4680 dry cathode battery for the CyberTruck. When and what range?

[CTOWannabe]

I’m sure it will happen. They are racing to bring the price down and offer an advantage over the growing competition, whether it be price, FSD or more range. If it doesn’t happen in the 4th quarter it will happen sometime early next year. I’m cancelling my order because of this news. Production capacity is steadily increasing and to keep demand up they will need to drop the price and improve upon the specs.

Wow it's spooky how your analysis lines up with my own.

I think that they had to open the waiting list up to everyone speaks volumes. I think the waiting list was like 2million at one point? But no doubt raising the price by 40k and lowering the range by 40% was going to keep the number of conversions down a good bit. But if the 2million number is to be believed, and maybe there are say 50k cyber trucks out there, that means the conversion rate was an abysmal .0025%!

Dont get me wrong. They did the right thing. You hyper charge those early adopters that will pay a premium to get it first. But that pool seems to be fast drying up. Which means prices will have to come down and/or range and other features will have to improve.

That said, you do not have to cancel in that your reservation just sits if you dont use it and you can trigger it later. Then again, if you want your $100 back, why not, since there is now essentially no line for the truck.

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[Crissa]

For me, I have a regular 240mile trip (one way, so 480 round trip) i take 20 times a year, and there are no super chargers in the middle. The posted speed limits are 85mph, and average traffic runs at 95mph.

There's a route with 85mph that's 240 miles with no Superchargers?

And you drive 6 hours round-trip with no pee breaks?

-Crissa

 

[CTOWannabe]

There's a route with 85mph that's 240 miles with no Superchargers?

And you drive 6 hours round-trip with no pee breaks?

-Crissa

It's not 85mph the entire way, but average traffic speed is about 80-95 along most of the route. It does have superchargers, but the 250kwh charging places are a useless 40miles away from where I start (so when I get there I would still have 80+% charge) or stretch to about 175miles from where I'm traveling, which is very uncomfortable because the CT range at 85mph is probably around 180ish from what I've seen--and because if for some reason that charger is down or out, it's become an all or nothing bet. That's cutting it too close for my taste.

Drive time up is about 3-3.5hrs depending on traffic/accidents. Sometimes we go straight there with no stops, other times we stop once for coffee/breaks. I don't mind stopping once each per 240mile leg. When we get to our destination I'd like to have say 20miles of range and the destination has plenty of chargers (and obviously when we get home we are fine charing there). Obviously if there was a spot say 100 miles in it would be perfect.

 

[Woodrick]

It's not 85mph the entire way, but average traffic speed is about 80-95 along most of the route. It does have superchargers, but the 250kwh charging places are a useless 40miles away from where I start (so when I get there I would still have 80+% charge) or stretch to about 175miles from where I'm traveling, which is very uncomfortable because the CT range at 85mph is probably around 180ish from what I've seen--and because if for some reason that charger is down or out, it's become an all or nothing bet. That's cutting it too close for my taste.

Drive time up is about 3-3.5hrs depending on traffic/accidents. Sometimes we go straight there with no stops, other times we stop once for coffee/breaks. I don't mind stopping once each per 240mile leg. When we get to our destination I'd like to have say 20miles of range and the destination has plenty of chargers (and obviously when we get home we are fine charing there). Obviously if there was a spot say 100 miles in it would be perfect.

That's Range Anxiety 101.

Did you know that Tesla will remove Superchargers from the map if they aren't available? The probability of a Supercharger being unavailable really is 0%.

You are doing a great job making up excuses. Why not be adventurous and try it?
You can never do it if you don't try it.

 

[Crissa]

That seems a very precise route to go 175 and miss all the Superchargers.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

“Think they need” is highly presumptuous, so is your valuation of edge case. I can call your case something too, but will refrain.

I was covering all cases. Some people actually need more than 300 miles, some people just think they need more than 300 miles but could easily find out they were wrong. And other people don't need more than 300 miles at all (and they know it). Nothing wrong with describing all situations that apply.

Also I guess people buying the 400+ mile model S and 350 mile range model 3/Y etc are all “edge” cases ?

