will pursue these actions with sustainability in mind.

Look at the iPhones Apple launches every year. Except for last year's model, they're usually unavailable for at least 2-3 months unless you reserve one right on launch day. Apple keeps production steady because demand calms down a few months after the launch. For Tesla, the best-selling cars are 3 and Y, and maybe some other affordable models in the future. But after the initial rush for the Cybertruck settles, its demand will probably be lower than that of the S and X unless there's a big breakthrough in battery technology that can truly replace ICE trucks for towing and range for real truck work. I'm not sure if Elon Musk (EM) will drastically increase the production of the Cybertruck as promised after seeing the demand for the FS. Price is the most important factor here which unfortunately will play a crucial role in production numbers in coming years.

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