I definitely didn't say all buyers of EVs with more than 300 miles are edge cases.

But most of those buyers could function just fine with only 300 miles of range, in most use cases they would not miss the extra 50-100 miles at all. In some use cases, not having more than 300 miles would be a moderate inconvenience. And in a very few cases the extra 50-100 miles would be the difference between being able to do it, or not. But those are extreme edge cases.

None of this is difficult to understand, unless you are incapable of understanding the full range of use cases of all motorists.

 

[HaulingAss]

That said, you do not have to cancel in that your reservation just sits if you dont use it and you can trigger it later. Then again, if you want your $100 back, why not, since there is now essentially no line for the truck.

It would be foolish to get a refund on your $100 reservation if you are waiting for lower cost versions. Because that reservation will get your foot in the door ahead of all the newcomers as Tesla drops the price!

Duh!

 

[ChristoN]

Wow it's spooky how your analysis lines up with my own.

I think that they had to open the waiting list up to everyone speaks volumes. I think the waiting list was like 2million at one point? But no doubt raising the price by 40k and lowering the range by 40% was going to keep the number of conversions down a good bit. But if the 2million number is to be believed, and maybe there are say 50k cyber trucks out there, that means the conversion rate was an abysmal .0025%!

Dont get me wrong. They did the right thing. You hyper charge those early adopters that will pay a premium to get it first. But that pool seems to be fast drying up. Which means prices will have to come down and/or range and other features will have to improve.

That said, you do not have to cancel in that your reservation just sits if you dont use it and you can trigger it later. Then again, if you want your $100 back, why not, since there is now essentially no line for the truck.

lol. I would loose my 1000 dollars. My beast delivery date is Oct/Dec. but I think I’m still going to cancel it.

 

[CTOWannabe]

That's Range Anxiety 101.

Did you know that Tesla will remove Superchargers from the map if they aren't available? The probability of a Supercharger being unavailable really is 0%.

You are doing a great job making up excuses. Why not be adventurous and try it?
You can never do it if you don't try it.

Thanks for your diagnosis. I’ll pass on it. I’ll refer you to some trips people took to camp and the truck couldn’t make it. It’s not anxiety, it’s physics.

 

[CTOWannabe]

I was covering all cases. Some people actually need more than 300 miles, some people just think they need more than 300 miles but could easily find out they were wrong. And other people don't need more than 300 miles at all (and they know it). Nothing wrong with describing all situations that apply.




I definitely didn't say all buyers of EVs with more than 300 miles are edge cases.

But most of those buyers could function just fine with only 300 miles of range, in most use cases they would not miss the extra 50-100 miles at all. In some use cases, not having more than 300 miles would be a moderate inconvenience. And in a very few cases the extra 50-100 miles would be the difference between being able to do it, or not. But those are extreme edge cases.

None of this is difficult to understand, unless you are incapable of understanding the full range of use cases of all motorists.

Of course your sense of most or edge is “the one true way”to see it. ?

No other percentage break outs are possible. ?

Got it. ?

 

[Crissa]

Of course your sense of most or edge is “the one true way”to see it. ?

No other percentage break outs are possible. ?

Got it. ?

'Most' and 'edge case' are literal things that can be calculated.

-Crissa

 

[3cyberbeast]

Get the cost down. Try to improve margins. Then sell volume story to the street we call Wall.

A drop in price for sure! For Tesla!

 

[HaulingAss]

Of course your sense of most or edge is “the one true way”to see it. ?

No other percentage break outs are possible. ?

Got it. ?

I didn't try to break out percentages, but it's plainly obvious that most people are not driving enough each day to stress the Cybertruck's range. The daily mileage of the average motorist is only 37 miles per day!

You sound unhappy that most people don't require 300+ miles of range in their EVs. But that's just a fact.

 

[Woodrick]

Thanks for your diagnosis. I’ll pass on it. I’ll refer you to some trips people took to camp and the truck couldn’t make it. It’s not anxiety, it’s physics.

I'll show you people that have run out of gas. Your point is?

It does not sound as if it is physics in your scenario, it sounds as if it is your preference.

What's the route? Let is take a look.

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